LONDON: Qualification for the 2026 World Cup enters a crucial phase in the next few days as Saudi Arabia host China at home on Thursday in Riyadh and then head to Japan for Tuesday’s clash.
After six games of 10 in the third round of qualification, Japan are nine points clear, leaving the other five countries chasing the other automatic spot.
The battle is fierce, with just one point separating Australia in second and China in sixth, with Indonesia, Saudi Arabia and Bahrain in between.
There is much to talk about, but here are five things to look out for in the coming week.
China match a must-win for Saudi
There’s no getting around the need for victory. Saudi Arabia have won just one of six games so far in Group C and hopes of automatic qualification are very much in the balance. The good news for coach Herve Renard is that rivals for second spot have also been stumbling. There is still time for a team to make a break for North America and leave the others behind.
The other good news for Renard is that China are the only team that the Green Falcons have beaten so far, thanks to a last-minute header from Hassan Kadesh. Saudi Arabia are clear favorites to win, but the pressure is on.
China will be delighted with a point but know that if they can keep things tight and frustrate the home team — and given that Saudi Arabia have not scored in the last four qualifiers since that Kadesh goal then this is a real possibility — then the atmosphere in Riyadh could become anxious quite quickly, providing the visitors with an opportunity to go home with a win. Somehow, the home team need to start taking chances.
Renard has been bold and picked players in form
The Frenchman returned in October to take over after a poor start during Roberto Mancini’s stint as coach of Saudi Arabia. His first game back was a fighting 0-0 draw in Australia that was followed by a 2-0 defeat in Indonesia that has made things difficult.
Renard has made a number of changes to the squad since that traumatic night in Jakarta and added new faces — players like Jehad Thakri, who has been impressive in defense with Al-Qadsiah and Muhannad Al-Saad who has been in action for Dunkerque in the French second tier. Intriguingly, there may be a debut for 32-year-old striker Abdullah Al-Salem. The powerful forward has been in form for Al-Khaleej, reaching double figures for the club in the lower reaches of mid-table.
Picking players who are playing well for clubs is always a good idea but not always that common in international football. If one of the new players can step up and repay Renard’s faith, then it may just make the difference.
A trip to Japan is as tough as it gets but …
In October, Japan came to Jeddah to win 2-0 in a clinical display. It was already clear then that the Samurai Blue were on their way to the World Cup as Group C winners. It is highly likely that the team will beat Bahrain at home, they won 5-0 in the away fixture, to become the first team to qualify for the 2026 World Cup.
That can be good news for Saudi Arabia. Going east to face a Japan desperate for points would be the toughest task possible in Asian football, but if the hosts have already qualified and in something of a party mood, then there is hope.
Saudi Arabia finished above Japan in qualification for the 2022 World Cup and while that is not going to happen this time, there is always a chance in a one-off match.
The stars need to step up on long trip
It remains to be seen if in-form midfielder Mohamed Kanno is fit to face China after picking up an injury, although the Al-Hilal star will be hoping to make the long trip east and take the pitch at Saitama Stadium. His energy, drive and experience will be needed.
There may be some necessary new blood in the squad but Saudi Arabia will also look to Salem Al-Dawsari, the talisman, to make something happen with a moment of magic. The same with Saud Abdulhamid. Japan are a team full of European-based stars but the right-back has some form with Roma.
It is not just about dealing with the 90 minutes on the pitch, but the whole trip. It is unfortunate that while Japan have two games in the same stadium and can rest and relax, Saudi Arabia face China in Riyadh and then face a long journey across six time zones. Such is life in Asian football, but the stars have been here before and need to show how it is done.
Whatever happens, it’s not over
Even if there are a pair of wins in the coming days, there is still work to do, and the same would be true with two defeats. There are two more qualifiers in June in Bahrain and then a final clash against Australia. There are two automatic spots, one almost certainly reserved for Japan and one other, but there is another route. The six teams that finish third and fourth in the three groups will advance to another stage to compete for two more World Cup spots.
Of the five teams in the hunt for second, Australia and Saudi Arabia would consider finishing third as a disappointment, but Bahrain, China and Indonesia would almost certainly feel differently. That adds an extra dimension to the coming games. Whatever happens, Saudi Arabia need to ensure that they do not slip out of the top four while they battle for a place in the top two.
