Turkiye’s influence in NATO poised to increase

For the first time in its history, Turkiye will on July 1 assume command of the NATO Allied Reaction Force Amphibious Task Force Command and the Landing Force Command, marking a significant milestone for the country within the alliance. Its year-long command will oversee several critical operations aimed at bolstering NATO’s collective defense capabilities. The Turkish Defense Ministry emphasized that this leadership position is a testament to the country’s increasing role in NATO operations and its contribution to the alliance’s defense structure.

From the beginning, Turkiye’s relationship with NATO was transactional. Ankara initially sought membership in 1948 but was only offered “associate status” in 1950. It did not secure strong support for its NATO membership until it sent thousands of soldiers to fight alongside the US during the Korean War. In May 1951, Washington proposed Turkiye’s membership and, soon after, NATO backed the move and Turkiye was admitted to the alliance in 1952.

Being part of NATO is seen as a rational foreign policy move in Turkiye. During the Cold War, NATO was key to Turkiye’s defense against the Soviet threat. Being a NATO member gave Turkiye a national security identity and a voice in European defense matters, while also creating opportunities for its economic growth as a Western ally. In return, Turkiye took on the responsibility of protecting the alliance’s southern flank, serving as a strategic buffer against Soviet expansion in the Mediterranean and the Middle East. Turkiye’s cooperation was essential in NATO’s strategy to counter Soviet influence.

The symbolic fall of the Iron Curtain and the collapse of the Soviet Union raised concerns that NATO might become irrelevant and that Turkiye’s importance to its Western allies would decrease. However, that did not happen. Today, Russia remains a significant player and Turkiye’s growing ties with Moscow enhance Ankara’s strategic value to its Western allies — despite their unease over Turkish-Russian relations.

Turkiye’s policies do not always align with those of its NATO and EU partners, particularly regarding the Middle East. 

Dr. Sinem Cengiz

Despite being one of the longest-lasting military alliances in history, NATO is going through tough times in adapting to changes in global security. There are challenges to its unity, such as the weakening military strength of many members and the shift in the US’ focus from Europe to the Pacific. There are also differences among members in how they perceive threats, their varying interests and how to cope with the issues.

Turkiye, which has the second-largest military in the alliance after the US, also hosts NATO facilities. These facilities are significant in terms of giving NATO a timely response capability in the region. Turkiye is also one of the top-five contributors to NATO missions, participating in operations such as those in Afghanistan and Kosovo. It continues to play an important role in securing NATO’s southern flank, especially in the Mediterranean, Black Sea and broader Middle East.

However, Turkiye’s policies do not always align with those of its NATO and EU partners, particularly regarding the Middle East. While NATO and the EU prioritize expanding their influence, advancing economic interests and securing Israel, Turkiye places greater emphasis on regional peace and stability. For Ankara, fostering a stable region and having good ties with its neighbors is a higher priority than fully adhering to its Western allies’ policies. As a result, Turkiye pursues an autonomous foreign and security policy in its neighborhood, while carefully balancing its relations with both Russia and Iran, avoiding the confrontational stance that its NATO and EU partners often adopt.

Turkiye has learned lessons from being dependent on the US and NATO and it realized the limits of this dependence during its fight against terrorism in Syria, when NATO allies imposed arms embargoes on it, irking Ankara.

Moreover, within NATO, Turkiye was not always on equal terms with its Western allies. Ankara often felt that its national interests and security concerns were secondary to those of the US and other allies. One example was when Washington continued to cooperate with the Syrian Kurds at the expense of Turkiye’s security concerns. A closer look at European policies against Turkiye in the pre-Ukraine war period would also be relevant.

As the US appears to be distancing itself from NATO, Turkiye wants to fill this void to bolster its influence. 

Dr. Sinem Cengiz

Given the immense challenges facing NATO, the roadmap is clear: NATO’s European allies must collaborate with Turkiye to ensure the future of European security, while acknowledging Turkiye’s desire for autonomy in its foreign and security policy.

In the region, Turkiye is using its influence in NATO to block any new cooperation with Israel. Ankara reportedly stated that it will continue this policy until a permanent ceasefire is reached in Gaza. It has previously blocked Israel from obtaining observer status at NATO — a stance it lifted during a reconciliation process between the two countries in 2023.

As the US appears to be distancing itself from NATO, Turkiye wants to fill this void to bolster its influence. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan stated that Ankara is willing to engage in a new security accord in Europe and proposed protecting Ukraine in the event of a future ceasefire or peace agreement. In the post-Ukraine war period, NATO should focus on establishing a partnership with Ankara in the Black Sea, where Russia is the dominant actor.

Nevertheless, NATO today remains as important to Turkiye as it was in the past, while Ankara remains a crucial member of the alliance whose role no other country could replicate because of its unique geopolitical position. Turkiye is both a European and a Middle Eastern country in several aspects. This dual role presents both opportunities and challenges, particularly in balancing tensions between the West and Russia. However, Turkiye’s commitment to NATO is strong and, as such, it will host the 2026 NATO Summit.

• Dr. Sinem Cengiz is a Turkish political analyst who specializes in Turkiye’s relations with the Middle East. X: @SinemCngz