Europe must wake up to hard power reality

A clip of Alex Younger, the former head of the UK’s MI6 intelligence service, speaking about the current situation in Ukraine during an appearance on the BBC’s “Newsnight” program has been widely distributed across social media this week. In the clip, Younger starts by stating that we are no longer living in a world determined by “rules and multilateralism” but by “strongmen and deals.” Ask anyone in the Middle East and they will tell you the hard truth: we never left the world of strongmen and deals. It is Europe and the West, under full US protection, that have lived under the illusion or delusion that it is multilateralism and international rules that are key to global geopolitics.

For the rest of the world, we are still in the Yalta-type situation Younger referenced. The Yalta Conference, held in the Crimea in February 1945 and attended by Winston Churchill, Franklin Roosevelt and Joseph Stalin, outlined postwar Europe’s division, Germany’s occupation, the formation of the UN and Soviet influence over Eastern Europe. The true division happened during the Potsdam Conference, held in July 1945, which finalized Germany’s division and demanded Japan’s unconditional surrender. Afterward, the two superpowers moved into the Cold War era.

The new reality Younger mentioned is anything but new. As he stated, “it is not soft power or values” that determines countries’ sphere of influence, “it is hard power.” It has always been hard power and nothing else that has determined everything. You can sprinkle some soft power and values on top of the cake to make it look nice and to cover the taste of eggs in the recipe, but the recipe is, always has been and always will be hard power. I will not go deeper into the values he mentions, as Europe and the West have lost their true values to the progressive movement.

On the topic of soft and hard power, I remember a conversation I had with a retired French official who already understood these realities more than a decade ago. He stated the reality of the softening of the Western world on the international scene. He bluntly stated that, without hard power, “we are only cheese and wine salespeople.” And so, the calculations when it comes to Ukraine and for Europe to achieve its own “sphere of influence,” as mentioned by Younger, are quite simple. The Europeans need to cut through the fog and ask themselves: Are we willing to enter an all-out war? This is the costly “entry ticket” Younger alluded to if Europe is to enter the conversation and gain a sphere of influence.

He is right that Moscow’s military campaign in Ukraine has been clumsy and weak. Many military analysts I talked to in 2008 said the same of Russia’s campaign in Georgia, which it nevertheless won. This was also evident in the war between Armenia and Azerbaijan, where the support of Turkiye — a NATO ally — proved much more powerful than Moscow’s. But Russia is now in an economy of war and is adapting fast. Europe is an economy of Ozempic and Louis Vuitton bags.

Hence, the delusion that you can apply soft power and get what you want in an arena of war must be destroyed. Might I remind everyone that it was the victors that sat together in Yalta, not the defeated. Millions died. And so, what do we see on the ground in Ukraine? Let us firstly remember that the Russian military move took place in 2022, when Joe Biden was US president, and the buildup to it has often been disregarded. Today, Ukraine is doing the best it can with US military support. But it will not be able to defeat Russia or even repel it. This is now clear. It has been for the past three years. So, what should be the next step? Negotiate an exit from the war or fight harder?

The delusion that you can apply soft power and get what you want in an arena of war must be destroyed.

Khaled Abou Zahr

In that context, if someone can tell me how they can turn the negotiations to Ukraine’s advantage with soft power, as per the wishful thinking of the BBC host, I am all ears. It is the situation on the ground that will dictate the outcome, just as it did in Afghanistan. There is no sugarcoating a loss. So, what is Europe going to do about it? It can pin the blame on Donald Trump as much as it wants, but the real question is whether Europe is willing to go to war to stand up to Vladimir Putin and save Ukraine? So, who will go to war? And for what outcome?

Europe does indeed need to “wake up” and swiftly prepare for this “new” reality, which has actually governed the world since the beginning of history. It might need to start by having a unified position on Russia and China. This is far from being the case today. As Younger stated, the “free ride” on the US’ back needs to end. Continuously putting the blame on Washington must stop too. The real enigma is can Europe do this without going to war in Ukraine?

It is precisely the mistake Europe has made — that of thinking soft power has any value without hard power — that led us to this situation. At the very least, the next step should be to invest more in defense. Europe has the capability to build the military forces it needs to be a superior force. It lacks the will to do so. But more than spending billions, as war has already started, the real deterrence would be to convince its adversaries that it has the will to fight. Both Russia and Ukraine have shown this. So has the US.

There needs to be strong action to make this buildup happen and to project the deterrence Europe needs and which can — with US support — change the reality. But let us be realistic: the US still has this deterrence, with Younger stating “you underestimate America at your peril.” Europe needs to bring its real values back to the fore and show its resolve; then its allies and enemies will listen. Not before.

• Khaled Abou Zahr is the founder of SpaceQuest Ventures, a space-focused investment platform. He is CEO of EurabiaMedia and editor of Al-Watan Al-Arabi.