Frankly Speaking: Fareed Zakaria on Israel, Gaza and the region post-Oct. 7

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Updated 05 October 2024
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Frankly Speaking: Fareed Zakaria on Israel, Gaza and the region post-Oct. 7

Frankly Speaking: Fareed Zakaria on Israel, Gaza and the region post-Oct. 7
  • No matter which presidential candidate wins, they will have limited ability to influence Israel, says renowned journalist and author
  • Says the world may have overestimated Hezbollah’s fighting capacity and Iran’s ability to mount a meaningful response

RIYADH: No matter who becomes the next US president, they will have very little ability to rein in Israeli excesses in Gaza, Lebanon, and the wider Middle East, CNN journalist, author and political analyst Fareed Zakaria has said.

Although Democratic Party nominee Kamala Harris may be willing to adjust the Biden administration’s stance on Gaza if she is elected, Zakaria believes the nature of US politics will leave her hands effectively tied.

“I doubt you’re going to see much reining in that the American president is able to do,” Zakaria said on the Arab News current affairs program “Frankly Speaking” during a visit to Saudi Arabia for the Riyadh International Book Fair, where he was promoting his latest book, “Age of Revolutions.”

The Indian-born American journalist is the host of CNN’s Fareed Zakaria GPS and writes a weekly column for The Washington Post. A prolific author, Zakaria has a Ph.D. in government from Harvard University where he studied under such famous scholars as Samuel P. Huntington and Stanley Hoffmann.




Zakaria told “Frankly Speaking” host Katie Jensen that Israel seems to have decided to take this opportunity and try to do something much more dramatic to turn the tables on this “Axis of Resistance.” (AN photo)

The American political model made it difficult for Washington to take a firmer line on Israel, he told “Frankly Speaking” host Katie Jensen.

“There will be a bit on the margins,” Zakaria said. “I suspect a Democratic administration would be able to restrain them a little more.”

He added: “Even if Congress can pass laws, Israel probably has strong enough support that they could even override a presidential veto in some circumstances.”

By contrast, Zakaria believes the one person who could rein in Israel is Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, because Israel is eager to normalize ties with Saudi Arabia.





Zakaria told “Frankly Speaking” host Katie Jensen that Israel seems to have decided to take this opportunity and try to do something much more dramatic to turn the tables on this “Axis of Resistance.” (AN photo)

Saudi Arabia has conditioned normalization on Israel offering tangible progress on the question of Palestinian statehood and the Arab Peace Initiative first proposed by Riyadh in 2002.

“Israel wants a normalization of relations with Saudi Arabia,” said Zakaria. “If you look around the Arab world, even if you look at the US, the person with the most leverage in that sense is Mohammed bin Salman, the crown prince of Saudi Arabia.

“In return for normalization, he has the opportunity to ask for something, but it has to be something you could imagine an Israeli government accepting. So that’s going to be a very complicated dance.”

Forced to take a hardline stance by his right-wing coalition, Zakaria says, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is in no position to pursue normalization in exchange for implementing the peace plan.

“Right now, my sense is, Bibi Netanyahu is less concerned about Saudi normalization, because he realizes that anything he says that puts him on the path toward granting the Palestinians political rights, statehood, whatever, will be too much for his coalition partners that include a few very, very extreme Israeli nationalists who believe in essentially no Palestinian state, ever,” he said.

“He knows that if he goes even half a step toward that, he loses his government. So maybe that’s why he’s decided I’m going to go forward and deal with Hezbollah in a much more aggressive way because I can’t do the Saudi normalization deal anyway.”




A demonstrator holds a placard depicting Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu during a Pro-Palestinian rally in Warsaw on October 5, 2024. (AFP)

With public opinion in Israel swinging against the two-state solution to the decades-old Israeli-Palestinian conflict — especially since the Hamas-led attack of Oct. 7 — the chances of advancing any peace plan seem more remote than ever.

However, as Zakaria put in the form of a rhetorical question, what alternative is there to the “intolerable situation” that Israel finds itself in?

“Let’s be honest, Israel has changed,” he said. “It is much more right wing now. The Knesset had a vote on the two-state solution. I think only eight members of Israel’s parliament voted in favor of a two-state solution. I think it was 68 who voted against. So you’re in a very difficult place in Israel if you want a two-state solution.

“But what I come back to is, what is the solution that people in Israel have for the problem of the Palestinian people? Ehud Olmert, former Likud prime minister, so a right-wing prime minister, said very eloquently on my television program, look, there’s 6 million Palestinians in Israel who don’t have any political rights. How can Israel as a democracy continue like that?

“At some point, there has to be some resolution to that. And the only resolution, he was arguing, that makes any sense, that is compatible with the idea of Israel as a democracy, would be to give the Palestinians a state.




People demonstrate in Dublin, Ireland, on October 5, 2024, in solidarity with Palestinians in Gaza, ahead of the October 7th attack anniversary, amid the Israel-Hamas conflict. (Reuters)

“And when you talk to people who are opponents of the two-state solution, they fudge and obfuscate and meander. They don’t actually ever answer that question centrally because what they are accepting is a completely intolerable situation, which is, you know, two classes of citizens, you know, with the Palestinians not even really being citizens.

“They are citizens of nowhere. They don’t have political rights. And that surely can’t continue unendingly, but it is. We are in the 56th year of that circumstance, that occupation.”

Zakaria said he sympathizes with the Palestinian people, but believes they have been let down by both Hamas in Gaza and the Fatah-led Palestinian Authority in the West Bank.

“I think they’ve been led by a series of leaders who in the case of Hamas really have adopted a kind of terrorist mentality where it’s okay to kill women, children, civilians,” he said.

“On the other side, you have the Palestinian Authority that is so corrupt and ineffective that Abu Mazen, Mahmoud Abbas, cannot hold elections for fear of the fact that of course he will be voted out of office by an enraged Palestinian population.

“In addition to that, they missed many negotiating opportunities along the way. I do think they’ve been badly served.”




Palestinian President Mahmud Abbas (C) meeting with a delegation of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP) ahead of unity talks hosted by Egypt in al-Alamein. (AFP/File)

Following the Oct. 7 Hamas-led attack, Israel launched its retaliatory operation in Gaza. However, in solidarity with its Hamas allies, Lebanon’s Iran-backed Hezbollah began rocketing Israel from the north, opening up a second front.

What began as a relatively contained exchange of fire along the Israel-Lebanon border suddenly escalated in September, with Israel attacking Hezbollah’s communication networks, weapons caches, and its leadership, culminating in the killing of its leader Hassan Nasrallah on Sept. 27.

Iran retaliated for the killing of Nasrallah by launching a massive barrage of missiles at military targets in Israel on Oct. 1. The Iranian attack caused minimal damage, however, and appeared to be designed to send a message of deterrence rather than start an inter-state war.

But what stands out from this escalation over the past month is the surprising ease with which Israel was able to defang Hezbollah and the apparent inability of Iran to muster a meaningful defense or retort.




Lebanon's Hezbollah supporters had been busy burying dead leaders and commanders these past months as Israel continued to take them down one by one. (AFP/File)

“It’s really extraordinary, first, just to note how well Israeli intelligence was able to penetrate Hezbollah,” said Zakaria. “The pagers, the locations of the weapons caches, and of course the locations of the leadership, including Nasrallah.

“What that tells me is that Hezbollah, which was often viewed as this fearsome fighting force, had also become fat, corrupt, an organization that lived off of all kinds of corruption and arms deals and patronage from Iran, and so was more easily penetrated than one might have imagined. Israel really has destroyed a very large part of it.”

Sharing his impressions following his recent interview with Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian on CNN, Zakaria suggested that many in the West may have also overestimated Tehran’s capabilities.

“The Iranian president not only essentially said this was up to Hezbollah — and by the way, I don’t see how Hezbollah could really mount a defense; Israel is so much more powerful, its weapons are so much more powerful, and it’s supported by the US — he also implied that Iran did not have the capacity,” said Zakaria.





Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian speaks during the 79th Session of the United Nations General Assembly in New York City on September 24, 2024. (AFP)

“He said, essentially, we should call a meeting of Islamic countries to condemn what Israel is doing. That’s not a particularly lethal response that you’d imagine, and very different from his predecessors.

“I had interviewed his predecessor, President Ebrahim Raisi, only a year ago, I think. And he had a very different, much more militant, much more hardline view, and would never have expressed openly the idea that Hezbollah didn’t actually have that lethal an arsenal. So there’s some shift in Iran that’s interesting.

“You never know how much power the president has but I think that what we are seeing both with Hezbollah and with Iran is that perhaps we have painted them to be 10 feet tall when they were really, you know, more like 5 feet tall.”

Throughout the crisis in Gaza, and now in Lebanon and between Israel and Iran, the Biden administration has been at pains to prevent a slide into all-out regional war, while also maintaining staunch support for Israel’s right to exist and to defend itself.




Fareed Zakaria said regardless of who between Donald Trump or Kamala Harris becomes the next US president, US influence on Israel will not have much bearing as regards Israel's conflict with the Palestinians. (AFP/File photos)

With Americans going to the polls in November to decide whether Vice President Harris or former President Trump will form the next administration, can the Middle East expect a meaningful change of course on support for Israel? Zakaria is not so sure.

“It’s going to be very hard for either of them to do it because Bibi Netanyahu knows one country almost as well as he knows Israel, and that is the US,” he said. “And he knows how to play the American political system to his advantage.”

So, who does Zakaria expect to win the election? And does he have a preferred candidate?

“Look, anyone who tells you they know who’s gonna win is, I think, wildly exaggerating their powers of wisdom. It is essentially a statistical tie … so it would be foolhardy for me to make a prediction about who’s gonna win. I try not to approach this with the idea that I’m rooting for a team, but I’ll tell you my central concern as somebody who focuses on international affairs.”

He added: “I’m not that partisan. If Trump came in and did some good things, I'd cheer him on. When he did, I cheered him on. So, I try to approach this from the perspective of somebody who is looking at the issues and not at the horse race and who I should bet on.”
 

 


Israel’s failure to commit to full withdrawal contradicts promises made to Lebanon, Aoun says

Israel’s failure to commit to full withdrawal contradicts promises made to Lebanon, Aoun says
Updated 43 sec ago
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Israel’s failure to commit to full withdrawal contradicts promises made to Lebanon, Aoun says

Israel’s failure to commit to full withdrawal contradicts promises made to Lebanon, Aoun says
  • Aoun told Spanish Defense Minister Margarita Robles that Israel’s failure to commit to the withdrawal contradicts the promises made to Lebanon during the negotiations preceding the agreement
  • President praised the role of the Spanish battalion operating within the UNIFIL in southern Lebanon and the exceptional efforts of UNIFIL commander Maj. Gen. Aroldo Lazaro

BEIRUT: Lebanese President Joseph Aoun on Tuesday reaffirmed Lebanon’s adherence to “the completion of Israel's withdrawal from the remaining occupied territories in the south within the 60-day deadline stipulated in the agreement reached on Nov. 27, 2024, which expires in four days.”

Aoun told Spanish Defense Minister Margarita Robles, during their meeting at the Presidential Palace, that “Israel’s failure to commit to the withdrawal contradicts the promises made to Lebanon during the negotiations preceding the agreement.”

This, he said, “perpetuates tension in the border villages, prevents establishing stability, delays the return of residents to their towns, and obstructs the reconstruction of what the Israeli enemy destroyed during its aggression against Lebanon.”

Aoun said he had sent several messages to force Israel to withdraw, receiving support from the international community, “which is expected to exert pressure in this regard.”

The president praised the role of “the Spanish battalion operating within the UNIFIL in southern Lebanon and the exceptional efforts of UNIFIL commander Maj. Gen. Aroldo Lazaro, as well as the complete coordination with army units deployed in the international operations area.”

The Spanish minister underlined her country’s “support for the role Aoun is playing in Lebanon’s recovery after the difficult circumstances it has faced.”

She said: “Spain will stand by Lebanon and its people and will continue its work within the international forces,” emphasizing “the necessity of achieving the Israeli withdrawal on time to preserve stability in the south and the progress made so far.”

Robles also highlighted “Spain's collaboration with the EU to assist Lebanon in all fields.”

Meanwhile, Aoun emphasized the importance of rejecting sectarianism.

During a meeting with Sheikh Ali Qaddour, head of the Alawite Islamic Council, who came to congratulate the president, Aoun said: “Lebanon comprises various sects, and this constitutes its wealth. Each sect has its own elites, and it is essential for all groups to have representation in the government, parliament, and public administrations, similar to the representation found within the army.”

Aoun said he hoped to “form a government as soon as possible so that we can create political, economic and security stability so that citizens can live in dignity and not just in luxury.”

Aoun said: “We are at a crossroads; we can either take advantage of the current situation and rise above the trivialities of sectarian, confessional, and political matters, or we may find ourselves in a different place where the fault lies not with others, but with us for failing to fulfill our responsibilities.”

Nawaf Salam, the designated prime minister, is expected to visit Aoun to present the draft list of proposed names for the government.

Salam insists the Cabinet should consist of non-partisan and non-parliamentary figures, comprising 24 ministers.

Aoun is seeking the formation of the government before the deadline for the Israeli withdrawal, so that the new government can address the expected challenges.

Israeli forces carried out more demolition operations in the border area and bulldozed roads linking the inner neighborhoods in the town of Maroun Al-Ras.

Israeli media reported that preparations are ongoing along the border with Lebanon for the establishment of new positions for the Israeli army.

Construction teams are working to set up these new sites, which will primarily be situated between the settlements and the border fence.


After Gaza row, Berlin festival to screen Israeli hostage film

After Gaza row, Berlin festival to screen Israeli hostage film
Updated 25 min 33 sec ago
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After Gaza row, Berlin festival to screen Israeli hostage film

After Gaza row, Berlin festival to screen Israeli hostage film
  • The Berlin awards ceremony last year saw several filmmakers criticize Israel’s military campaign in Gaza
  • Palestinian filmmaker Basel Adra said the local population was being “massacred” by Israel, to applause from the audience

BERLIN: The Berlin Film Festival is set to screen a documentary about an Israeli actor taken hostage by Hamas, organizers said Tuesday, as it looks to move on from a row about alleged anti-Semitism at last year’s edition.
The documentary called “A Letter to David” by Israeli director Tom Shoval recalls his friendship and work with David Cunio who was abducted from his home in a Kibbutz on October 7, 2023.aThe film is a “tender and deeply personal lament” from Shoval, programming co-director Michael Stutz told reporters at a press conference ahead of the February 13-23 festival.
Cunio’s fate remains unknown, with hopes raised by a recent ceasefire agreement that will see Hamas return its captives and Israel release Palestinian prisoners from jails.
The Berlin awards ceremony last year saw several filmmakers criticize Israel’s military campaign in Gaza, which has now killed around 47,000 people and wounded 110,000, according to the Hamas-run health ministry in Gaza.
US filmmaker Ben Russell, wearing a Palestinian scarf, accused Israel of committing “genocide” with its bombardment of the densely populated territory.
Palestinian filmmaker Basel Adra said the local population was being “massacred” by Israel, to applause from the audience.
A spokeswoman for the German government, a staunch ally of Israel, said it was “unacceptable” that the Hamas attack on Israel which triggered the war had not been mentioned at the ceremony.
Berlin’s mayor Kai Wegner called the remarks “unacceptable” and said that there was “no place for anti-Semitism in Berlin.”
Wegner also said that he expected new festival director Tricia Tuttle to “ensure such incidents do not happen again.”
Tuttle said last month that the furor had put some film directors off the festival because of free speech concerns.
“Lots of filmmakers from Arab countries have approached us as well over the last weeks, just to make sure the festival is a space for open dialogue and discourse,” she added on Tuesday.
“Where we can, we like to have individual conversations, and we’d encourage filmmakers to come to us to talk to us about this.”
South Korean director Bong Joon-ho, famed for his 2019 prize-winner “Parasite,” is set to present his new film “Mickey 17” out of competition in Berlin.
The festival has also announced that it will give a lifetime achievement award to British actor Tilda Swinton, who has collaborated with Bong in the past.
Tuttle unveiled the full line up of films for its main competition, which includes work from American director Richard Linklater, South Korea’s Hong Sangsoo, Mexico’s Michel Franco and Radu Jude from Romania.
Linklater is returning for the first time since 2014 when he won a director’s silver bear, the second-highest award, for his epic “Boyhood” that was filmed over more than decade.


UAE’s president receives Afghanistan’s minister of interior in Abu Dhabi

UAE’s president receives Afghanistan’s minister of interior in Abu Dhabi
Updated 41 min 40 sec ago
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UAE’s president receives Afghanistan’s minister of interior in Abu Dhabi

UAE’s president receives Afghanistan’s minister of interior in Abu Dhabi
  • Sirajuddin Haqqani commends UAE’s humanitarian assistance to Afghan people

LONDON: President of the UAE Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al-Nahyan received Afghanistan’s Minister of Interior Sirajuddin Haqqani on Tuesday at Qasr Al-Shati in Abu Dhabi.

The parties discussed recent news in Afghanistan and ways to enhance bilateral cooperation, particularly in development.

They looked at efforts to support Afghanistan’s stability and promote prosperity for its people.

Haqqani praised the level of cooperation between Abu Dhabi and Kabul and commended the UAE’s humanitarian assistance to the Afghan people, the Emirates News Agency reported.


Yemen’s Houthis say to limit attacks to Israel-linked ships during truce

Yemen’s Houthis say to limit attacks to Israel-linked ships during truce
Updated 21 January 2025
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Yemen’s Houthis say to limit attacks to Israel-linked ships during truce

Yemen’s Houthis say to limit attacks to Israel-linked ships during truce
  • “We have informed international shipping companies that our military operations will focus solely on vessels linked to” Israel during the truce, said a Houthi official
  • Their campaign has severely disrupted trade routes

SANAA: Yemen’s Houthi militants said Tuesday they would limit their Red Sea attacks to vessels linked to Israel during the ceasefire in the Gaza war.
The Houthis have been attacking shipping in the vital waterway in what they say is solidarity with the Palestinians since November 2023, weeks after Hamas carried out the deadliest attack in Israeli history.
“We have informed international shipping companies that our military operations will focus solely on vessels linked to” Israel during the truce, a Houthi official told AFP on condition of anonymity.
Part of Iran’s “axis of resistance,” the Houthis have also repeatedly launched missile and drone attacks on Israel since the war in Gaza began with Hamas’s October 7 attack.
Among the vessels targeted in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden were ones the militants believed were linked to Israel, the United States and the United Kingdom.
Their campaign has severely disrupted trade routes, prompting the United States and its allies to conduct strikes against Houthi targets in Yemen.
The Houthi official also said his movement would halt its attacks against Israeli-linked vessels once every phase of the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas was implemented.
The Israel-Hamas deal, announced last week by mediators Qatar and the United States, should see 33 Israeli hostages freed in exchange for around 1,900 Palestinian prisoners in an initial 42-day phase.
A second, unfinalized phase of the agreement should see negotiations for a permanent end to the war.
The third and final phase would deal with the reconstruction of Gaza and the return of the remains of hostages who died in captivity.
On Sunday, the Houthis claimed an attack on an American aircraft carrier and warned of “consequences” for any retaliation during the ceasefire.
The US military, however, dismissed the attack claims as being part of a Houthi “disinformation campaign.”


Israeli army chief of staff submits resignation over Hamas’ Oct 7 attack

Israeli army chief of staff submits resignation over Hamas’ Oct 7 attack
Updated 21 January 2025
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Israeli army chief of staff submits resignation over Hamas’ Oct 7 attack

Israeli army chief of staff submits resignation over Hamas’ Oct 7 attack
  • Halevi, in a letter to Israel’s defense minister, had widely been expected to step down

JERUSALEM: Israel’s army chief Herzi Halevi said on Tuesday he would resign on March 6, taking responsibility for the massive security lapse on Oct. 7, 2023 when Palestinian Hamas gunmen from Gaza carried out a cross-border attack on Israel.
Halevi, in a letter to Israel’s defense minister, had widely been expected to step down. He said he would complete the Israel Defense Forces’ inquiries into Oct. 7 and strengthen the IDF’s readiness for security challenges.
“I will transfer command of the IDF in a high-quality and thorough manner to my successor,” wrote Halevi, Chief of the General Staff of Israel’s armed forces.