Global growth rate slows to 2.6% in 2024 amid uneven recovery: UNCTAD

Global growth rate slows to 2.6% in 2024 amid uneven recovery: UNCTAD
UNCTAD revealed that the prevailing focus on inflation, which is overshadowing other critical issues like trade disruptions, climate change, and rising inequalities, is driving the economic slowdown in various countries. Shutterstock
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Updated 21 April 2024
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Global growth rate slows to 2.6% in 2024 amid uneven recovery: UNCTAD

Global growth rate slows to 2.6% in 2024 amid uneven recovery: UNCTAD

RIYADH: Global economic growth is anticipated to slow to 2.6 percent in 2024, with the UN Trade and Development agency highlighting an uneven post-pandemic financial recovery among countries. 

In its latest report, UNCTAD revealed that the prevailing focus on inflation, which is overshadowing other critical issues like trade disruptions, climate change, and rising inequalities, is driving the economic slowdown in various countries. 

The study also noted that Saudi Arabia’s economy is expected to increase by 2.7 percent in 2024, down 0.2 percent compared to its previous projection.  

In Asia, China’s economy is projected to grow 5 percent in 2024, while India’s output will expand by 6 percent, driven by substantial public investment and service sector growth. 

On the other hand, several European countries are expected to face an economic slowdown in 2024, with France, Germany, and Italy expected to grow at a moderate rate of 1.3 percent, 0.9 percent, and 0.8 percent, respectively. 

In North America, development remains relatively resilient, even though challenges continue. The US economy is projected to grow at 2 percent in 2024, reflecting concerns over high household debt levels, UNCTAD added. 

In South America, the economic growth is slowing, with Brazil expected to develop at 2.1 percent, hampered by external pressures and commodity dependence, while Argentina faces a 3.7 percent contraction due to inflation and complex debt negotiations. 

Additionally, the African economy will grow by 3 percent this year, with armed conflicts and climate impacts posing significant risks to several continental nations.  

The report also added that inequality in the labor market continues to rise post-pandemic, with workers in both developed and developing countries earning a reduced share of income. 

“This indicates that the benefits of economic growth are increasingly reaped by capital owners rather than by workers, widening wage and wealth gaps,” UNCTAD said.  

Earlier this month, the International Monetary Fund revealed that global economic growth, estimated at 3.2 percent in 2023, is projected to continue at the same pace in 2024 and 2025.  

IMF added that global headline inflation is forecasted to slip to 5.9 percent this year after 2023’s 6.8 percent average.  

However, the IMF warned that it is still too early to declare victory in the fight against inflation.


Hail region unveils 23 investment opportunities to drive economic growth 

Hail region unveils 23 investment opportunities to drive economic growth 
Updated 21 sec ago
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Hail region unveils 23 investment opportunities to drive economic growth 

Hail region unveils 23 investment opportunities to drive economic growth 

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s Hail region has launched 23 new investment opportunities for the first quarter of 2025, aiming to accelerate economic growth, boost private sector participation, and enhance service quality.

The Municipality of Hail unveiled various projects spanning residential, commercial, and service sectors. Among them are 11 sites earmarked for mixed-use residential and commercial developments, the Saudi Press Agency reported.

The plans include vehicle service centers, cafes, and commercial kiosks. They also feature a park, an educational facility, and a retail shop alongside an educational complex and a fuel station.

The initiative aligns with the Kingdom’s Vision 2030 strategy, designed to diversify the economy, empower the private sector, and improve urban living standards.

“These investment opportunities aim to meet the needs of the local community by providing advanced services that contribute to enhancing economic growth and attracting investments,” said Saud bin Fahd Al-Ali, assistant secretary for media and institutional communication at the Municipality of Hail, as quoted by SPA.

He emphasized the municipality’s commitment to helping investors, stating that they are providing “all necessary facilities and support to investors, with the aim of enhancing the investment environment in the region and achieving comprehensive and sustainable economic development” as part of efforts to align with the Kingdom’s Vision 2030.

He also encouraged local and international investors to visit the “Foras” platform to explore project details and learn how to apply.

The push comes as Hail emerges as a growing hub for business and tourism. The region welcomed more than 1.1 million visitors in the first half of 2024, including 170,000 international tourists. According to the Ministry of Tourism, over 907,000 of those arrivals were domestic travelers.

The surge in tourism has fueled demand for hospitality services, with licensed accommodations in Hail now offering around 2,600 rooms. This expansion supports the Kingdom’s broader efforts to strengthen tourism infrastructure and attract global visitors.

Hail is also set to become the fifth destination developed by the Saudi Tourism Investment Co., known as ASFAR — a Public Investment Fund-owned entity tasked with advancing tourism and leisure projects across the Kingdom.

Prospective investors can visit the “Foras” platform for application procedures, underscoring the municipality’s push to cultivate new business ventures and drive long-term regional development.


Global trade hits record $33tr in 2024, growing by 3.7%: UNCTAD 

Global trade hits record $33tr in 2024, growing by 3.7%: UNCTAD 
Updated 27 min 8 sec ago
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Global trade hits record $33tr in 2024, growing by 3.7%: UNCTAD 

Global trade hits record $33tr in 2024, growing by 3.7%: UNCTAD 

RIYADH: Global trade reached a record high of $33 trillion in 2024, marking a 3.7 percent increase from the previous year, driven by an uptick in the services sector. 

According to the latest Global Trade Update from the UN Conference on Trade and Development, services drove growth, rising 9 percent for the year and adding $700 billion — nearly 60 percent of total exchange expansion. 

Meanwhile, trade in goods grew 2 percent, contributing $500 billion. 

“This positive momentum is expected to continue into Q1 (first quarter) 2025, building on a global trade value of nearly $33 trillion in 2024,” the report said. 

UNCTAD’s analysis highlighted a continued shift in global trade dynamics, with developing countries — particularly China and India — outperforming their developed counterparts. 

While many advanced economies faced exchange contractions, emerging markets sustained momentum, bolstered by strong exports and domestic demand. 

China’s trade surplus expanded significantly in 2024, fueled by robust exports. Meanwhile, the US trade deficit widened, reflecting its growing reliance on imports. South-South trade, involving exchanges between developing economies, remained a key driver of global trade growth. 

Services trade booms  

Services trade outpaced goods trade in 2024, increasing by 9 percent and contributing approximately $700 billion to global exchange expansion. This sector’s resilience contrasts with goods trade, which rose by just 2 percent, adding around $500 billion. The fourth quarter saw services trade maintain strong momentum, while goods trade growth decelerated. 

Tariffs and trade barriers  

Despite overall growth, UNCTAD warns of significant trade barriers. High tariffs continue to hinder market access for developing countries, particularly in agriculture and manufacturing.  

“High import tariffs raise costs for businesses and consumers, potentially curbing growth and competitiveness,” the report said. 

It added that tariff escalation — where higher duties are imposed on processed goods than raw materials — remains a major obstacle to industrialization in developing economies. 

Agricultural exports from developing countries still face steep import duties, averaging nearly 20 percent under most-favored-nation treatment. Meanwhile, textile and apparel exports continue to be subjected to some of the highest tariff rates, limiting competitiveness. 

Uncertainty clouds 2025  

Looking ahead, UNCTAD warned that mounting geopolitical tensions, trade disputes, and protectionist policies could disrupt global exchange in 2025. The report identified several risk factors, including: 

Shifts in trade policy: Increasing protectionist measures, such as new tariffs targeting specific industries, may reshape global supply chains. 

Ongoing trade tensions: Major economies, including the US and China, continue to impose retaliatory tariffs, affecting global trade flows. 

Subsidies and industrial policies: Governments are prioritizing national industries, particularly green energy and critical minerals, which could impact international trade relations. 

Economic slowdown risks: Indicators such as declining demand for container shipping suggest potential trade contraction in the coming quarters. 

However, the analysis also noted potential tailwinds, including China’s planned economic stimulus and the expected easing of global inflation, which could support trade expansion. 

Sectoral trade trends 

Trade growth varied significantly across sectors in 2024. Office equipment and pharmaceuticals saw above-average growth, while the energy sector faced a sharp decline. In the third quarter, agri-food, communication equipment, and transport surged, whereas apparel and extractive industries weakened. 

Global trade imbalances  

The report highlighted growing trade imbalances, with the US maintaining the world’s largest trade deficit and China recording the highest surplus. The EU, which ran a deficit in previous years, returned to surplus in 2024, aided by shifts in energy trade.  

Bilateral trade imbalances, particularly between the US and China, remain significant, contributing to global economic uncertainty. 

As global trade enters 2025, policymakers face the challenge of balancing growth with rising protectionism. UNCTAD emphasized the importance of multilateral cooperation and strategic trade policies to sustain momentum and navigate emerging risks. 


US weighing in on Lebanon’s next central bank chief, sources say

US weighing in on Lebanon’s next central bank chief, sources say
Updated 16 March 2025
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US weighing in on Lebanon’s next central bank chief, sources say

US weighing in on Lebanon’s next central bank chief, sources say
  • US aims to curb Hezbollah’s influence in Lebanon’s banking
  • Candidates include Camille Abousleiman, Firas Abi-Nassif, Philippe Jabre

BEIRUT/WASHINGTON: The US is weighing in with Lebanon’s government on the selection of the country’s next central bank governor in a bid to curtail corruption and illicit financing for armed group Hezbollah through Lebanon’s banking system, five sources familiar with the issue said. 
Washington’s feedback on the candidates for the top role in shaping Lebanon’s monetary policy is the latest example of the US’ unusually hands-on approach to the Middle Eastern country, where a more than five-year financial crisis has collapsed the economy. 
It also demonstrates the US’ continued focus on weakening Hezbollah, the Iran-backed group whose sway over the Lebanese government has been reduced after the group was pummelled by Israel in last year’s war. 
Since then, Lebanon has elected US-backed Joseph Aoun as president, and a new cabinet without a direct role for Hezbollah has taken power. That government must now fill vacant posts — including at the central bank, run by an interim governor since July 2023. 
The US is reviewing the profiles of a handful of candidates for the role, according to three Lebanese sources briefed on the issue, one Western diplomat and an official from US President Donald Trump’s administration.
The sources spoke to Reuters on condition of anonymity to discuss Washington’s role in the selection process, the details of which have not been previously reported.
US officials met with some potential candidates in Washington and at the US embassy in Lebanon, two of the Lebanese sources and the Trump administration official said.
The Lebanese sources, who were briefed on the meetings, said the US officials asked candidates questions, including how they would fight “terrorist financing” through Lebanon’s banking system and if they were willing to confront Hezbollah.
The State Department, White House and the offices of Lebanon’s president and prime minister did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
The Trump administration official said the meetings were part of “normal diplomacy” — but said the US was making its guidance on candidates’ qualifications clear to the Lebanese government.
“The guidelines are, no Hezbollah and nobody who has been caught up in corruption. This is essential from an economic perspective,” the official told Reuters.
“You need somebody who is going to implement reform, demand reform, and refuse to look the other way whenever people try to do business as usual in Lebanon,” the official said.
MAJOR ROLE IN REFORM
The Lebanese sources said the candidates being seriously considered included former minister Camille Abousleiman, Firas Abi-Nassif, head of an investment firm, and Philippe Jabre and Karim Souaid, both heads of their own asset management firms.
The next governor will play a major part in any economic and financial reforms, which Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam have pledged to prioritize to help Lebanon emerge from a devastating financial meltdown that began in 2019.
Triggered by widespread corruption and profligate spending by the governing political elite, the economic crisis impoverished most Lebanese, demolished the Lebanese pound and brought the banking system to a standstill. Lebanon’s new government is looking to resume talks with the International Monetary Fund for a financing program, but the reforms remain a prerequisite. Western and Arab countries have also set reforms as a condition to provide any reconstruction support to Lebanon, large swathes of which were left in ruins by Israel’s military campaign last year.
In that vein, US officials were discussing the candidates for central bank governor with Saudi Arabia, according to the Western diplomat and the Trump administration official.
The Saudi government’s media office did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
The incoming governor would replace interim chief Wassim Mansouri, who has been overseeing the bank since the 30-year tenure of longtime head Riad Salameh ended in disgrace in 2023.
Through most of his time as central bank chief, Salameh was feted as a financial wizard and enjoyed the backing of the US, which has a keen interest in the position because it oversees Lebanon’s broader banking system and helps keep it compliant with US laws preventing the financing of groups designated as “terrorist” factions, including Hezbollah.
But Lebanon’s financial collapse tainted Salameh’s legacy. A month after he left office in 2023, Salameh was sanctioned by the United States, Britain and Canada, which accused him of corrupt actions to enrich himself and his associates, and is facing charges of financial crimes in Lebanon and broad. Last year, Lebanon was placed on a financial watchdog’s “grey list” after failing to address concerns about terrorism financing and money laundering through its financial system.


Pakistan keeps fuel prices unchanged, plans power tariff cuts for public relief

Pakistan keeps fuel prices unchanged, plans power tariff cuts for public relief
Updated 16 March 2025
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Pakistan keeps fuel prices unchanged, plans power tariff cuts for public relief

Pakistan keeps fuel prices unchanged, plans power tariff cuts for public relief
  • Shehbaz Sharif says a comprehensive strategy is being finalized to reduce electricity charges
  • Fuel prices and electricity tariffs are sensitive issues after high inflation rates recorded in 2023

ISLAMABAD: Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif announced on Saturday the government will maintain current petroleum product prices for the another fortnight and utilize the resulting fiscal space to implement a reduction in electricity tariffs, aiming to provide relief to consumers.

Fuel prices in Pakistan are adjusted fortnightly, reflecting global energy market fluctuations and the rupee-dollar exchange rate, to pass on the net effect to consumers.

Since fuel is a key input for thermal power generation, keeping petroleum prices unchanged can create fiscal space for the government to lower electricity tariffs and making it more affordable for consumers.

“We have decided to maintain petroleum prices at their previous levels and transfer the entire financial advantage to the public through reduced electricity tariffs,” the prime minister said in a statement released by his office.

“This measure, among many others, will lead to a meaningful decrease in electricity rates.”

Sharif also said that a comprehensive and effective strategy was being finalized to reduce electricity charges, with details to be announced in the coming weeks.

“Since assuming office, we pledged to prioritize public relief,” he said. “This relief will not only lower electricity prices but also have an overall impact on inflation, leading to a further decline.”

Both fuel prices and electricity tariffs are sensitive issues in Pakistan, which experienced an inflation rate hitting about 38 percent in 2023.

Subsequent stringent monetary policies have significantly reduced inflation, with the latest figures indicating a drop to 1.5 percent in February, marking a nine-year low.


The rise of ‘phygital’ — Saudi e-commerce industry sees Ramadan rush

The rise of ‘phygital’ — Saudi e-commerce industry sees Ramadan rush
Updated 15 March 2025
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The rise of ‘phygital’ — Saudi e-commerce industry sees Ramadan rush

The rise of ‘phygital’ — Saudi e-commerce industry sees Ramadan rush
  • Convergence of cultural roots with digital convenience is reshaping consumer expectations across the Kingdom

RIYADH: Embracing the essence of tradition while adapting to the evolving demands of a digital era, Ramadan in Saudi Arabia reflects a fusion of heritage and modernity.

The convergence of cultural roots with digital convenience is reshaping consumer expectations across the Kingdom, which has a population of 38 million, of whom 70 percent are under the age of 35.

Brands are now tasked with infusing core values such as personalization, community engagement, and generosity into the shopping journey to resonate with this tech-savvy and culturally rich demographic.

E-commerce rush in Saudi Arabia during holy month of Ramadan

According to Janahan Tharmaratnam, partner at Arthur D. Little Middle East, the Kingdom’s digital commerce market — valued at $14 billion in 2023 — is projected to reach $20 billion in 2025, a compound annual growth rate of 20 percent.

“The Ramadan period alone accounts for 35-40 percent higher transaction volumes, driven by a surge in demand for groceries, electronics, fashion, and gifting,” Tharmaratnam said. “The post-pandemic shift to online shopping has solidified consumer reliance on e-commerce, with 77 percent of Saudis now preferring digital-first shopping experiences.”

He went on to say that growth is not just focused on demand — it is also about fulfillment. 

The Ramadan period alone accounts for 35-40 percent higher transaction volumes, driven by a surge in demand for groceries, electronics, fashion, and gifting.

Janahan Tharmaratnam, Partner at Arthur D. Little Middle East

“Logistics networks must scale by 40 percent to meet the Ramadan surge, with nighttime deliveries increasing by 50 percent compared to other months,” he explained, adding that successful businesses do not just ramp up promotions; they optimize artificial intelligence-driven demand forecasting, reduce delivery times by 30 to 40 percent, and integrate micro-fulfillment centers across urban hubs to ensure inventory is closer to consumers.

This shift from centralized warehouses to hyper-local distribution is key to sustaining Ramadan’s retail boom, according to Tharmaratnam.

“A prime example is Jahez, Saudi Arabia’s homegrown quick-commerce platform, which experienced a 70-percent surge in Ramadan orders last year. Instead of simply adding more riders, Jahez used AI-driven logistics to optimize routes, reducing delivery times by 25 percent,” he said. “The platform also expanded partnerships with neighborhood retailers, ensuring customers had access to essentials without supply-chain bottlenecks. This kind of data-driven agility will define the next phase of e-commerce in Saudi Arabia.”

Tharmaratnam said that mobile commerce dominates, accounting for over 90 percent of e-commerce transactions during Ramadan, while social commerce, via WhatsApp, Instagram, and TikTok, now drives 30 percent of online sales.

He went on to emphasize that the real disruption is the shift from transactional commerce to culturally embedded, experience-driven engagement, as traditional Ramadan shopping has focused on physical markets and communal buying.

The partner stressed that today, leading e-commerce players curate AI-driven experiences that align with consumer sentiment. From AI-powered gifting suggestions to influencer-led Ramadan livestreams, brands that focus on storytelling rather than hard-selling see higher conversion rates and customer retention beyond Ramadan.

“A great example is Namshi, a leading Saudi fashion e-commerce platform. Last year, Namshi saw a 45-percent boost in sales conversion rates by combining cultural resonance with digital engagement,” Tharmaratnam said. “The platform launched AI-powered Eid styling recommendations, influencer-led ‘Suhoor Lookbooks,’ and interactive content that blended fashion with tradition. By seamlessly integrating Ramadan traditions into the online shopping journey, Namshi transformed shopping from a necessity into a personalized, experience-driven event.”

Ramadan traditions and online shopping behaviors

There is no doubt that the fundamental values of Ramadan, such as generosity, family bonding, and the distinct pattern of late-night gatherings, have a significant impact on online shopping trends in Saudi Arabia.

According to Joe Abi Akl, partner and head of Oliver Wyman’s retail and consumer practice for  India, the Middle East and Africa, there is a significant spike in demand for essential groceries, traditional fashion and thoughtful gifts, with peak activity occurring post-iftar. 

Expect a significant leap in logistics efficiency, with same-day or even instant delivery becoming more prevalent.

Joe Abi, Akl Partner and head of Oliver Wyman’s retail and consumer practice

“Savvy businesses are capitalizing on this by crafting culturally resonant marketing campaigns, curating Ramadan-specific bundles, and ensuring swift, reliable delivery that accommodates the altered daily schedules. This includes leveraging suhoor and iftar time-focused promotions,” Akl said.

Ian Khan, a technology futurist and author, noted that Ramadan is not just a time of spiritual reflection, it is also a season of significant consumer activity — and retailers in Saudi Arabia are capitalizing on this in remarkable ways.

“Take Mazeed, for example — this e-commerce platform has curated products from over 8,000 local merchants, offering items that deeply resonate with Ramadan traditions. 

“This isn’t just about sales; it’s about creating meaningful shopping experiences that align with cultural values,” Khan said.

Opportunities Ramadan e-commerce poses for businesses

Ramadan presents a prime opportunity for Saudi businesses to forge deeper customer connections through bespoke, culturally sensitive campaigns and exclusive loyalty programs.

Oliver Wyman’s Akl said that the heightened online traffic during this period allows for significant brand building and the refinement of operational efficiencies, particularly in fulfillment and delivery.

“This is also the perfect time to explore cutting-edge technologies like AI-powered chat commerce — which offers personalized customer service — and strategic influencer partnerships that resonate with the Saudi audience,” he added.

ADL’s Tharmaratnam suggested Ramadan is an opportunity not just to increase sales, but to build enduring digital-engagement strategies. 

HIGHLIGHT

Mobile commerce accounts for over 90 percent of e-commerce transactions during Ramadan, while social commerce, via WhatsApp, Instagram, and TikTok, now drives 30 percent of online sales.

“The Kingdom’s population growth — 2.5 percent annually — and urban expansion are driving a fundamental shift in how businesses approach fulfillment, customer experience, and personalization. Instead of treating Ramadan as a short-term promotional window, brands that invest in AI-driven customer retention strategies and logistics optimization will see sustained post-Ramadan growth,” Tharmaratnam said.

“The biggest disruption comes from AI-driven conversational commerce. With WhatsApp and chatbot-based shopping now accounting for 25 percent of digital transactions, brands must rethink how they engage customers,” he added.

Moreover, supply-chain transparency is becoming a differentiator. Real-time delivery tracking and blockchain-enabled halal verification will build trust in Ramadan purchases, especially in the $6 billion halal food and fashion market, the ADL partner highlighted.

“An example of this is Cenomi, Saudi Arabia’s largest retail group, which seamlessly blends physical and digital commerce. By integrating augmented reality shopping experiences, in-store pickup for online orders, and AI-driven product recommendations, Cenomi saw a 30-percent Ramadan sales boost in 2023. This ‘phygital’ approach — combining the best of physical and digital shopping — will define the future of Ramadan commerce in the Kingdom,” Tharmaratnam said.

Khan told Arab News that shopping app installations in Saudi Arabia surged by 67 percent during Ramadan in 2024, in what is “clear indicator” of how mobile-first commerce is shaping the future.

He added: “Consumer spending follows this trend. In 2024, 64 percent of foreign nationals in Saudi Arabia reported higher expenditures during Ramadan, reinforcing the economic impact of the season. And across the Middle East and North Africa, e-commerce transactions shot up by 23 percent, with Gross Merchandise Value climbing 13 percent. This is the power of Ramadan in the digital age — blending tradition with technology to fuel unprecedented growth.”

Ramadan e-commerce projections and alignment with Vision 2030

From Oliver Wyman’s perspective, Akl explained that Ramadan e-commerce in Saudi Arabia this year will be driven by sophisticated AI personalization, ensuring shoppers receive highly relevant offers and recommendations.

“Expect a significant leap in logistics efficiency, with same-day or even instant delivery becoming more prevalent. Live shopping and social commerce will be integral, creating interactive and engaging experiences,” he said. “Furthermore, embedded finance solutions will streamline transactions, fostering frictionless purchasing.”

Akl went on to highlight that this evolution directly supports Saudi Vision 2030’s digital-transformation goals, building a robust, tech-enabled retail landscape that prioritizes convenience and expands consumer choice, directly contributing to the Kingdom’s economic diversification.

ADL’s Tharmaratnam noted that in 2025 Saudi Arabia’s e-commerce sector will be worth $20 billion, and the way consumers interact with digital platforms continues to evolve at an exponential pace.

“Ramadan commerce will shift from being reactive to predictive and personalized, driven by AI-powered shopping assistants, voice commerce, and health-integrated marketplaces. Consumers won’t just be browsing for products — they’ll be receiving real-time, AI-curated recommendations based on their dietary preferences, health conditions, and fasting habits,” he said.

Vision 2030 is pushing for a cashless economy, targeting 70 percent digital payments by 2025, as well as the expansion of smart logistics networks and the integration of digital health tools into everyday life. This means Ramadan e-commerce will no longer be just about selling — it will be about enabling better, healthier choices.

The partner explained that virtual dietitians, AI-powered hydration monitoring, and smart pharmacy solutions will be embedded directly into e-commerce experiences.

“A preview of this is already happening with SehhaTech, an AI-driven health-commerce platform in Saudi Arabia. SehhaTech integrates digital pharmacy services, health coaching, and e-commerce, allowing users to buy fasting-friendly supplements, receive medication adherence reminders, and even book telehealth consultations,” Tharmaratnam said.

“During Ramadan, these services saw a 150-percent increase in engagement, proving that consumers aren’t just looking for products — they’re looking for intelligent, personalized health solutions integrated with their shopping experiences,” he added.

Khan believes that as Saudi Arabia pushes toward Vision 2030 and a fully digital economy, the Ramadan rush will only become more sophisticated.

“AI-driven personalization, seamless fintech solutions, and hyper-efficient logistics will redefine the shopping experience. Businesses that understand this intersection of culture and technology will be the ones that thrive,” he said.