Cairo plan a good start, but not a final destination

International analysts would be well advised to keep a close eye on what happens in Saudi Arabia over the next few weeks, as it seems some of today’s most pressing global problems might be resolved in the Kingdom.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is due to arrive in the Kingdom on Monday for meetings with the Saudi leadership, hopefully to officially kick-start a series of talks that might put an end to the devastating Russian-Ukrainian war.
This is no coincidence but rather the direct result of years of trust-building and back-channeling, at which Saudi Arabia has excelled. While Riyadh condemned the Russian aggression against Ukraine at the UN, it maintained, and despite criticisms, close and solid diplomatic relations with Moscow, not just to support the OPEC+ agreement, which guarantees oil market stability at a time of grave inflation, but because it knew that at some point the international community was going to need an adult in the room.
Shortly afterward, the Saudi approach resulted in two prisoner swaps, with both the Russians and Ukrainians thanking Riyadh for its successful efforts.

To succeed, the Cairo plan will need further refining, ironing out wrinkles and, most of all, lots of glitter sprinkled over it.

Faisal J. Abbas

Now, building on the trust and strong relationship it built with President Donald Trump during his first term, Saudi Arabia is yet again the trusted and impartial facilitator between Russia, Ukraine, and the US.
When it comes to an issue closer to home — Gaza — and given the rejection (albeit expected) by both Israel and the US of the Arab League proposal, the world might have to again turn to the Kingdom for a diplomatic solution.
Just to be clear, the Arab League plan has been endorsed by all the attending leaders, or their representatives, in Cairo. It has also garnered the support of the UN secretary-general and a number of European countries.
However, if the atrocities in the war on Gaza have taught us anything, it is that we should not forget to secure the buy-in of the elephant outside the room: the US. Trump has clearly signaled that he sees no place for Hamas, and says he still believes the Palestinians need to be moved out during reconstruction.
Meanwhile, Israel, being the unreasonable player that it is, has predictably rejected any role for Hamas, as well as any involvement by the Palestinian Authority or the United Nations Relief and Works Agency.
Now, with those conditions, it is futile trying to convince Israel. Its Prime Minister, or should I say, Occupier-in-Chief Benjamin Netanyahu and his coalition of lunatics clearly want the status quo to continue till every last Gazan is either displaced or killed by weapons, malnutrition or illness. At the same time, Israel will continue its intimidation in the West Bank, which could result in the region reaching a boiling point, even during the holy month of Ramadan.

People can ridicule Trump as much as they like, but the bottom line is that he is a businessman and, for him, it is all about the product, the pitch, and the profit.

Faisal J. Abbas

Trump, however, is a different political animal and — as unpopular as this sounds — a lot more straightforward to deal with. For instance, the US administration has already said it was open to ideas after the controversial Middle East Riviera plan was floated. The Americans also clarified that they are not putting boots on the ground, and have also made public that they are having direct talks with Hamas and are willing to talk to the Iranians.
With a bit of logic, Washington can be convinced that Gazans who want to stay in their land while it is being rebuilt can do so, and if provided with a face-saving exit, Hamas could hopefully opt to do what is best for Palestinians, not for themselves (this will also require serious talks with Hamas, perhaps by Qatar and Egypt). Meanwhile, as part of the rehabilitation of the Palestinian Police that Jordan and Egypt has proposed to do, perhaps the Arab League could also help the Palestinian Authority rebuild its capabilities given that President Mahmoud Abbas has already signaled that an election can happen within a year.
We should also remember a few things. First, whether the Arab street likes him or not, Trump effectively has absolute power for at least the next two years, until the midterm elections. Second, that he can only serve four years in office, as US presidents cannot run for a third term. Third, Trump has kept the door open for further discussions to bring peace and prosperity to the region. This could include possible talks about a two-state solution, a longstanding condition placed by Saudi Arabia for normalization with Israel.
All of this means two things: Netanyahu can no longer claim that he calls the shots in Washington or bypass the president and address Congress directly. It also means that Trump is in a race against time to build a lasting legacy, and Saudi Arabia and the rest of the Arab world are in a good place to help when it comes to Gaza compared with Netanyahu, who most likely will let him down — no matter what Washington offers him.
In that sense, I believe Egypt and the Arab League deserve a round of applause, and that the Cairo proposal should be seen as a good starting point rather than a final destination. To succeed, it will need further refining, ironing out wrinkles and, most of all, lots of glitter sprinkled over it.
People can ridicule Trump as much as they like, but the bottom line is that he is a businessman and, for him, it is all about the product, the pitch, and the profit.
With help provided by Riyadh when it comes to Russia and Ukraine, the continuing stabilization of oil markets, billions of dollars in trade deals and an ability to help Trump walk out of the White House as the man who achieved what no other president has done — a lasting peace in the Middle East — we do have a lot to offer in terms of the profit.
However, we need to act quickly in terms of the pitch and realize it will not be achieved by wishful thinking, but with political pragmatism, determined diplomacy and skillful salesmanship.
As for the product, if Trump wants to call it the Riviera of the Middle East, then so be it. I believe it is wrong to argue about packaging when it is the substance that matters. If this $53 billion Arab Riviera is being built by Palestinians for Palestinians and as part of an agreed Palestinian state, then the only thing left to do is to ensure Israel does not destroy it again in a few years.

* Faisal J. Abbas is the editor-in-chief of Arab News. X: @FaisalJAbbas