Crude falls on US tariff reprieve, stronger dollar

Pressuring prices on Tuesday was a stronger US dollar, as its strengthening makes oil more expensive for holders of other currencies. Reuters
Pressuring prices on Tuesday was a stronger US dollar, as its strengthening makes oil more expensive for holders of other currencies. Reuters
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Crude falls on US tariff reprieve, stronger dollar

Crude falls on US tariff reprieve, stronger dollar

LONDON: Oil prices fell on Tuesday as investors assessed US President Donald Trump’s plans to apply new tariffs later than expected while boosting oil and gas production in the US.

Brent crude futures were down $1.42, or 1.77 percent, to $78.73 per barrel at 1116 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures were down by $1.97, or 2.53 percent, at $75.91. There was no settlement in the US market on Monday due to a public holiday.

Pressuring prices on Tuesday was a stronger US dollar, as its strengthening makes oil more expensive for holders of other currencies.

Trump did not impose any sweeping new trade measures right after his inauguration on Monday, but told federal agencies to investigate unfair trade practices by other countries.

The US president also said his administration would “probably” stop buying oil from Venezuela.

Trump also promised to refill strategic reserves, a move that could be bullish for oil prices by boosting demand for US crude oil.

Also weighing on prices on Tuesday was the potential end to the shipping disruption in the Red Sea. Yemen’s Houthis on Monday said they will limit their attacks on commercial vessels to Israel-linked ships provided the Gaza ceasefire is fully implemented.


Aramco chief expects additional oil demand of 1.3 mln bpd this year

Aramco chief expects additional oil demand of 1.3 mln bpd this year
Updated 13 sec ago
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Aramco chief expects additional oil demand of 1.3 mln bpd this year

Aramco chief expects additional oil demand of 1.3 mln bpd this year
DAVOS, Switzerland: Saudi oil giant Aramco’s Chief Executive Amin Nasser said on Tuesday he sees the oil market as healthy and expects an additional 1.3 million barrels per day of demand this year.
Speaking to Reuters on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Nasser was responding to a question on the impact of US President Donald Trump’s energy decisions, which could increase US hydrocarbon output.
Oil demand this year will approach 106 million barrels per day after averaging about 104.6 million barrels per day in 2024, he said.
“We still think the market is healthy ... last year we averaged around 104.6 million barrels (per day), this year, we’re expecting an additional demand of about 1.3 million barrels ... so there is growth in the market,” he said.
Asked about US sanctions on Russian crude tankers, he said the situation was still at an early stage.
“If you look at the impacted barrels, you’re talking about more than 2 million barrels,” he said. “We will wait and see how would that translate into tightness in the market, it is still in the early stage.”
Asked if China and India have sought additional oil volumes from Saudi Arabia on the back of the sanctions, Nasser said Aramco is bound by the levels the kingdom’s energy ministry allows it to pump. Saudi Arabia has been pumping at about three quarters of its output capacity, as part of agreements with OPEC+ to support the market.
“The kingdom and the Ministry of Energy is always looking at balancing the market. They take that into account when they give us the target of how much we should put in the market,” he said.
Aramco is working with MidOcean, an LNG firm in which it took a 51 percent stake, and “looking at expanding our position globally in LNG,” without giving details, Nasser said.

Saudi economy minister speaks on global growth, US economic policies, Vision 2030

Saudi economy minister speaks on global growth, US economic policies, Vision 2030
Updated 26 min 59 sec ago
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Saudi economy minister speaks on global growth, US economic policies, Vision 2030

Saudi economy minister speaks on global growth, US economic policies, Vision 2030
  • Kingdom looking ‘forward’ to ‘dialogue’ with new US administration, says Faisal Alibrahim
  • More global economic integration vital to ‘protect the flow of trade, goods and services’

DUBAI: Saudi Arabia’s Minister of Economy and Planning Faisal Alibrahim on Tuesday said the Kingdom would continue to assess shifting US economic policies as it eyes more integration to help protect global trade.

Alibrahim made the comments during a panel discussion at the World Economic Forum in Davos.

Moderator Steve Sedgwick asked Alibrahim about US President Donald Trump’s plan, announced during his inauguration on Monday, to maximize America’s oil and gas production.

“Do these American policies, as spoken about by the 47th US president, pose a direct threat to Saudi Arabia, which has been a reliable supplier of oil to the US for decades?” asked Sedgwick.

Alibrahim said: “The Kingdom is more integrated in the global economy, more of the stuff we do at home impacts not just the region but the global economy and vice versa.”

However, the minister said it would require time to understand what the economic policy of the Trump administration would look like in order to understand its impact.

“We’re always assessing what policies would look like and how we need to respond, but we’re relying on dialogue and continued mutual benefit and value,” he said.

“With the US, we’ve had a longstanding, strong relationship that spanned eight decades, regardless of which administration was in office, and we look forward to continuing the discussion with this administration.”

“It’s time for more economic integration regionally and more clear bilateral arrangements or agreements that help protect the flow of trade, goods and services.”

Alibrahim said that it would take almost a year to see the impact of such new US policies.

“Whether it’s deregulation, industrial policy, trade policy, I think it’ll take us a quarter or two to understand what that would look like exactly, what the impact would be. Maybe then in a year to understand exactly what that would mean for the global economy.”

“Regardless, I think whatever the US economic policy would look like would not just be something that would impact the global economy today (or) in the near future. It’ll probably be the seeds towards a long-term restructure in the global economy.”

The panelists at Tuesday’s session discussed the global growth rate noting that it is projected at 3.3 percent in 2025, compared to around 4 percent over the past 30 years.

The minister said global growth would be boosted by building the right social capabilities and investing in human capital.

“I think we’re shifting to a new form of globalization ... the sooner we know what that looks like, the more clear it’ll be what the pathways for growth are going to be,” he said.

Alibrahim said universities in the Kingdom are gathering data on Saudi Arabia’s economy to help “fire up new engines of growth or reinvigorate all sectors.”

He added: “Vision 2030 is an example of leveraging on all of these opportunities, (and) also trying to be a voice for shaping a more prosperous future.”

He also highlighted the transformative initiatives of the Kingdom’s Vision 2030 to diversify the economy, foster global partnerships, and strengthen the private sector.

Alibrahim said Vision 2030 “is a long-term restructuring of our economy so that we’re more resilient and more ready for future growth.”


Financial services firms harnessing AI to revolutionize efficiency and processes, says BNY executive 

Financial services firms harnessing AI to revolutionize efficiency and processes, says BNY executive 
Updated 48 min 21 sec ago
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Financial services firms harnessing AI to revolutionize efficiency and processes, says BNY executive 

Financial services firms harnessing AI to revolutionize efficiency and processes, says BNY executive 
  • Processes that would have taken days or weeks now completed in minutes, thanks to AI

DAVOS: Artificial intelligence is revolutionizing how financial institutions operate by streamlining operations at an unprecedented scale, according to a senior executive at BNY.

Hani Kablawi, senior executive vice president and head of international at the American financial services giant, told Arab News the company had leveraged AI for more than five years to enhance operational efficiency, cybersecurity and decision-making processes within its own operations.

Speaking at the World Economic Forum annual meeting in Davos, he added AI had been instrumental in identifying and rectifying potential trade failures. This has allowed clients to re-enter the market faster and improved liquidity at scale, and allowed BNY to make earlier, more informed investment decisions by providing accurate and constantly updated cash balance data.

“As a result of that, we’ve been able to let clients know that there is latency in their systems early because of behind-the-curve volumes going through accounts,” Kablawi said.

“And in doing so, we’ve given our clients the ability to fix or remediate issues a lot earlier in the process than they might have been able to because we have that data.”

All of which, he added, ensured smoother operations by comparing real-time data with historical patterns.

The recent introduction of the internal AI system “Eliza” at BNY has significantly increased productivity, Kablawi said, adding that preparing insights for client meetings — a task that previously took days or even weeks — could now be completed in minutes.

This efficiency extends across investment, resource allocation and operational decision-making, enabling better-informed and faster outcomes, he said.

The bank is also carefully balancing the use of external AI solutions with internal developments, making sure to integrate capabilities within its own secure infrastructure to maintain control over its vast data holdings. 

“We look externally to new capabilities that are being launched and being able to apply that new technology on our data,” he said.

“We’ve got $52 trillion worth of assets in custody and administration, and another $50 trillion in assets under data management, there’s a significant dataset that we’re able to apply the technology to. So, I think we’re in the beginning stages of really extracting the benefits out of AI.”

Saudi Arabia and the wider Gulf region are actively tapping into these benefits, Kablawi added.

Google, AWS and Microsoft Azure are working, albeit on different pathways, on introducing cloud capabilities in the Kingdom and other Gulf markets, while BNY is actively engaging with these providers to ensure their data analytics capabilities can be launched locally.

“As you would expect, we and others are talking to them to make sure that our data analytics capabilities can be launched in-market so that we can comply with local residency data rules, but also enable a data and analytics offering in those markets to a broader market, not just to those that are leading in the space,” he said.

Kablawi highlighted the region’s success in diversifying its stakeholder base through robust trade and investment partnerships, both inbound and outbound.

He emphasized that a well-executed multilateral strategy had strengthened the region’s resilience and created a more stable investment climate, despite heightened geopolitical, energy and climate concerns in the past 18 months. He also noted Saudi Arabia’s particular success in advancing multilateralism, especially over the past five years.

With the inauguration of Donald Trump as the 47th US president having taken place on Jan. 20, Kablawi said many of those in the investor sector would be watching what comes next “with interest.”

He continued: “(With potential) closure of borders and destruction of supply chains or any change in supply chain dynamics, that could create a bit more of an inflationary environment. But we think the growth environment is strong enough that on balance we continue to predict positive flows toward the US (market).”


Saudi Arabia’s natural gas output to grow by 4% in 2025: IEA 

Saudi Arabia’s natural gas output to grow by 4% in 2025: IEA 
Updated 21 January 2025
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Saudi Arabia’s natural gas output to grow by 4% in 2025: IEA 

Saudi Arabia’s natural gas output to grow by 4% in 2025: IEA 

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s natural gas production is projected to rise by 4 percent in 2025, driven by the planned start-up of key projects, including Jafurah Phase 1 and Tanajib, according to an analysis. 

In its Gas Market Report for the first quarter of 2025, the International Energy Agency highlighted that Jafurah Phase 1 will add 2 billion cubic meters of natural gas annually to the Kingdom’s production capacity, while the Tanajib project is expected to contribute 27 billion cubic meters per year. 

Saudi Aramco estimates the Jafurah unconventional gas field holds 229 trillion cubic feet of raw gas and 75 billion barrels of condensate. In July 2024, the energy giant secured agreements worth $25 billion for the second phase of the Jafurah development and the third stage of expanding its master gas system. 

The IEA report noted that Saudi Arabia’s gas production increased by an estimated 2 percent in 2024, bolstered by the full-year impact of the Hawiyah Gas Plant expansion and the first phase of the South Ghawar unconventional project, which both came online in late 2023. 

Additionally, the Kingdom launched operations at the Hawiyah Gas Storage facility in September 2024, marking a milestone in its Liquid Displacement Program, which aims to replace oil with a 50:50 mix of gas and renewables in the electricity sector. 

Regional outlook 

The IEA’s report highlighted that the Middle East is expected to add more than 20 bcm in natural gas production between 2023 and 2025, representing a 3.3 percent increase. 

Oman, which increased output by over 4 percent in 2024, is projected to see an additional 3 percent growth in 2025, driven by production from Block 10 and upgrades to its domestic gas grid.

However, Qatar’s natural gas production declined by 2 percent in 2024 due to shrinking domestic consumption and the accelerated adoption of solar power.  

“Gas production in 2025 is expected to remain broadly flat as Qatar’s next major expansion project at North Field East is not expected to start up before 2026,” stated the energy agency.  

Iran’s production growth is projected to be modest, with increases of less than 2 percent in 2024 and just over 1 percent in 2025. 

The IEA also noted that the Middle East is increasingly turning to natural gas for power generation. 

“Natural gas is increasingly displacing oil and oil products in various sectors. This trend is supported by policies, evolving regulatory frameworks and market dynamics,” said IEA.  

It added: “In the Middle East, the role of natural gas in the power sector has been increasing in the past decade and oil-to-gas switching continued in 2024, driven by Iran, Iraq, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia.”  

Global outlook 

Globally, the IEA forecasts tight natural gas markets through 2025, with demand outpacing supply growth.  

“Gas market fundamentals have improved over the past year, but for now, we are still seeing significant tightness due to rising demand and muted growth in LNG capacity. Heightened geopolitical uncertainty adds to the risks,” said Keisuke Sadamori, the IEA’s director of Energy Markets and Security.  

He added: “While international cooperation on gas supply security has expanded since the recent energy crisis began, greater efforts are needed from responsible producers and consumers, who should strengthen their collective efforts to reinforce the architecture for safe and secure global gas supplies.” 

In December 2024, a separate report by the World Bank stated that global natural gas consumption growth in 2024, 2025, and 2026 is expected to return to its pre-pandemic average from 2015 to 2019. 

“Growth is primarily driven by the Asia-Pacific region, Middle East and Eurasia. Consumption growth is expected to be similar in 2025 and 2026, with Eurasia demand expected to moderate and European and North American demand to stagnate,” said the World Bank.  

It added that the future market dynamics of the gas industry will be influenced by conflict escalation in the Middle East, broader geopolitical developments, and increased competition for LNG shipments.  

The IEA also noted that global gas demand rose by 2.8 percent in 2024, significantly outpacing the average growth rate from 2010 to 2020. However, it predicts that growth will slow to below 2 percent in 2025, with Asia accounting for the majority of the rise. 


Saudi reserves at central bank grow to $450bn

Saudi reserves at central bank grow to $450bn
Updated 21 January 2025
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Saudi reserves at central bank grow to $450bn

Saudi reserves at central bank grow to $450bn

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s reserves at the Kingdom’s central bank saw a 2.8 percent year-on-year rise to SR1.69 trillion ($450.31 billion) in November.

These assets include monetary gold, foreign accounts, and special drawing rights — the International Monetary Fund’s reserve position.

The latter category comprises currency and deposits abroad as well as investments in foreign securities and accounted for 94.6 percent of the total, reaching SR1.6 trillion — an annual rise of 3.12 percent.

Special drawing rights declined to SR77.5 billion, a slight decrease of 0.8 percent, accounting for 4.6 percent of Saudi Arabia’s total reserves.

Created by the IMF to supplement member countries’ official reserves, SDRs derive their value from a basket of major currencies, including the US dollar, euro, Chinese yuan, Japanese yen, and British pound sterling. 

SDRs can be exchanged among governments for freely usable currencies when needed. 

In addition to providing supplementary liquidity, SDRs help stabilize exchange rates, act as a unit of account, and facilitate international trade and financial stability.

The IMF reserve position totaled around SR12.25 billion but recorded an 11.3 percent decline during this period. This category represents the amount a country can draw from the IMF without conditions.

Gold reserves remained steady at SR1.62 billion, a level unchanged since February 2008.

In November, Saudi oil giant Aramco paid $31.1 billion in dividends for the quarter, significantly boosting the country’s reserves.

The Kingdom’s government, which directly holds nearly 81.5 percent of Aramco, receives the majority of these dividends, effectively funneling substantial financial inflows into state coffers.

Investing in foreign assets is a key strategy for SAMA to bolster the nation’s monetary stability and enhance its economic resilience.

Through a diversified portfolio of foreign securities and currency deposits abroad, SAMA ensures liquidity to meet external payment obligations, supports the Saudi riyal’s exchange rate stability, and creates a buffer against global economic fluctuations.

Historically, foreign currency and deposits abroad formed the bulk of Saudi Arabia’s foreign reserves, primarily driven by oil exports. However, since 2004, a shift has been noted in the composition of these reserves.

Data from SAMA shows that investment in foreign securities began to exceed international currency and deposits, rising from a 50.5 percent share in 2004 to 81 percent by June 2007, and standing at 59.75 percent in November.

This shift reflects the Kingdom’s growing focus on diversifying its reserve assets and optimizing foreign reserve management.

To further support oil prices and secure stable oil revenues, Saudi Arabia has played a crucial role in the OPEC+ alliance. Since 2017, the Kingdom has actively participated in oil output cuts to balance global supply and demand.

This strategy, which has kept Saudi Arabia’s production around 9 million barrels per day in recent years, is aimed at supporting oil prices, stabilizing the Kingdom’s oil revenue, and strengthening the global oil market.

Saudi Arabia has been gradually shifting its investment strategy, moving away from holding the majority of its foreign assets within the central bank.

Instead, the focus has been on building substantial sovereign wealth bodies, such as the Public Investment Fund and the National Development Fund, which together manage hundreds of billions of dollars.

This shift aligns with the Kingdom’s broader objective to diversify its reserves and strategically invest in both domestic and international assets.

A key component of this transformation is the Fiscal Sustainability Program, which aims to decouple public spending from fluctuating oil revenues, avoiding the pro-cyclical spending patterns seen in past oil booms.

By expanding PIF and enhancing its capacity to invest in non-oil sectors, Saudi Arabia is actively working to reduce its dependence on oil and ensure a more stable and resilient economic future.