Arctic to become focal point for geopolitical tensions

For at least the past 20 years, there has been a recurring theme focused on the Arctic. Reports would highlight the receding ice and the potential opening of a new shipping route, which would open the door to greater competition between the world’s biggest economies. This route, which was supposed to short-circuit the Suez Canal and put even more power into Russian hands, has so far failed to materialize.

The Arctic shipping lanes’ availability are still too uncertain and proper planning cannot be done without knowing the exact times in the year that the ice will recede enough to allow ships to pass through. Researchers state that, by 2030, there will be passages available throughout the year due to a reduction in the amount of ice. Just like many predictions around climate change, we cannot be sure, but what we can be sure of is the resurgence of Russia as an influential power in the East.

So, it is not climate change or navigation routes that have reignited the debate around the Arctic, but Russia’s new posturing over the last decade. The war in Ukraine has had an impact, but there is a clear will from Russia and maybe also China to reassert strong control over this territory. This is why we went from decades of collaboration and treating the Arctic like a space project, in which humanity collaborates in the hunt for new resources and benefits, to a new era of competition and even confrontation.

There is a clear will from Russia and maybe also China to reassert strong control over this territory

Khaled Abou Zahr

The five Arctic littoral states are Canada, Denmark, Norway, Russia and the US. China is considered a near-Arctic state. And there is undoubtedly, under the umbrella of potential new trade routes, growing collaboration and dialogue between China and Russia in order to establish greater control over the area. It is undoubtedly a strategic geographic zone as, even if access is unreliable due to the ice, it can still provide a direct route to Europe and the US.

Maritime routes are not the only interest, as natural resources are also of importance. It is estimated that the Arctic region holds 13 percent of the world’s undiscovered oil reserves and 30 percent of its undiscovered natural gas. Moreover, minerals such as rare earth elements, nickel, platinum, gold and diamonds are believed to be abundant. It is worth noting that these minerals are key to the defense and tech industries.

Today, a UN convention determines each of the littoral country’s territorial seas and, beyond this, their exclusive economic zones. But claims from countries such as Russia and Canada have been lodged with the UN to extend their control over certain areas based on various geological evidence.

According to a 2020 report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Russia has reopened 50 Soviet-era Arctic military posts, including 13 airbases, 10 radar stations and 20 border outposts. Other sources indicate that Moscow has deployed new hypersonic missiles and special brigades. Additionally, Russia maintains the world’s largest fleet of icebreakers, including nuclear-powered vessels.

In response, Washington in 2023 rebranded its Thule Air Base as Pituffik Space Base and expanded the operations of its Second Fleet in the North Atlantic. Canada, Denmark and Norway have also enhanced their respective Arctic defenses, but not close to the level of Russia.

A greater Russian and Chinese military presence in the Arctic might jeopardize the US’ advantage

Khaled Abou Zahr

China has also deployed icebreakers and is expanding its influence through scientific research stations and economic partnerships with Russia. However, this presence, just like in space, could become dual-use. Indeed, these infrastructure outposts and this fleet buildup could also be used for military purposes.

As a result, it is not surprising to hear President Donald Trump discuss the topic of Greenland. Unfortunately, Europe does not have the muscle to balance out a Russia-China alliance in this area. A Beijing-Moscow pact would allow it to dictate the future of the entire zone. While Denmark and Europe in general are trying to figure out how to best respond to Trump’s plans for Greenland, they understand that they would be unable to protect it against Russia and China.

Most of the military protection for Denmark and Norway in the Arctic is provided by NATO. Moreover, both countries only spend about 1.6 percent of their gross domestic product on defense, well below the NATO target of 2 percent and Trump’s stated future goal of 5 percent. This opens the door for a new formula for the US.

From a military perspective, one of the strengths of the US has always been that its territory has never been invaded. This has allowed it to support Europe during the world wars and conduct other wars without being targeted itself. A greater Russian and Chinese military presence in the Arctic might jeopardize this advantage in an all-out war scenario. The same logic applies to the Panama Canal. Hence, Washington is not kidding about these issues, neither with its enemies nor its allies.

Toward the end of the Cold War, Russian and US icebreakers symbolized their countries’ newfound cooperation. They even jointly attempted to rescue three gray whales that were trapped in the Arctic ice, unable to reach open water. This rescue effort, known as Operation Breakthrough, was even dramatized in a movie. Yet, as competition and even confrontation reemerges across the globe, the Arctic once again becomes a focal point of tension. This will continue whether or not the ice recedes enough to allow for reliable trade routes. Collaboration in the Arctic, and space too, will return when the new order is determined.

• Khaled Abou Zahr is the founder of SpaceQuest Ventures, a space-focused investment platform. He is CEO of EurabiaMedia and editor of Al-Watan Al-Arabi.