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In two spheres of human activity in American life, “trash talk” is a prevalent, although not necessarily endearing, feature: sports and politics. It usually consists of a short and sharp insulting or boastful remark intended to demoralize or humiliate an opponent, with the intention of gaining the upper hand. The master of this in US politics, Donald Trump, is back in the White House and much of the world is now feeling obliged to prepare and respond to his second term.
It is not always possible to know how much of Trump’s rhetoric is strategic and how much is tactical. Is it going to be translated into an actionable policy or is it a move designed to unsettle or “encourage” others to adjust their behavior to what they believe Trump expects of them?
For example, there are not many out there who believe that Canada will become the 51st state of the US, but Ottawa cannot afford to ignore comments to this effect by the returning US president. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau did not decide to quit politics because of the new occupant of the White House, but if tariffs are imposed on Canadian goods, as Trump has repeatedly promised, it will make the country’s fiscal constraints very prohibitive in an election year and consequently mean that Trudeau would be less likely to win.
It is not necessarily that all the grievances Trump airs are baseless, but it is the language he employs that shocks the international system.
There is hardly anyone who would dispute that the Panama Canal, as a major international waterway connecting the Atlantic and Pacific oceans, is crucial for US interests. Hence, concerns that it should remain open and not subject to the whims of a main global rival, while ensuring that the tariffs for using it remain competitive, are not unreasonable. But threatening to take it back, as Trump did in his inauguration address, and calling the agreement that returned the sovereignty of the canal to Panama as a “foolish gift” suggests the intention to take foreign territory by an aggressive foreign policy, even force.
And then there is Greenland. Its strategic location has already enjoyed a visit by none other than Donald Trump Jr. — one assumes with the encouragement of his father, who would like to take over this vast territory. No one could accuse the Trump 2.0 presidency of lacking ambition and determination, but equally his words as president carry immense weight and, even compared to his highly disruptive first term, he is already exceeding himself in terms of destabilizing an already fragile international system.
It is not always possible to know how much of Trump’s rhetoric is strategic and how much is tactical
Yossi Mekelberg
The next weeks and months will reveal who, among those on the receiving end of such tactics, will buckle under pressure and make concessions and who might test whether this trash talk has muscle behind it.
One case in point is Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who treated President Joe Biden with complete disdain, ignoring all his requests to reach a Gaza ceasefire deal, before making an impressive U-turn when Trump demanded exactly the same. Trump’s special envoy to the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, allegedly used rather “salty” language in his conversations with Netanyahu. He then, according to one Israeli TV channel, delivered a stern message from Trump, who unequivocally demanded that the deal be finalized before his inauguration.
Despite opposition from within the Israeli Cabinet, the deal was agreed and its first phase is now underway. Admittedly, this is a very different case to that of suggesting an infringement of another country’s sovereignty. And its lessons might be more applicable to stopping the war in Ukraine, where Trump is reported to be ready to warn Vladimir Putin that he is prepared to tighten the economic screws on Russia if the latter should refuse to open negotiations with his counterpart in Kyiv, or not to do so in good faith.
For now, the pace and spectrum of the executive orders issued in Trump’s first week makes one’s head spin. No US administration has the capacity to implement the entire agenda that these executive orders address.
What might also hamper Trump’s second term is his long list of axes to grind with those who, for instance, did not subscribe to his claim that the presidential election of 2020 was stolen from him or those who questioned his suitability to be president.
Those who founded America dreamed of building “a city upon a hill, the eyes of the world upon us,” and this was followed by President John Quincy Adams’ warning that America “goes not abroad in search of monsters to destroy.” Trump must ensure his second term does not act against these two maxims.
• Yossi Mekelberg is a professor of international relations and an associate fellow of the MENA Program at Chatham House. X: @YMekelberg