A new dimension in Turkiye-US relations

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan’s discussions with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio in Washington last week covered a wide range of issues including defense, trade, and regional concerns.

Diplomatic corridors in Ankara and Washington are busy preparing for visits by the two presidents, Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Donald Trump. Last week they had a phone conversation described by Turkish officials as “highly positive” and by the US as “transformational.” Turkish-American relations are clearly taking a new direction and adopting a new dimension

The relationship between the two NATO allies is often framed around structural issues that include a long list of grievances on both sides. With each change of US administration, these issues have remained unresolved, or in many cases worsened.

One is the Syrian Arab Republic. Fidan said Trump should withdraw US troops from Syria, which would be cost-effective for Washington. Turkiye is clearly signaling to the US that regional countries are taking full responsibility for combating Daesh, so there is no longer a need for the US to legitimize its presence in Syria or its support for the PKK under the pretext of fighting the militants. Trump may be convinced, as the dynamics in Syria have dramatically shifted in favor of Turkiye, a country that is now increasingly important for the US to cooperate with.

A second point of divergence concerns Russia. Under the Biden administration, Ankara’s close political and economic ties with Moscow were a source of tension. However, Trump views Moscow through a different lens, which Ankara sees as an opportunity. When examining the leadership styles of Russian, Turkish, and American leaders, it becomes clear that there are more commonalities than differences in how they approach politics. Ankara and Washington seem keen to capitalize on the personal ties between their leaders, as Turkiye and Russia do.

If a new era in Turkish-American relations is to begin, it must be built on a sincere convergence that respects both national and regional interests.

Dr. Sinem Cengiz

A third unresolved issue are the obstacles to defense industry cooperation. Ankara expects the US to lift sanctions and start technical talks on the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act and the F-35 program. During his first term, Trump refrained from imposing sanctions on Turkiye following its acquisition of the Russian S-400 air defense missile system in 2019. However, he eventually imposed sanctions in 2020, when relations reached a low point. Several issues contributed to this deterioration, including US cooperation with the Kurdish militias in Syria that are considered a threat by Ankara, Trump’s recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, and the Abraham Accords. Ankara’s strong reactions to these developments clearly influenced Trump’s decision to impose sanctions and remove Turkiye from the international F-35 program, in whch it was both a manufacturer and a buyer.

Despite these challenges, defense cooperation is the cornerstone of Turkish-American relations. Turkiye’s admission to NATO received substantial support from the US, due to Turkiye’s perceived military strength and its strategic position. Especially in the current geopolitical climate, both states are aware that they do not have the luxury of allowing this cooperation to deteriorate. Not surprisingly, Rubio sought Turkiye’s support for peace initiatives in Ukraine.

During Fidan’s visit, Erdogan said Turkiye and the US should and would achieve meaningful cooperation for the sake of regional stability “despite all the challenges, and despite the lobbies seeking to poison the cooperation between our two countries.” This highlighted the role of lobbies in shaping Turkish-American relations.

The US political system is structured in a way that allows pressure groups and lobbies to exert considerable influence over the policymaking process. Countries aiming to influence US foreign policy often lobby Congress or the White House. The Armenian, Greek, and Jewish lobbies are particularly significant, especially in shaping Turkish-American relations. The Armenian lobby’s focus is on issues related to Turkiye and Azerbaijan, while the Greek lobby centers on disputes in Turkish-Greek relations, such as the Aegean Sea and Cyprus. The Jewish lobby, which historically supported Turkish-Israeli relations, has shifted its stance because of deteriorating relations, particularly regarding the Gaza war.

The central point remains how Turkiye and the US prioritize material interests over politics. Fidan’s visit took place amid the biggest protests in Turkiye in over a decade, sparked by the arrest of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoglu and other opposition figures. The US State Department said it would “not comment on the internal decision-making processes of another country.” This was notable, as the US would typically seize any opportunity to comment on Turkish domestic politics. This clearly reflects the Trump administration’s pragmatic approach to foreign policy and its focus on material interests rather than politics.

If a new era in Turkish-American relations is to begin, it must be built on a sincere convergence that respects both national and regional interests. Only then can such convergence lead to a meaningful shift in Turkish-American relations and the broader Middle East. However, in Turkish-American relations, every convergence seems to carry a hidden divergence. The devil that lies in the detail is the unpredictability of the Trump administration’s policies and the uncertain evolution of regional dynamics.

*Dr. Sinem Cengiz is a Turkish political analyst who specializes in Turkiye’s relations with the Middle East. X: @SinemCngz