Who will be the winners in space in 2025?

Every year begins with a series of reports about the future of the space industry. I will not go over the size and importance of the space economy. Yet, the fact is that the immediate present is what will determine the future of space. Whether in China, where space actors are state-owned, or in the US, where the private sector is taking the lead, we are now reaching the point of winner-takes-all scenarios. And 2025 will be the year the identity of the winners is shaped.

The winner-takes-all aspect of space is impacted by the fact that the lion’s share of business orders today still come from governments and mainly sovereign institutions. The commercial part of the space economy is still too small to make a difference. So, this year’s strategic decisions will determine the winners of the competition for space, especially in the Western part of the world.

There is no doubt that SpaceX has positioned itself as the cornerstone in a cornerstone year. In 2024, SpaceX conducted 138 launches, comprising 132 Falcon 9 missions, two Falcon Heavy missions and four Starship test flights. Globally, there were 259 orbital launch attempts last year. Only two of these launches were from Europe.

When looking at the space economy, we notice that the legacy actors are still capturing the biggest share

Khaled Abou Zahr

Regarding payload mass, SpaceX delivered about 1.6 million kg to orbit in 2024. This is close to 80 percent of all orbital payload mass. The interesting part is that SpaceX has been focusing on Starlink missions, which accounted for some 67 percent of its total launches. Hence, it has created a self-fulfilling prophecy that will give it the lead. Blue Origin successfully launched its New Glenn rocket last week, but it failed to land on a platform in the Atlantic Ocean. This highlights the difficulty of space.

These attempts offer confirmation, if it were needed, that space presents a historic opportunity in terms of business and investment. Yet, it is much like media or tech — an outlier business. This means that growth is captured by a limited number of players and unevenly. And just like in tech, the US has been capable of creating a new wave of giants within space and defense. Europe has not yet been able to do so.

Indeed, when looking at the space economy, we notice that the legacy actors are still capturing the biggest share and this extends to defense and security due to the dual-use nature of the business. These companies, whether in the US or Europe, have their origins in the 1920s, for the most part, with a revival in new technologies after the Second World War. The nature of conducting business in these fields has made it difficult for new players to reach critical mass and not be absorbed. With space and defense, the US has new champions being developed and being disruptive exactly a century later. Europe is still trying to figure this out.

The other key transformation for space is the obvious artificial intelligence element. And here, it is interesting to notice that a space company working on AI solutions, whether for Earth observation or for space situational awareness, might be at a disadvantage compared to a pure AI giant who will be able to apply its model to space. This is why we are noticing a big focus on sister companies or convergence with others in order to meet this need. Here too, the US is at a clear advantage.

We understand that any country that does not have launch capacity will always be reliant on and subservient to another nation. This does not mean that every nation should develop its own launch capacity, because the investment might not be worth it for its needs, but it will have to maintain good relations with the ones that do. Some nations, or the EU, will probably decide to maintain this capacity at a much higher cost than other services for sovereignty reasons. Yet, commercially, it will not make sense and will not allow for the same growth as in the US. China and India will benefit from their public-private partnerships and will most certainly be able to achieve greater capacity at lower costs. India might surpass many other countries in the future.

This year will see a greater drift from space as a global platform for collaboration toward a world of tough competition

Khaled Abou Zahr

Something else is also clear. Even if commercialization is still in development, the opportunity is real. Hence, this year will see a greater drift from space as a global platform for collaboration toward a world of tough competition. In the West, access to the US market will be of utmost importance for any company that wishes to become perennial.

A direct consequence of this growing interest is space militarization. Nations need to protect their satellites as, in today’s data-driven world, losing satellites means going blind. This means that military buildup in space is now a necessity. Moreover, nations will also look for ways to maintain satellites for longer and service them faster. This will see the beginning of in-orbit services going from repairs and refueling to even data storage and energy. Earth’s gravity is costly, so limiting the need for launches will increase efficiency.

And here we reach the next step, which is the moon. The development of infrastructure on the moon will be the realization of a new scope. First, launches from the moon will cost less. It could also become a station to service the in-orbit ecosystem. Crucially, this means protecting this infrastructure, so it would be a military base or outpost. SpaceX believes the moon is a distraction and Mars should be the direct target in the scope of making humans multiplanetary to avoid extinction. Yet, for now, the geopolitics of Earth’s orbit is the dominating factor.

Just as the nation that mastered the oceans mastered the planet, we are now moving toward nations mastering space. And just as in the past, when only a few companies that were intrinsically linked to the state and its decision-making dominated, space is going the same way. This is why this year will be decisive in determining the few winners.

• Khaled Abou Zahr is the founder of SpaceQuest Ventures, a space-focused investment platform. He is CEO of EurabiaMedia and editor of Al-Watan Al-Arabi.