Why Europe should appreciate Trump

In the aftermath of the Second World War, Charles de Gaulle envisioned a Europe that was capable of defending itself. Eighty years later, that vision remains unfulfilled. The ambition to reduce reliance on external powers continues to dominate European strategic discussions. In 2019, when I visited Brussels and spoke at the European Parliament about global security, one of the things that most stood out to me was the prominence of the concept of strategic sovereignty in dialogue about the EU. In concrete terms, this was largely the popular belief that the bloc would be better off reducing its reliance on other countries — particularly, as a key EU think tank suggested, its dependence on the US, Russia and China.
The ambition to diversify away from Russian energy and Chinese manufacturing was unsurprising and made complete sense. But the mention of the US — and at the top of the list — was an unexpected curveball. Instead of a certain satisfaction with being in the American sphere of influence, this seemed to indicate a desire for a more powerful and independent collective entity.
This push for strategic sovereignty is not ideological rhetoric. It is based on a growing discomfort with Europe’s position in the geopolitical landscape. During Trump’s first term, the EU had to repeatedly face its new reality. After decades of falling under the American umbrella of protection via NATO, European leaders were left clumsily looking for solutions after America’s 2018 withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal. The world watched as they ultimately failed to bypass American sanctions — a clear reminder that, when Washington makes a decision, Brussels often has little choice but to fall in line, regardless of its own interests.
Brexit had the potential to push the EU toward true autonomy, given London’s tendency to mirror Washington. Instead, European leaders remained divided and without a clear strategy to break free from reliance on the US. The goal of reducing dependence is not about opposition but about the ability to act autonomously, independently of the political mood in the White House or elsewhere.
The pandemic accelerated the need for greater EU resilience by exposing its supply chain vulnerabilities and overreliance on China. The Russian invasion of Ukraine completely shifted Europe’s stance, pulling it back under the American security umbrella as the leader of NATO. Before 2022, European leaders actively sought to avoid provoking Russia and hesitated to add Ukraine to NATO or the EU. However, with the invasion came a strong and almost frantic fear of Russia and the existential threat it might pose to Europe. The EU rapidly aligned with US policies on sanctions, military aid and NATO coordination, preferring the guarantee of short-term security to working on long-term strategic independence.
Three years into the war, Brussels has quietly revived the idea of independence. Rebranded under the new name of the “strategic compass,” it aims to improve defense by collective coordination. But this strategic compass and focus on sovereignty is insufficient on its own. The EU must not just seek autonomy but learn to believe in its own ability to act — a shift from strategic sovereignty to strategic confidence.
As European leaders watched the tense White House exchange between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, it would be easy to conclude that they are now on their own. Yet this reaction may not capture the full truth. The US will remain committed to Europe, but only if Europe is committed to itself — meaning that it must take its own defense seriously, pull its weight and not take American security guarantees for granted.
Europe should also recognize that the trajectory of the Ukraine conflict was not inevitable. Under the presidencies of Barack Obama and Joe Biden, Ukraine was pushed to align ever more closely with the West, despite contestation by EU leaders wary of upsetting Moscow. Trump now seeks to rectify that trajectory, to end the war and rebuild better global security. If successful, this shift could ultimately benefit Europe, providing a more stable and predictable geopolitical order.
With a second Trump term underway, the majority of EU member states appear nervous, uncertain and undecided about how to move forward. One thing is clear: many in Europe still do not see Trump as their American friend. Yet, in reality, the EU and a Trump-led US agree on more than they disagree.
For instance, raising defense spending is both a European and an American interest, not provoking Russia is also European policy and a Trump policy, as is less Russian energy dependency, and the list goes on. Perhaps the only difference is that most EU leaders lean left while the US is currently on the right. That means there are differences in their approaches to climate change, immigration and social policy, but not on core strategic interests.
If the EU does not seize the opportunity of a second Trump presidency to achieve strategic sovereignty, it might never obtain it. If the EU is serious about its sovereignty, it must act — this means building a unified EU military and creating a new security architecture that neither replaces nor is fully reliant on NATO. The idea that Europe cannot defend itself against Russia is absurd. The EU does not lack unity, money or military strength — it simply lacks confidence. Strategic confidence is what differentiates a continent that can chart its own course from one that is forced to follow external powers.

The EU must not just seek autonomy but learn to believe in its own ability to act — a shift to strategic confidence.

Salman Al-Ansari

With that confidence, a lot is possible. European leaders now have the opportunity to build out their own capabilities, together. Germany’s new government is focused on positive economic outcomes. That could help the economy get back on track after a prolonged slowdown of its output, most notably in the energy sector, where high prices have hurt German industries. France, on the other hand, is the only EU power with access to atomic weapons, which, while they will most likely never actually need to be deployed, still gives it a strategic position at the head of Europe’s defense. With Berlin driving Europe’s economic future and Paris leading its politics, this could be a turning point for European economic and political independence.
Perhaps the EU can learn from two countries in particular — Saudi Arabia and India — on how to balance strategic relationships with the world’s major powers. Both nations have masterfully applied the concept of strategic sovereignty, not just in theory but in practice, becoming influential global players without compromising their autonomy.
Europe is key to global security and prosperity, but it needs to come together around a clear vision of its place and future in the world. Now, with strong European leaders and as the US is undergoing a foreign policy transformation, the EU has the space to do that.

• Salman Al-Ansari is a geopolitical analyst who is a frequent guest on the BBC, CNN and France 24. In 2021, he was ranked as the most influential political pundit in the Middle East and North Africa by Arab News. X: @Salansar1