Weaponized cyber realm could spell unimaginable doom to all

Every day I look with fear at news reports of cyber security incidents of hacking, online threats and infrastructure damage — intentional or unintentional — across key regions of the world. Some are said to emanate from hostile states, others from criminal actors on behalf of states or simply committed by gangs intent on theft, blackmail or onward sale of sensitive data to be used by third parties in an increasingly dark side of the tech world and internet.

Not a single day passes without a report of another hack or attempt to steal data and penetrate key infrastructure to test vulnerability and/or to exert pressure, or to simply disrupt or sow chaos. In recent weeks, the US deputy national security advisor for cyber and emerging technology, Anne Neuberger, has confirmed that state hackers have compromised telecommunications infrastructure across the US as part of a massive espionage campaign affecting dozens of countries and a multitude of companies. This is to exploit vulnerability in their system, harvest data or simply enhance penetrability of often civilian infrastructure like telecommunication connectivity or health infrastructure, surely with the aim of using it as a weapon of coercion or maybe even war.

On this side of the Atlantic, the new UK head of the National Cyber Security Centre, Richard Horne, revealed in a report this week that enemy digital operations emanating from Russian “aggression and recklessness” and China’s “highly sophisticated” digital operations have trebled.

The NCSC’s annual report shows that the wide ranging danger is underestimated by the public as well as private sector. Horne calls for his country “to increase the pace to keep ahead of adversaries.”

He said: “There is no room for complacency about the severity of state-led threats or the volume of the threat posed by cyber criminals,” and added the “defense and resilience of critical infrastructure, supply chains, the public sector and wider economy must improve.” He cites examples of hacks that affected the British library in 2023, and another incident in 2024 when state-sponsored gangs carried out ransomware attacks to disrupt the UK’s health service.

Mechanical systems can be hijacked by those with malicious intent who find loopholes in the many layers of digital defenses

Mohamed Chebaro

But could state and regulatory bodies keep up with and control or limit those threats? And at what cost, in an age of dwindling resources and the continued blurring of lines between what could be considered private sector and sensitive state infrastructure, often built and managed by huge international corporations with government clients?

More dangerous is that such warnings often coincide with reports of serious intentional or unintentional damage affecting critical infrastructure where authorities were often unable to find sufficient proof of malicious intent.

Recently some Baltic undersea telecom fiber-optic communications cables were severed, raising suspicions of sabotage. One was an internet link between Lithuania and Sweden’s Gotland Island, and the second was a cable connecting Helsinki to the German port of Rostock. Investigators could not be certain if a Chinese bulk carrier that left a Russian port was responsible, despite the Chinese authorities expressing readiness to cooperate with investigations.

Similar suspicious incidents affected that same region in 2022 and 2023 after the war in Ukraine began. Gas pipelines and undersea cables linking Finland to Estonia were damaged, in addition to the famous incident that damaged the Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 undersea pipelines, used to pump gas to Germany, in September 2022.

All the above incidents, exposing the vulnerabilities of the western world, have been hard to pin on one party, along with other specific acts of sabotage. But there are inferences and circumstantial information that could have come from the pages of a spy thriller.

Questions should be posed about whether we are seeing yet another form of warfare developing, and whether or not nations are simply sleepwalking towards the next theaters of confrontation, or even doom for all. Could those committing hostile acts simply not exploit technological loopholes to attack countries and exert maximum pressure for geopolitical gains?

Consequently, events like those must concentrate minds, efforts and will to design and enforce a form of accountability, or to update existing guardrails nationally and internationally, or simply agree to new conventions that could spare those vital — mainly civilian — infrastructures, and push all to abide by international laws.

This is especially needed if there remains a consensus among countries and political leadership that our interconnected societies and open economies are still relevant. We live in a world that still benefits from the advantages of open skies and interlinked connectivity that delivers dividends for nearly everyone despite geostrategic shifts that rise and fall, resulting in changing priorities and competition over ever-shrinking resources.

The world should be able to conclude that the tech realm has had tremendous benefits for all and that digital technology, despite its many advantages, has innumerable downsides. Cell phones enable location tracking that erodes privacy. Data can be manipulated and destroyed. Mechanical systems can be hijacked by those with malicious intent who find loopholes in the many layers of digital defenses.

But as these technologies have become essential in our day-to-day lives and continue to boost economic growth, they remain vital for societal productivity, allowing all to access information at an unprecedented scale. 

Should reason therefore not prevail to limit the intrusion and weaponization of those systems for the safety of all? There is a need to neutralize the threats to digital services, tools, and infrastructure through global governance. After all, these are crucial for mankind and its continued existence and prosperity, despite them being attractive soft targets.

• Mohamed Chebaro is a British Lebanese journalist with more than 25 years of experience covering war, terrorism, defense, current affairs and diplomacy. He is also a media consultant and trainer.