All eyes on Putin for next step to Ukraine peace

Global events can move quickly. Just two weeks ago, the world watched as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky had a heated exchange with US President Donald Trump and Vice President J.D. Vance in the Oval Office. A planned rare earths mineral deal was scrapped at the last minute, and Zelensky was sent out of the White House in an unprecedented diplomatic standoff.

But hard work and sincere diplomacy can pay off. Behind the scenes, both sides worked tirelessly to repair the relationship, culminating in a high-stakes meeting in Jeddah this week that brought the US-Ukraine relationship back on track and set the stage for what could be the first meaningful step toward ending Russia’s three-year invasion of Ukraine.

Trump has been clear about his desire to end the war, but since returning to office in January he has learned that this is easier said than done. The meeting in Jeddah was the first concrete step in that process. One of Trump’s biggest criticisms of Ukraine during the heated White House exchange was that he did not believe Zelensky was sincere about wanting peace. After Jeddah, that perception has changed. The US and Ukraine agreed to a temporary 30-day ceasefire on land, at sea, and in the air — a deal that could be extended if all parties agree. However, Kyiv would not implement it unless Moscow agreed to do the same. Forty-eight hours later, Russian President Vladimir Putin said he supported the idea of a ceasefire but added conditions that make its implementation uncertain.

The US and Ukraine also finalized the draft of the minerals deal that had been abandoned at the White House. Trump has even invited Zelensky back to the Oval Office, signaling a major turnaround in their strained relationship. As Secretary of State Marco Rubio said: “The ball is in Russia’s court.”

Last week I made my fourth visit to Ukraine since Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022. Anyone who has spent time there knows that Ukrainians want an end to the war. They endure nightly air raids, missile strikes, and drone attacks. They also understand the long-term threat that Russia poses if there are no real security guarantees. For those of us who have seen wartime Ukraine firsthand, it has always been obvious that the Ukrainian people want the fighting to end. Yet some around Trump question whether Zelensky shares this view. After Jeddah, there is no longer any doubt. It is now up to Russia to decide whether to pursue peace.

There is still a long way to go, and plenty of opportunities for setbacks. Even if a temporary ceasefire were agreed on, the war would be far from over. The night before the Jeddah talks, Ukraine launched its largest drone strike yet, sending nearly 400 to hit targets as far away as Moscow. Meanwhile Russia has continued its relentless bombardment of Ukraine with missiles and drones on a near-nightly basis.

Trump has been clear about his desire to end the war, but since returning to office in January he has learned that this is easier said than done.

Luke Coffey

When I visited the front lines in the Kherson region, it was clear that decisions made in Jeddah, Washington, or Moscow are often irrelevant to those fighting on the ground. For the soldiers in the trenches, survival is the only priority. Until an actual ceasefire is implemented — not just discussed — nothing will change for them.

Another major development in the war, and one that represents a significant setback for Ukraine, is Russia’s counteroffensive in its Kursk region. Ukraine launched a surprise attack last August and captured a sizeable portion of territory. The idea was to hold on to this land as a bargaining chip for future negotiations. But over the past seven months, Russian forces — bolstered by thousands of North Korean troops — have steadily regained control. Last week it appears that Moscow had completed its recapture of all the territory Ukraine seized.

It will be up to future historians to assess whether the Kursk offensive accomplished tactical objectives or if it was a strategic miscalculation. In the short term, however, it does not help Ukraine’s position at the negotiating table. The loss of Kursk weakens its leverage.

After traveling around Ukraine this past week, I am certain of one thing: the Ukrainian people are exhausted from the war. But they also know they have no choice but to keep fighting as long as Russia continues its aggression. If there is to be any lasting peace, it must include security guarantees ensuring that Russia will not attack again. This is the biggest challenge for Kyiv. Trump has ruled out NATO membership for Ukraine and has shifted the responsibility for security guarantees on to Europe. However, because the U.S. and most European countries operate under the same security umbrella, in practice it would be difficult to separate American and European commitments.

The road to peace is long, and the war is far from over. The ongoing fighting in Donetsk, Kursk, and Kherson proves that reality. The biggest question now is whether the progress made in Jeddah will hold. There is always the risk that Trump is looking for a short-term political victory rather than a lasting peace agreement. If the ceasefire collapses, the war will probably escalate again, and Ukraine may find itself in an even more difficult position than before.

For now, all eyes are on Moscow. The coming weeks will determine whether Russia is serious about peace or if the war will continue indefinitely.

• Luke Coffey is a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute. X: @LukeDCoffey