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BERLIN: Germans were voting in a national election on Sunday that is expected to see Friedrich Merz’s conservatives regain power and the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) score its best ever result as Europe’s ailing economic powerhouse lurches rightwards.

Merz’s CDU/CSU bloc has consistently led polls but is unlikely to win a majority given Germany’s fragmented political landscape, forcing it to sound out coalition partners.

Those negotiations are expected to be tricky after a campaign which exposed sharp divisions over migration and how to deal with the AfD in a country where far-right politics carries a particularly strong stigma due to its Nazi past.

That could leave unpopular Chancellor Olaf Scholz in a caretaker role for months, delaying urgently needed policies to revive Europe’s largest economy after two consecutive years of contraction and as companies struggle against global rivals.

It would also create a leadership vacuum in the heart of Europe even as it deals with a host of challenges, including US President Donald Trump’s threats of a trade war and attempts to fast-track a ceasefire deal for Ukraine without European involvement.

Germany, which has an export-oriented economy and long relied on the US for its security, is particularly vulnerable.

Germans are more pessimistic about their living standards now than at any time since the financial crisis in 2008. The percentage who say their situation is improving dropped sharply from 42 percent in 2023 to 27 percent in 2024, according to pollster Gallup.

Attitudes toward migration have also hardened, a profound shift in German public sentiment since its “Refugees Welcome” culture during Europe’s migrant crisis in 2015.

Musk weighs in

Sunday’s election follows the collapse last November of Scholz’s coalition of his center-left Social Democrats (SPD), the Greens and pro-market Free Democrats (FDP) in a row over budget spending.

The SPD is headed for its worst result since World War Two.

The election campaign has been dominated by fierce exchanges over the perception that irregular immigration is out of control, fueled by a series of attacks in which the suspected perpetrators were of migrant origin.

It has also been overshadowed by the unusually forceful show of solidarity by members of the Trump administration – including Vice President JD Vance and tech billionaire Elon Musk – for the anti-migrant AfD, and broadsides against European leaders.

The 12-year-old AfD is on track to come in second place for the first time in a national election.

“I’m completely disappointed in politics, so maybe an alternative would be better,” said retired Berlin bookkeeper Ludmila Ballhorn, 76, who plans to vote AfD, adding she was struggling to live on her pension of 800 euros. “Rents and all other costs have soared.”

The AfD, however, is unlikely to govern for now as all mainstream parties have ruled out working with it, though some analysts believe it could pave the way for an AfD win in 2029.

Still, its strength, along with a small but significant vote share for the far-left and the decline of Germany’s big-tent parties, is increasingly complicating the formation of coalitions and governance.

Coalition options

EU allies are cautiously hopeful the elections might deliver a more coherent government able to help drive forward policy at home and in the bloc.

Some also hope Merz will reform the “debt brake,” a constitutional mechanism to limit government borrowing that critics say has strangled new investment.

The most likely outcome of this election, say analysts, is a tie-up of Merz’s conservative bloc of Christian Democrats (CDU) and Christian Social Union (CSU) with the SPD, which is polling in third place in another uneasy “grand coalition.”

Polls, however, suggest another three-way coalition may be necessary if several small parties make the 5 percent threshold to enter parliament, complicating talks.

“A lot of my friends are likely going to vote for the conservatives because this government didn’t work so well and Merz’s international standing is quite good,” said Mike Zeller, 26, a civil servant.

“I just hope enough parties agree to a government so they can leave the AfD out.”

An Afghan women’s radio station will resume broadcasts after the Taliban suspended its operations, citing “unauthorized provision” of content to an overseas TV channel and improperly using its license.
Radio Begum launched on International Women’s Day in March 2021, five months before the Taliban seized power amid the chaotic withdrawal of US and NATO troops.
The station’s content is produced entirely by Afghan women. Its sister satellite channel, Begum TV, operates from France and broadcasts programs that cover the Afghan school curriculum from seventh to 12th grade. The Taliban have banned education for women and girls in the country beyond grade six.
In a statement issued Saturday night, the Taliban’s Information and Culture Ministry said Radio Begum had “repeatedly requested” to restart operations and that the suspension was lifted after the station made commitments to authorities.
The station pledged to conduct broadcasts “in accordance with the principles of journalism and the regulations of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, and to avoid any violations in the future,” it added.
The ministry did not elaborate what those principles and regulations were. Radio Begum was not immediately available for comment.
Since their takeover, the Taliban have excluded women from education, many kinds of work, and public spaces. Journalists, especially women, have lost their jobs as the Taliban tighten their grip on the media.
In the 2024 press freedom index from Reporters without Borders, Afghanistan ranks 178 out of 180 countries. The year before that it ranked 152.
The Information Ministry did not initially identify the TV channel it alleged Radio Begum had been working with. But the Saturday statement mentioned collaboration with “foreign sanctioned media outlets.”