UK’s strategic balancing act as it seeks new partners

In response to the Arab reconstruction plan for Gaza that was agreed at the extraordinary summit in Cairo this month, the UK joined its European allies in backing the initiative, which aims to rebuild the Strip in phases without displacing its Palestinian population.

In a joint statement, the foreign ministers of France, Germany, Italy and the UK welcomed the plan, emphasizing the need for Gaza to be governed temporarily by a committee of independent experts, with international peacekeepers ensuring security. Their message was clear: Hamas “must neither govern Gaza nor be a threat to Israel anymore” and the Palestinian Authority should take on a central role in governance, backed by a reform agenda.

The UK’s support for this initiative aligns with its long-standing humanitarian commitments. London has provided more than £819 million ($1 billion) in bilateral aid to the West Bank and Gaza since 2009 and its contributions to UNRWA bring the total to £1.7 billion.

By backing the Arab approach to the reconstruction of Gaza, the UK risks straining its relationship with a key ally

Zaid M. Belbagi

As London deepens its commitment to the Arab reconstruction plan, another urgent call is echoing from within: the need for the country to take a decisive lead on Palestinian rights. The Britain Palestine Project — a UK-based charity — has urged the government to step up, advocating for a more prominent role in addressing the conflict. With recent public opinion polls revealing widespread support for a foreign policy driven by humanitarian principles and international law, the group is pushing for the government to reflect these values in its approach to Palestine.

However, the political implications of this position are far-reaching. Washington, under President Donald Trump, has firmly opposed the Arab reconstruction plan, favoring an alternative vision that seeks to reshape Gaza’s political and demographic landscape. By backing the Arab approach, the UK risks straining its relationship with a key ally.

One of the UK’s most critical areas of cooperation with Washington lies in intelligence sharing, particularly through the Five Eyes alliance. Any deterioration in relations could jeopardize the collaboration between the two countries’ intelligence agencies, as well as the UK’s reliance on US technology for its nuclear deterrent, which depends on Trident missiles supplied by Washington.

Furthermore, the UK is also wary of Trump’s economic policies, given his recent, controversial tendency to impose tariffs on allies. Any new trade or policy measures could hit British exports at a time when London is trying to reinforce its post-Brexit trading position.

Tensions between the UK and Israel also flared last week after a diplomatic incident. Israeli Deputy Foreign Minister Sharren Haskel posted a secretly recorded video on Instagram, showing her confronting Emily Thornberry, the chair of the UK Foreign Affairs Committee, over the two-state solution. Thornberry condemned the unauthorized release of the footage and called on the British government to intervene, stating the video was shared without her consent. The incident has cast a shadow over UK-Israel relations, raising concerns over diplomatic trust and protocol.

Following this diplomatic controversy and in light of the UK’s support of the Arab reconstruction plan, London is looking to expand its strategic alliances with new partners. One such important avenue is the Gulf Cooperation Council. The ongoing negotiations for a free trade agreement with the Gulf states are seen as a major economic opportunity, with the potential to boost bilateral trade by 16 percent.

According to the UK government, a deal with the GCC would lead to substantial economic benefits for the UK, both in the short and long term. In fact, an ambitious trade deal could contribute an additional £1.6 billion to £3.1 billion to the UK’s gross domestic product by 2035. Moreover, it could enhance trade between the UK and GCC countries by £8.6 billion to £15.8 billion by the same year.

London is looking to strengthen its credibility in the Middle East and reinforce its strategic alignment with Gulf partners

Zaid M. Belbagi

In December, the Department for Business and Trade confirmed the UK’s commitment to its free trade agreement negotiations program, with a target to deliver results by July. Negotiations with the GCC resumed in September and, since then, both virtual and in-person discussions have taken place, demonstrating the shared commitment to establishing a strong trade partnership.

In line with this progress, the visits of UK Business and Trade Minister Jonathan Reynolds to Saudi Arabia and Qatar following the GCC trade ministers meeting addressed crucial issues regarding investment, digital trade and goods market access, indicating the mutual ambition to push the partnership forward.

As negotiations continue to gain momentum, significant progress has been made, paving the way for a stronger, more robust relationship between the UK and the GCC. Beyond trade, the ties between the two are also deeply rooted in security and defense, with the UK maintaining long-standing partnerships in the region. These include supplying arms and sustaining military bases.

By endorsing the Arab reconstruction plan, London is looking to strengthen its credibility in the Middle East and reinforce its strategic alignment with key Gulf partners. However, this move must be carefully managed to avoid alienating the US, particularly under a Trump administration that has shown little patience for those diverging from its preferred policies.

Looking ahead, the UK’s approach will require a delicate balancing act. While it cannot afford to break ties with Washington, it also sees value in diversifying its global partnerships. By navigating these challenges strategically, London hopes to secure its economic and security interests in a world that is becoming increasingly multipolar.

• Zaid M. Belbagi is a political commentator and an adviser to private clients between London and the Gulf Cooperation Council. X: @Moulay_Zaid