Solving the Arab world’s approaching youthquake

In the Arab world, where about two-thirds of the region’s population is under the age of 30, the acuteness of the socioeconomic development challenge over the next decade cannot be understated. By 2030, consensus among key stakeholders holds that the ability of Arab countries to harness the potential of their youth will define their long-term prosperity and stability. However, with only half a decade left, that window is shrinking fast given the lack of the sort of whole-of-society transformations necessary to tap into the region’s most dynamic demographic.
For most Arab youths, meanwhile, the approaching tremors transcend issues typically shoehorned as mere security concerns by the region’s governments, demanding often heavy-handed anti-radicalization or counterthreat strategies. Instead, most young people are focused more on battles closer to home, such as better education outcomes, availability of jobs, affordable housing, and greater economic participation, particularly for women.
In other words, the youth bulge in Arab societies is not merely a demographic phenomenon for scholars to litigate in exhaustive research, or for policymakers and regional governments to pensively scratch their heads over given the lack of easy answers. It is the loudest call yet for a comprehensive strategic shift, a fundamental reworking of social contracts to center the most populous demographic in the Arab region’s future.
Traditional approaches that focus solely on creating jobs or stabilizing demographics have proven to be just insufficient bean counting. This is typical of the woeful governance failures in the region where leaders prioritize being seen to be doing “something,” while sidestepping key decisions and long-overdue reforms. Instead, the region is deeply in need of a multifaceted strategy that addresses the root causes of the systemic issues crippling full empowerment of its youth.
There is no shortage of potential solutions, even in the limited time frame that Arab world governments have to platform, debate, legislate, and implement transformational decisions. First, education and skills development are probably the most immediate need; the currently misaligned educational outcomes and labor market persistently exacerbate the issue of rampant youth unemployment — of which the Arab region has had the highest rate of youth joblessness in the world for over 25 years.
Many graduates earn degrees in oversaturated fields, making it nearly impossible to find jobs that match their education. Such a disconnect not only stifles growth but also wastes human potential, while creating unintended biases that mostly favor employment in an already bloated public sector, draining precious human capital needed to energize private sector growth. Governments should, therefore, focus on vocational training and industry partnerships to provide young people with practical skills directly applicable to the job market, enhancing their employability and aiding development.
The integration of local industries in educational planning can help create curricula that better meet current economic demands, while laying a solid foundation for the transformation of future labor markets. For effective human development, it is essential to address both educational quality and accessibility, ensuring that marginalized groups, particularly young women, receive equitable opportunities. As these reforms take shape, the collaboration between state and private sectors should be characterized by a commitment to not-for-profit education focusing on quality and inclusivity, avoiding the pitfalls of commercialization that can deepen socioeconomic divides. 

Gender empowerment is a strategic economic necessity.

Hafed Al-Ghwell

Second, financial exclusion of youth in Arab economies presents both a challenge and immense opportunity for economic dynamism. In a world where the Arab region has the lowest rate of financial inclusion globally, with only 32 percent of young people having access to financial services, it becomes imperative to dismantle such barriers thwarting youth entrepreneurship. High unemployment rates compound the issue, making it vital to evolve beyond the 9 percent credit allocation to youth-led enterprises and confront regulatory barriers and high costs that stifle enthusiasm for entrepreneurship.
By cultivating a sound financial framework that encompasses microfinance and relaxed regulations, Arab nations can harness the ingenuity of millions poised to enter the labor market — a projected increase of 14 million by 2030. This approach is not only a mechanism to spur growth but also a tangible shift away from youths languishing in informal sector employment, thus charting a course toward sustainable autonomy and prosperity for young innovators eager to contribute to their economies.
Third, gender empowerment is not only a moral imperative but also a strategic economic necessity. With the workforce participation rate of women in the Arab region languishing at less than 20 percent, this potential remains grossly underutilized. Societies that invest in women see transformative benefits, including increased economic productivity and enhanced well-being for future generations. However, disparities in education continue to hinder progress. While some countries have seen improvements in enrolments, a sharp decline in female participation at higher levels reveals enduring societal barriers. Investing in women’s education, ensuring their entry into formal labor markets, and supporting their entrepreneurial ambitions are necessary action steps with the power to unlock a significant “gender dividend,” guaranteeing periods of sustained growth.
Fourth, reducing the Arab region’s informal employment sectors is essential for achieving economic stability and growth. Informal employment, which affects around 50 percent of the workforce in non-agricultural sectors of countries such as Egypt, Jordan, and Tunisia, is characterized by low wages and unstable conditions, contributing to a cycle of poverty and limited upward mobility. Formalizing these jobs through targeted legislation and incentives can significantly improve worker protections and introduce benefits such as pensions, health and social insurance, creating a secure and motivated workforce. This transition could also enhance productivity and fiscal contributions, addressing the persistent issue of skill mismatches that hobble economic growth.
Restoring dignity across all employment sectors in the Arab region is crucial for shifting societal perceptions that stigmatize manual and service jobs. Recognizing the essential role of every job, from agriculture to construction, can spark a cultural shift that values diverse career paths which also guarantee adequate protections and fair wages. Elevating all forms of labor can stimulate a more inclusive workforce, encouraging youth to embrace various professions without the fear of social exclusion.
In sum, addressing the Arab world’s youth challenge should go far beyond traditional methods. It requires new approaches that encompass educational reform, financial inclusion, gender empowerment, labor market formalization, and cultural transformation. By implementing these changes, guided by on-the-ground realities, the region could create a sustainable and prosperous future, leveraging its youthful population as a driver of growth and stability.
The Arab world’s approaching youthquake presents an opportunity, not a crisis — one that, if managed wisely, can yield substantial economic and social dividends for generations to come.

• Hafed Al-Ghwell is a senior fellow and executive director of the North Africa Initiative at the Foreign Policy Institute of the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies in Washington, DC.
X: @HafedAlGhwell