Can Syria cope with influx of people displaced by Israel-Hezbollah conflict in Lebanon?

Analysis Can Syria cope with influx of people displaced by Israel-Hezbollah conflict in Lebanon?
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Updated 08 October 2024
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Can Syria cope with influx of people displaced by Israel-Hezbollah conflict in Lebanon?

Can Syria cope with influx of people displaced by Israel-Hezbollah conflict in Lebanon?
  • Israel’s air and ground offensive has forced more than 100,000 people to flee across the border into war-torn Syria
  • Where once Syrian refugees were fleeing to Lebanon, it is now Syria’s turn to play host to those escaping war

LONDON: In just a week, an intensifying Israeli air and ground offensive in Lebanon has forced more than 100,000 people to flee across the border into Syria, resulting in a stark reversal of fortunes for the two beleaguered neighbors.

Where once Syrian refugees were spilling over the border, escaping violence and hardship for the relative safety of Lebanon, it is now Syria’s turn to play host to a desperate population fleeing war and economic collapse.

Both the Syrian government and civil society have been leading relief efforts. But, after 13 years of civil war, Syria is poorly equipped to adequately support the thousands displaced from Lebanon.

While Syria was an ally of Hezbollah during its 2006 war with Israel, taking in some 250,000 refugees, according to UN figures, more than a decade of fighting and economic calamity has left the country deeply impoverished.




Lebanese customs officers help a woman walk 31 July 2006 at the Masnaa border crossing between Lebanon and Syria. (AFP/File)

Authorities in Syria estimate that since Sept. 23, more than 200,000 people have arrived at border crossings in Homs, the Damascus countryside, and the coastal governorate Tartous.

The UN refugee agency, UNHCR, reports that around 60 percent of those crossing the border are actually Syrians — among the approximately 1.5 million who had fled to Lebanon after the Syrian civil war began in 2011.

Gonzalo Vargas Llosa, UNHCR’s representative in Syria, said those arriving — half of them minors — are “exhausted, scared and in need, arriving in a country that has been suffering from its own crisis and violence for more than 13 years, as well as from economic collapse.”

Speaking at a press briefing in Geneva on Sept. 27, Llosa related the story of one woman who had arrived at the border with the bodies of her two children so she could bury them in their Syrian homeland. She told aid officials that both had been killed in an Israeli airstrike.

Fearful they may face arrest, conscription, or fall victim to the ongoing violence if they returned to their home country, many Syrians had long preferred to remain in Lebanon despite the country’s economic problems and mounting hostility against their community.




A woman holds her cat in front of a destroyed building at the site of an Israeli airstrike in Dahiyeh, Beirut. (AP)

However, for those now crossing the border, the rapid escalation between Israel and Hezbollah appears to have eclipsed even these fears.

While communities in Syria welcomed their Lebanese neighbors with open arms back in 2006, treating them as guests rather than as refugees, the picture is very different today. With some 90 percent of the population barely making ends meet, few Syrians have anything to spare.

In 2018, the World Bank reclassified Syria as a low-income country. Its gross domestic product contracted by more than 50 percent between 2010 and 2020 owing to the destruction of infrastructure, the loss of workers and professionals, and the collapse of economic networks.

Nezar Mihoub, head of the Syrian Public Relations Association, said that during the 2006 war, his Damascus-based organization alone “received some 15,000 displaced people from Lebanon.”

He told Arab News: “We had around 50 volunteers who would travel to the Syrian-Lebanese border to receive and transport Lebanese families from the border to the association’s headquarters.

“During that time, thousands of Syrian families from all sects and backgrounds generously opened their homes to Lebanese people and donated goods in abundance. At one point, Syrians even provided free dental and medical care.”

In one instance, a couple who were about to get married and who had a newly furnished home even postponed their wedding to accommodate a displaced Lebanese family, said Mihoub.

“Emotions ran high in 2006, and Syrians genuinely committed to their humanitarian efforts. But today, they are weary from war and the harsh living conditions.

INNUMBERS

• 1,000 People killed in Lebanon in Israeli strikes over the past two weeks.

• 1m+ People uprooted in Lebanon by ongoing Hezbollah-Israel conflict.

“Today, after more than a decade of war, both the Syrian people and government are depleted. The current economic situation makes it impossible for Syrian families to house and feed displaced Lebanese families as they did in 2006.”

He added: “With over 90 percent of the population living below the poverty line and many families relying on remittances from relatives abroad. The country lacks the resources and financial capacity it had in 2006.”

Support from UNHCR is expected to help ease the burden on the Syrian government and civil society groups, who are determined to stand in solidarity with those who have lost their homes in Lebanon.




A protester holds a sign during a demonstration in support of Lebanese people as intense Israeli attacks across Lebanon. (AFP)

Amal, a former Syria-based humanitarian worker whose name has been changed to protect her identity, told Arab News that “with adequate funding for humanitarian organizations and the government, Syria has the capacity to support those displaced from Lebanon.”

Filippo Grandi, the UN high commissioner for refugees, posted on X that the UN is appealing for $83 million to “urgently meet the needs” of Lebanon’s displaced people, “including those who have crossed the Syrian border.”

By taking in Lebanese refugees and Syrian returnees, Amal believes Syria itself can benefit from the additional humanitarian relief.

“When the Syrian government assists Lebanon’s displaced people, humanitarian funding will be redirected to support relief efforts in Syria,” she said.

“The situation in the region is undoubtedly tragic, but the scale of the crisis will prompt donors to redirect the flow of funds into Syria, as this is an urgent response. And since funding must correspond to the number of people in need, it should increase accordingly as more individuals enter Syria.”

Local authorities, the Syrian Arab Red Crescent, UNHCR, and civil society groups are present at four official border crossings on the Syrian side of the border, including Masnaa in Jdeidat Yabous, west of Damascus, and Arida in Tartous.

Services offered to new arrivals include medical aid, food, water, and blankets, transport to shelter and accommodation, legal advice, and psychological support.

“For the time being, these needs are largely being addressed thanks to relief supplies that we and other partners had in stock, but these will need to be replenished soon,” said UNHCR’s Llosa.




Israeli soldiers fire a tank round from a military position in Kibbutz Snir, along the border between Israel and Syria. (AFP/File)

From Sept. 24 to 29, the Syrian Arab Red Crescent said its mobile clinics provided medical services to 5,074 people who were sick or injured. However, its staff say they have been overwhelmed by the scale of demand.

Local initiatives, such as the Damascus-based charity Mart Group, have stepped in to support relief efforts by distributing bottled water, snacks, and blankets. It has also been giving children wristbands with space to write their parents’ phone numbers in case they get lost.

Marwan Alrez, Mart’s general manager, whose team is stationed at the Masnaa crossing, described chaotic scenes at the border.

“When my team first arrived at the Masnaa border crossing, the first things we noticed were overcrowding, chaos and poor organization, which signaled the gravity of the situation in Lebanon,” he told Arab News.

“All of a sudden, the crossing, which previously handled around 300 travelers per day, is now receiving about 2,000 daily.”

Fortunately, most of the new arrivals have “connections or interests in Syria,” said Alrez. Indeed, while the majority are Syrian returnees, “many of the Lebanese families from South Lebanon have relatives and friends in Syria” with whom they can stay.




Fearful they may face arrest, conscription, or fall victim to the ongoing violence if they returned to their home country, many Syrians had long preferred to remain in Lebanon. (AP)

There have, however, been claims of store holders and border officials ramping up prices and demanding fees in order to profit from the flow of refugees and returnees arriving in Syria from Lebanon.

According to some reports, Syrian returnees had until the end of September been required to pay $100 at the border, while Lebanese arrivals were not asked to present any funds.

“The Syrian refugee who sought shelter in Lebanon only to face further instability now has to pay a fee for the ‘privilege’ of returning to a country that offers no home — only the high probability of arrest and torture,” Syrian activist Douna Haj Ahmad told Arab News.

“The very Syrians who have endured years of war, bombings, and oppression are cast aside, their suffering compounded by this bitter betrayal, while others are welcomed with open arms.”

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Karam Shaar, a senior fellow at the Newlines Institute for Strategy and Policy, clarified that the Syrian regime was not taking $100 from Syrians upon arrival but was in fact exchanging it for the local currency, “giving the equivalent in Syrian pounds.”

However, he told Arab News the $100 paid by Syrians at the border was “exchanged at a rate that is currently lower than the black-market rate, which is considered the fair exchange rate as it’s determined by the powers of supply and demand.”

Whatever the nature of this exchange of funds, Zaher Sahloul, president of the US-based nongovernmental organization MedGlobal, said many Syrian refugees had been left “trapped at the border, unable to pay the $100 exchange fee required to enter Syria.”

In a statement on Sept. 30, he called for “immediate action” to “lift these barriers,” adding that “there are also widespread reports of Syrian refugees in Lebanon being denied access to shelter centers, with many now sleeping on roadsides, exposed to the elements.”

On Sep. 29, the Syrian government announced a one-week suspension of the requirement for Syrian citizens to exchange $100 at border crossings when entering the country.

Officials said the suspension came “in response to the emergency circumstances resulting from the Israeli aggression on Lebanese territories and the subsequent influx of arrivals at the border crossings.”

Shaar of the Newlines Institute believes the alleged preferential treatment of Lebanese arrivals compared to Syrian citizens is partly caused by feelings of “guilt,” saying: “The Syrian regime knows that it should have done much more at least to be aligned with its own rhetoric as part of the ‘Axis of Resistance’ to support ‘Palestinian and Lebanese resistance.’”

The Axis of Resistance is a loose network of Iranian allies and proxies throughout the region opposed to Israel and its Western backers. Although Syria’s Bashar Assad regime is allied with the axis, it has been reluctant to provide material support to Hezbollah or Hamas.

“The Syrian regime is trying to distance itself as much as possible,” said Shaar. “It doesn’t want any military confrontation with Israel, and this has been the case for nearly a year now following the Oct. 7 (Hamas) attacks.”




A group of Syrian workers laugh as they head to the immigration office to flee Lebanon and cross to Syria at Jedeidet Yabus. (AFP/File)

Indeed, with armed opposition groups in control of Syria’s northwest, a Kurdish-led administration backed by 900 US troops in control of the northeast, and an ongoing Daesh insurgency in its eastern and central regions, the Assad regime has barely survived its grinding civil war, owing its success to its now preoccupied Russian, Iranian, and Hezbollah allies.

Although regime-held areas have come under repeated Israeli fire in recent years, most notably the April 1 attack on the Iranian Embassy in Damascus, these strikes have tended to be aimed at Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which uses Syria as a land corridor to deliver weapons to Hezbollah in Lebanon.

It seems likely the Syrian regime will continue to actively avoid direct involvement in the present conflict. But if events escalate any further, engulfing the wider region, it may have little choice in the matter.

 


Syria’s Sharaa: jihadist to interim head of state

Syria’s Sharaa: jihadist to interim head of state
Updated 5 sec ago
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Syria’s Sharaa: jihadist to interim head of state

Syria’s Sharaa: jihadist to interim head of state

DAMASCUS: In less than two months, Syria’s Ahmed Al-Sharaa has risen from rebel leader to interim president, after his Islamist group led a lightning offensive that toppled Bashar Assad.
Sharaa was appointed Wednesday to lead Syria for an unspecified transitional period, and has been tasked with forming an interim legislature after the dissolution of the Assad era parliament and the suspension of the 2012 constitution.
The former jihadist has abandoned his nom de guerre Abu Mohammed Al-Jolani, trimmed his beard and donned a suit and tie to receive foreign dignitaries since ousting Assad from power on December 8.
The tall, sharp-eyed Sharaa has held a succession of interviews with foreign journalists, presenting himself as a patriot who wants to rebuild and reunite Syria, devastated and divided after almost 14 years of civil war.
Syria’s new authorities also announced Wednesday the dissolution of armed factions, including Sharaa’s own Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS), which is rooted in the Syrian branch of Al-Qaeda.
Since breaking ties with Al-Qaeda in 2016, Sharaa has sought to portray himself as a more moderate leader, and HTS has toned down its rhetoric, vowing to protect Syria’s religious and ethnic minorities.
But Sharaa has yet to calm misgivings among some analysts and Western governments that still class HTS as a terrorist organization.
“He is a pragmatic radical,” Thomas Pierret, a specialist in political Islam, told AFP.
“In 2014, he was at the height of his radicalism,” Pierret said, referring to the period of the war when he sought to compete with the jihadist Daesh group.
“Since then, he has moderated his rhetoric.”
Born in 1982 in Saudi Arabia, Sharaa is from a well-to-do Syrian family and was raised in Mazzeh, an upscale district of Damascus.
In 2021, he told US broadcaster PBS that his nom de guerre was a reference to his family’s roots in the Golan Heights. He said his grandfather was among those forced to flee the territory after its capture by Israel in 1967.
According to the Middle East Eye news website, it was after the September 11, 2001 attacks that he was first drawn to jihadist thinking.
“It was as a result of this admiration for the 9/11 attackers that the first signs of jihadism began to surface in Jolani’s life, as he began attending secretive sermons and panel discussions in marginalized suburbs of Damascus,” the website said.
Following the US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003, he left Syria to take part in the fight.
He joined Al-Qaeda in Iraq, led by Abu Musab Al-Zarqawi, and was subsequently detained for five years, preventing him from rising through the ranks of the jihadist organization.
In March 2011, when the revolt against Assad’s rule erupted in Syria, he returned home and founded Al-Nusra Front, Syria’s branch of Al-Qaeda.
In 2013, he refused to swear allegiance to Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi, who would go on to become the emir of the Daesh group, and instead pledged his loyalty to Al-Qaeda’s Ayman Al-Zawahiri.
A realist in his partisans’ eyes, an opportunist to his adversaries, Sharaa said in May 2015 that he, unlike Daesh, had no intention of launching attacks against the West.
He also proclaimed that should Assad be defeated, there would be no revenge attacks against the Alawite minority that the president’s clan stems from.
He cut ties with Al-Qaeda, claiming to do so in order to deprive the West of reasons to attack his organization.
According to Pierret, he has since sought to chart a path toward becoming a credible statesman.
In January 2017, Sharaa imposed a merger with HTS on rival Islamist groups in northwestern Syria, thereby taking control of swathes of Idlib province that had been cleared of government troops.
In areas under its grip, HTS developed a civil administration and established a semblance of a state in Idlib province, while crushing its rebel rivals.
Throughout this process, HTS faced accusations from residents and human rights groups of brutal abuses against those who dared dissent, which the United Nations has classed as war crimes.


Palestinian Red Crescent says Israeli strike kills 7 in West Bank

Palestinian Red Crescent says Israeli strike kills 7 in West Bank
Updated 37 min 59 sec ago
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Palestinian Red Crescent says Israeli strike kills 7 in West Bank

Palestinian Red Crescent says Israeli strike kills 7 in West Bank
  • Palestinian Red Crescent: ‘An Israeli strike in the village of Tamun in the northern West Bank killed seven people’
  • Israeli said that its forces were involved in a ‘counterterrorism operation’ in the area

RAMALLAH, Palestinian Territories: The Palestinian Red Crescent said an Israeli drone strike in a village in the occupied West Bank killed at least seven people on Wednesday, while the military said it had struck an “armed cell.”
“An Israeli strike in the village of Tamun in the northern West Bank killed seven people,” the group said in a statement.
The Palestinian health ministry in Ramallah said eight people had been killed.
The Israeli military told AFP its forces were involved in a “counterterrorism operation” in the area.
As part of the operation, an Israeli “aircraft, with the direction of ISA (security agency) intelligence, struck an armed terrorist cell in the area of Tamun,” the military said in a statement.
Violence has soared throughout the West Bank since the war between Hamas and Israel broke out in Gaza on October 7, 2023.
Israeli troops or settlers have killed at least 870 Palestinians, including many militants, in the West Bank since the start of the Gaza war, according to the Palestinian health ministry.
At least 29 Israelis have been killed in Palestinian attacks or during Israeli military raids in the territory over the same period, according to official Israeli figures.


Palestinians’ return to northern Gaza complicates Netanyahu’s war aims

Palestinians’ return to northern Gaza complicates Netanyahu’s war aims
Updated 30 January 2025
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Palestinians’ return to northern Gaza complicates Netanyahu’s war aims

Palestinians’ return to northern Gaza complicates Netanyahu’s war aims
  • “There is no war to resume,” said Ofer Shelah, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies, a Tel Aviv think tank
  • The “total victory” envisioned by Netanyahu remains elusive

TEL AVIV: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed 15 months ago that Israel would achieve “total victory” in the war in Gaza — by eradicating Hamas and freeing all the hostages. One week into a ceasefire with the militant group, many Israelis are dubious.
Not only is Hamas still intact, there’s also no guarantee all of the hostages will be released. But what’s really raised doubts about Netanyahu’s ability to deliver on his promise is this week’s return of hundreds of thousands of Palestinians to their homes in northern Gaza. That makes it difficult for Israel to relaunch its war against Hamas should the two sides fail to extend the ceasefire beyond its initial six-week phase.
“There is no war to resume,” said Ofer Shelah, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies, a Tel Aviv think tank. “What will we do now? Move the population south again?”
“There is no total victory in this war,” he said.
‘Total victory’ is elusive
Israel launched its war against Hamas after the militant group’s Oct. 7, 2023, attack on southern Israel, in which some 1,200 people were killed and roughly 250 were taken hostage. Within hours, Israel began a devastating air assault on Gaza, and weeks later it launched a ground invasion.
Israel has inflicted heavy losses on Hamas. It has killed most of its top leadership, and claims to have killed thousands of fighters while dismantling tunnels and weapons factories. Months of bombardment and urban warfare have left Gaza in ruins, and more than 47,000 Palestinians are dead, according to local health authorities who don’t distinguish between militants and civilians in their count.
But the “total victory” envisioned by Netanyahu remains elusive.
In the first phase of the ceasefire, 33 hostages in Gaza will be freed, nearly 2,000 Palestinian prisoners in Israel will be released, and humanitarian aid to Gaza will be vastly increased. Israel is also redeploying troops to enable over 1 million Palestinians to return to their homes in northern Gaza.
In the second phase of the ceasefire, which the two sides are expected to begin negotiating next week, more hostages would be released and the stage would be set for a more lasting truce.
But if Israel and Hamas do not agree to advance to the next phase, more than half of the roughly 90 remaining hostages will still be in Gaza; at least a third of them are believed to be dead.
Despite heavy international and domestic pressure to develop a postwar vision for who should rule Gaza, Netanyahu has yet to secure an alternative to the militant group. That has left Hamas in command.
Hamas sought to solidify that impression as soon as the ceasefire began. It quickly deployed uniformed police to patrol the streets and staged elaborate events for the hostages’ release, replete with masked gunmen, large crowds and ceremonies. Masked militants have also been seen along Gaza’s main thoroughfares, waving to and welcoming Palestinians as they head back home.
A Hamas victory?
Despite the scale of death and destruction in Gaza — and the hit to its own ranks — Hamas will likely claim victory.
Hamas will say, “Israel didn’t achieve its goals and didn’t defeat us, so we won,” said Michael Milshtein, an Israeli expert on Palestinian affairs.
The return of displaced Palestinians to northern Gaza is an important achievement for Hamas, Milshtein said. The group long insisted on a withdrawal of Israeli troops and an end to war as part of any deal — two conditions that have effectively begun to be realized.
And Hamas can now reassert itself in a swath of the territory that Israel battled over yet struggled to entirely control.
To enable Palestinians to return to northern Gaza, Israel opened the Netzarim corridor, a roughly 4-mile (6-kilometer) military zone bisecting the territory. That gives Hamas more freedom to operate, while taking away leverage that would be difficult for Israel regain even if it restarted the war, said Giora Eiland, a former Israeli general who had proposed a surrender-or-starve strategy for northern Gaza.
“We are at the mercy of Hamas,” he said in an interview with Israeli Army Radio. “The war has ended very badly” for Israel, he said, whereas Hamas “has largely achieved everything it wanted.”
Little appetite to resume war
President Donald Trump could play an important role in determining the remaining course of the war.
He has strongly hinted that he wants the sides to continue to the second phase of negotiations and shown little enthusiasm for resuming the war. A visit by his Mideast envoy, Steve Witkoff, to Israel this week and a visit to the White House next week by Netanyahu will likely give stronger indications of where things are headed.
In announcing the ceasefire, Netanyahu said Israel was still intent on achieving all the war’s goals. He said Israel was “safeguarding the ability to return and fight as needed.”
While military experts say Israel could in practice relaunch the war, doing so will be complicated.
Beyond the return of displaced Palestinians, the international legitimacy to wage war that it had right after Hamas’ attack has vanished. And with joyful scenes of freed hostages reuniting with their families, the Israeli public’s appetite for a resumption of fighting is also on the decline, even if many are disappointed that Hamas, a group that committed the deadliest attack against Israelis in the country’s history, is still standing.
An end to the war complicates Netanyahu’s political horizon. The Israeli leader is under intense pressure to resume the war from his far-right political allies, who want to see Hamas crushed. They envision new Jewish settlements in Gaza and long-term Israeli rule there.
One of Netanyahu’s coalition partners already resigned in protest at the ceasefire deal and a second key ally has threatened to topple the government if the war doesn’t resume after the first phase. That would destabilize the government and could trigger early elections.
“Where is the total victory that this government promised?” Itamar Ben-Gvir, the former Cabinet minister who quit the government over the ceasefire said Monday.
Israel Ziv, a retired general, said restarting the war would require a new set of goals and that its motivations would be tainted.
“The war we entered into is over,” he told Israeli Army Radio. “Other than political reasons, I don’t see any reason to resume the war.”


Israel to free 110 Palestinian prisoners in Gaza truce swap Thursday: NGO

Israel to free 110 Palestinian prisoners in Gaza truce swap Thursday: NGO
Updated 29 January 2025
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Israel to free 110 Palestinian prisoners in Gaza truce swap Thursday: NGO

Israel to free 110 Palestinian prisoners in Gaza truce swap Thursday: NGO
  • Palestinian Prisoners’ Club said 30 minors are included in the release
  • 48 prisoners were serving jail terms of varying lengths

RAMALLAH: A Palestinian prisoners advocacy group said Israeli authorities would release 110 prisoners, including 30 minors, on Thursday as part of an exchange under a Gaza ceasefire deal agreed with Hamas.
“Tomorrow, 110 Palestinian prisoners are to be released,” the Palestinian Prisoners’ Club said in a statement, referring to the third exchange of hostages and prisoners under the truce, which began on January 19.
The group said the prisoners were expected to arrive in the “Radana area of Ramallah at around noon.”
Publishing the list of the prisoners, the group said 30 were under the age of 18, 32 had been sentenced to life imprisonment, and 48 others were serving jail terms of varying lengths.
The group also said that 20 of the prisoners set to be released would be sent into exile.
In the previous two swaps, seven Israeli hostages were freed by militants in exchange for 290 prisoners — almost all Palestinians, with the exception of one Jordanian.
On Thursday, three Israeli hostages are to be freed, along with five Thai nationals.
The three Israeli hostages are Arbel Yehud, Agam Berger and Gadi Moses. The identities of the five Thais are still unknown.
A fourth swap planned for Saturday will see three Israeli men released, according to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office.


Ship fire in Red Sea not linked to Houthi attacks, maritime center says

Ship fire in Red Sea not linked to Houthi attacks, maritime center says
Updated 29 January 2025
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Ship fire in Red Sea not linked to Houthi attacks, maritime center says

Ship fire in Red Sea not linked to Houthi attacks, maritime center says
  • Since the Houthi attacks began, most vessels have diverted to the longer east-west route via the southern tip of Africa

CAIRO: A fire aboard the Hong Kong-flagged ASL Bauhinia on Tuesday was not linked to Houthi attacks, the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden Joint Maritime Information Center said on Wednesday.
The cause of the fire remains under investigation, JMIC said.
A maritime security source told Reuters that the fire resulted from hazardous cargo on board.
There has been a spate of fires on board container ships in recent years due to flammable cargoes.
The crew of the container ship abandoned it in the Red Sea on Tuesday, according to two maritime sources.
Houthis have launched attacks on international shipping near Yemen since November 2023 in solidarity with Palestinians in the war between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip.
Earlier this month, the Houthis said the group would limit its attacks on commercial vessels sailing through the Red Sea to Israel-linked ships, provided the Gaza ceasefire is fully implemented.
Since the Houthi attacks began, most vessels have diverted to the longer east-west route via the southern tip of Africa.