A US victory over the Houthis will not be enough

For the past three weeks, US forces have been heavily bombing Houthi missile systems, drones, air defenses, weapons depots, command centers, training sites and the homes of militia leaders across several provinces, including Sanaa.

If the operations continue with this level of focus and eliminate the remaining Houthi military capabilities, will that end their existence? And what would happen next?

In Syria, after Bashar Assad’s forces were weakened, Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham quickly took advantage of the domestic and regional situation, advanced nearly 400 km from Idlib and Aleppo to Damascus and toppled the regime.

In Lebanon, Israel destroyed Hezbollah’s capabilities and eliminated its leaders. The Lebanese army filled the vacuum, taking control of highways, the airport and all vital infrastructure. A president was elected and a government was formed.

In Yemen, the Houthis’ capabilities are being destroyed and they may be collapsing, but no alternative has yet emerged. The military campaign appears effective and the Houthis will likely seek a deal with Washington to save what remains of their presence. However, air and naval strikes alone will not be enough to eliminate them. Everyone is waiting for an armed Yemeni force to seize the capital, Sanaa. Without that, once the fighting stops, the Iranian-backed militia could regroup in the capital and retain control over northern Yemen.

Groups like the Houthis, Hezbollah and the Taliban — and other regional religious militias — do not simply vanish after military defeat. They can return, recruit youths, raise funds, forge alliances and exploit regional and international contradictions.

The Houthis’ capabilities are being destroyed and they may be collapsing, but no alternative has yet emerged

Abdulrahman Al-Rashed

The significance of US military action lies in it coming after an international consensus to criminalize the Houthis’ actions. But the Americans seek only two goals from this war: destroying the Houthis’ military capabilities that threaten global navigation and forcing the militia to pledge to stop attacking passing ships. The Houthis will cease to be a global problem — but remain a problem for the Yemeni people and the region.

With the Houthis militarily besieged, and to ensure the opportunity is not wasted, a political solution must follow to end the broader Yemen conflict — not just the maritime crisis. Any political resolution will be new and will not include the Houthis’ past demands prior to the destruction of their capabilities. They once aimed to control the government and its sovereign ministries, including security and the military. Those old terms no longer fit today’s urgent reality.

Washington has been continuing its military campaign since the middle of last month, waiting for the Houthis to raise the white flag and commit to not threatening US and other ships passing through the Bab Al-Mandab Strait. I believe we are not far from that scenario. The Houthis will likely claim they halted attacks as part of resolving the Gaza crisis, while in reality it will be due to the destruction of their capabilities in Yemen.

If the Houthis continue to rule Sanaa, it will be a victory for them — since Assad’s regime has fallen, Hezbollah is near collapse and Hamas is negotiating the end of its rule in Gaza.

A political solution must follow to end the broader Yemen conflict — not just the maritime crisis

Abdulrahman Al-Rashed

The military campaign can help change the situation — either completely by eliminating the Houthis or by pushing them to relinquish most of their power. But this will not happen without a ground force. Is there an armed Yemeni force, acceptable both domestically and internationally, that can move toward the center to capitalize on the Houthis’ weakness and preempt the potential vacuum and its associated risks?

The alternative to the Houthis in this case is not a military coup or replacing one militia with another, but rather a force that defeats the Houthis and supports a political solution based on prior negotiations. Yemenis had made considerable progress toward consensus until the Houthis seized power and disrupted the political process in late 2014. Before that, Yemenis had engaged in significant dialogue and agreed on a roadmap with a constitution and institutions, as well as a transitional phase.

Even after the Houthis’ takeover, legitimacy was preserved as an entity — depriving the militia of international recognition. To this day, it safeguards Yemen’s legal international standing, with its own government, ministries, embassies, national currency and central bank. It can continue to serve as an umbrella under which war and chaos end and issues are resolved.

Today’s US military assault on the Houthi militia represents a rare opportunity for change in Yemen — one that may not come again for many years.

• Abdulrahman Al-Rashed is a Saudi journalist and intellectual. He is the former general manager of Al-Arabiya news channel and former editor-in-chief of Asharq Al-Awsat, where this article was originally published. X: @aalrashed