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Whilst everyone’s talking about artificial intelligence replacing jobs, there’s a far more fascinating revolution brewing: the potential for dismantling the entire monetary system as we know it. Before you dismiss this as another crypto-bro fever dream, hear me out.
Imagine a world where sophisticated AI agents are constantly matching trades across vast networks. Not just neolithic barters of the “two sheep for a cow” variety, but enormously complex, multi-party deals happening in milliseconds. Rather like a global game of financial Tetris, but with commodities, services, and obligations all slotting together perfectly.
In this world, traditional currencies might become rather quaint, like bringing an abacus to a quantum computing conference.
It might resurrect some remarkably ancient ideas about value and trust. Remember the hawala networks? Those centuries-old trust-based money transfer systems beloved by both legitimate traders and shadowy operators? Well, they might just offer a preview of our future — albeit with AI playing the role of the digital hawaladar.
Consider the concrete examples: A Chinese company recently exported $2 million in automotive parts to Iran in exchange for pistachios. Malaysia and China executed a palm oil trade worth $150 million, exchanging it for construction services and natural resources. These aren’t improvisations — they’re systematic developments in alternative economic architecture.
The transformation runs deeper than mere sanctions evasion. We’re witnessing the convergence of three powerful forces: artificial intelligence, commodity-based trade, and alternative payment networks. Imagine AI agents constantly matching trades across vast networks — not simple “two sheep for a cow” barters, but enormously complex, multi-party deals happening in milliseconds. It’s like a global game of financial Tetris, with commodities, services, and obligations all slotting together perfectly.
This evolution naturally favours different players than the traditional financial system. Russia’s gold exports to China surged after Western sanctions in 2022. The UAE emerged as a key hub for international gold trade before Chinese markets took prominence. Russian companies have begun selling gold in Hong Kong and depositing proceeds in local banks to pay Chinese suppliers — a modern adaptation of ancient trading practices.
What’s particularly fascinating is how this might reshape global power. Traditional financial centers like London might find themselves playing second fiddle to places that control physical resources or sit at the crossroads of trade networks. Dubai, with its combination of commodity flows, trading networks, and embrace of future tech, could become more strategically important than Frankfurt.
The real winners? Rather than banks, we might see the rise of hybrid organizations that can juggle physical commodities, digital assets, and trust networks — think Glencore meets Google meets Goldman Sachs. Trading houses might evolve from shifting physical commodities to orchestrating complex value networks, with AI agents as their digital workforce.
This transformation raises fundamental questions about monetary policy and financial regulation. When Pakistan can trade directly with Russia for essential materials, when Iran can exchange drones for gold, and when China can process Russian payments through regional banks, traditional financial controls become increasingly less relevant. Countries rich in physical resources but traditionally peripheral to global finance — think Russia, Brazil, or Indonesia — might find themselves with unprecedented leverage in this new world.
Most provocatively, this might not lead to a single, efficient global market but rather to a messy, organic network of parallel systems, some official, some decidedly not. Rather, the internet evolved from a clean, academic network into the unruly and chaotic system we have today.
The movement toward parallel economic systems appears not just possible but increasingly inevitable. The real question isn’t whether this transformation is coming — it’s already here. The question is who will be clever enough to position themselves for it. After all, in a world where AI agents are constantly optimizing trades across multiple systems, the power might not lie in controlling any single currency or market but in managing the boundaries between them.
Now, there’s a thought to keep central bankers up at night.
• Adrian Monck writes a weekly newsletter, Seven Things. He is senior adviser to the Mohamed bin Zayed University of Artificial Intelligence and a former managing director of WEF.