Frankly Speaking: Is a new civil war inevitable in Lebanon?

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Updated 30 September 2024
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Frankly Speaking: Is a new civil war inevitable in Lebanon?

Frankly Speaking: Is a new civil war inevitable in Lebanon?
  • Far from deepening sectarianism, Israeli strikes are creating solidarity between Lebanon’s factions, says health minister
  • Dr. Firass Abiad accuses Israel of refusing to negotiate an end to conflict and of committing war crimes by killing health personnel

DUBAI: Hassan Nasrallah, the longstanding Hezbollah leader who was killed in an Israeli strike on his Beirut stronghold over the weekend, was the author of deep divisions in Lebanon, which have long threatened to drag the nation back into the mire of civil war.

Since the latest hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah suddenly escalated in mid-September, reports have circulated on social media about flare-ups in sectarian tensions in different parts of Lebanon as a result of mass displacement of people from the south.

Appearing on the Arab News current affairs program “Frankly Speaking,” Firass Abiad, Lebanon’s minister of public health, insisted the conflict had not created a sectarian split in society, as even many Shiites, who form Hezbollah’s support base, now appear to oppose the militia’s actions.

“There’s clearly a lot of people in Lebanon who oppose the politics and what Hezbollah is doing. There’s no denying that, if you talk to people,” Abiad told “Frankly Speaking” host Katie Jensen.

“This is across the board. This is not sectarian, (it’s) among all sects, including Shittes, you have people who oppose Hezbollah.”




Dr. Firass Abiad, Lebanon’s minister of public health, insisted the conflict had not created a sectarian split, even as many Shiites appear to oppose Hezbollah’s actions. (AN photo)

At the same time, however, Abiad said Israel’s strikes on Lebanon had created a spirit of solidarity across Lebanon’s multiconfessional society, similar to the sympathy generated across the Arab world for the Palestinians — even among those who oppose Hamas — in the wake of Israel’s assault on Gaza.

“What Israel is doing by these indiscriminate attacks, when they attack a Christian or even when they are attacking Shiite areas … this will only increase the feeling of solidarity with the community where Hezbollah is based,” he said.

“We’ve seen this also with Gaza. If you look at the Arab world, the support for Hamas is not high. But when people see the atrocities, the carnage that Israel is perpetrating in Gaza, I think that, unanimously, a lot of people have a lot of sympathy with the people of Palestine.

“And Israel, in the way it is conducting its war on Lebanon, has fostered this environment of solidarity.”

Abiad said this sense of solidarity was evident on Sept. 16 and 17, when Hezbollah communication devices, including pagers and walkie-talkies, exploded simultaneously in a coordinated attack blamed on Israel that killed at least 32 and injured more than 3,000.

“You could see this on the day of the attack on the explosive devices,” said Abiad. “We at the Ministry of Health were sending patients all across the country because we had to have a full response from all hospitals.

“And even when we were sending patients into hospitals that were in areas that are politically, or from a religious perspective, diametrically opposite to Hezbollah, the people who were injured were welcomed, they were cared for, they were given attention.




An ambulance brings injured Lebanese to the AUB Medical Center, on Sept. 17 after beeper blasts targeted Hezbollah operatives. (File/AFP)

“This is something that Israel has repeatedly failed to understand; that its indiscriminate targeting or its dehumanization of all, for example, Arabs, or communities, would only lead to more sympathy with the ‘said’ enemies.”

On Saturday, Hezbollah confirmed Nasrallah had been killed in an Israeli strike on the group’s Dahiyeh stronghold in Beirut. The attack follows days of Israeli strikes across Lebanon, which, as of Saturday, had left 1,030 people — including 156 women and 87 children — dead.

Hezbollah began rocketing northern Israel last October in solidarity with the Palestinian militant group Hamas, whose Oct. 7 assault on southern Israel triggered the war in Gaza. Israel retaliated by mounting strikes on Hezbollah targets.

Since mid-September, Israeli strikes on Hezbollah targets across the country have rapidly escalated. However, the roots of the conflict run deeper than last October. The two sides have been locked in an intermittent confrontation since the Lebanese civil war.

Hezbollah was formed during Israel’s 1982 invasion of Lebanon. Major escalations occurred in 1993, 1996, and particularly in 2006, when a full-scale war erupted, causing significant destruction in Lebanon.

Hezbollah has since strengthened its military capabilities, while maintaining its role in Lebanese politics. Tensions continued, with periodic border clashes, as the group has evolved into a key player in the broader Israel-Iran proxy conflict.

Israel withdrew its troops from Lebanon in 2000, creating the possibility of stability for Lebanon. However, territorial disputes remained, which Hezbollah exploited to build support and to justify continued resistance to Israel.

Does a share of the blame for the continuation of hostilities, therefore, belong to Hezbollah?

“No, that’s the exact opposite,” said Abiad. “If you go back to the UN resolutions — especially 1701. In 1701, it was very clear that, first of all, Israel has to withdraw from all the areas in Lebanon, which did not happen. And up till now, Israel still occupies Lebanese territory.”




Medical staff at a hospital care for victims after the Israeli military struck Hezbollah targets in Beirut's southern suburb last week. (File/AFP)

UN Security Council Resolution 1701, adopted in 2006, called for a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, ending the Lebanon War. It demanded the disarmament of Hezbollah, the withdrawal of Israeli forces from southern Lebanon, and the deployment of Lebanese and UN peacekeeping troops to stabilize the region and prevent future conflict.

“Secondly, it very clearly mentioned that Israel should not violate Lebanese airspace, which also did not happen; Israel has been violating Lebanese airspace continuously since the 2000 partial withdrawal from Lebanon,” said Abiad.

“So, indeed, unfortunately, these actions by Israel gave the pretext for Hezbollah to continue today what it is doing now. But let’s be very clear, Israel didn’t fulfill that part of 1701. And even now, Lebanon is saying we are ready to abide by the UN Security Council resolutions.”

One particularly irksome issue relates to the Shebaa Farms — a dispute that centers on a small strip of land claimed by Lebanon but occupied by Israel since 1967.

While Israel and the UN consider it part of Syria’s Golan Heights, Lebanon argues the area is Lebanese, fueling tensions, especially involving Hezbollah, over its sovereignty.

Given what is now occurring in Lebanon, does Abiad believe continuing the Shebaa Farms dispute with Israel has been worthwhile? Surely a negotiated deal would have been a far better option?

“But that depends on the other party accepting a negotiation,” said Abiad. “And, up to now, it has been very clear that Israel is not interested in a negotiated outcome.”

Whoever is ultimately to blame for prolonging the conflict, the result today is mass displacement, civilians killed, thousands injured, and public health system under extreme strain.

The ongoing conflict has created a massive humanitarian crisis, with widespread displacement across the country. According to the Lebanese government’s estimates, nearly 500,000 people have been forced to flee their homes due to escalating violence.

Abiad highlighted the magnitude of the displacement from the south. “Before the attacks, the number released by the disaster management side was 130,000 displaced,” he said.

“Remember that by that time, there was an escalation of hostilities by Israel, and the populations were internally displaced still into southern areas.”

Abiad said the Lebanese government has established 400 public shelters, which currently house about 70,000 people. However, he said the total number of displaced people is far higher.

“We estimate that usually, from our past experience in the 2006 war, the number of people, whether they are living with friends, family, in homes they rented, or even across the border into neighboring countries, is four to five times as many as there are in shelters,” he said.

“And that’s why we really believe that the tally of people who have been displaced is probably around 400,000 to 500,000.”

The pressure on hospitals, in particular, is reaching breaking point.

“The daily tally of casualties keeps rising, as hospitals get overwhelmed with casualties,” said Abiad. “Can we continue all this? The answer is we are working at nearly full capacity, I would say. And it is becoming more tough as the war drags on.”




“There’s clearly a lot of people in Lebanon who oppose ... what Hezbollah is doing. There’s no denying that, if you talk to people,” Dr. Firass Abiad told “Frankly Speaking” host Katie Jensen. (AN photo)

He added: “I think the most challenging would be fuel. I think that, concerning nurses, hospital beds, medical supplies, medications, as I said, we have been stocking up on our inventory. But really, fuel is going to be a critical issue.

“Hospitals, ambulances, they all require fuel to function. Now we have been increasing the renewable-energy budgets in our hospitals — 15 of our public hospitals now have renewable energy, constituting almost 40 percent of their energy requirements.

“Almost 200 of our primary health care centers now completely can work or function on renewable energy. But clearly I would say fuel is going to be critical if there is a further escalation.”

On top of this, Abiad accused Israel of deliberately targeting medical personnel — something he says constitutes a war crime.

“Do we consider this a war crime? Of course, we consider this a war crime,” said Abiad, adding that this was not just the view of the Lebanese government but echoed by international legal bodies.

“When we listen to the International Court of Justice, these are the experts on what is international humanitarian law and whether it has been violated. So these are the experts telling us that what Israel is doing constitutes war crimes.”
 

 


Israel’s failure to commit to full withdrawal contradicts promises made to Lebanon, Aoun says

Israel’s failure to commit to full withdrawal contradicts promises made to Lebanon, Aoun says
Updated 43 sec ago
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Israel’s failure to commit to full withdrawal contradicts promises made to Lebanon, Aoun says

Israel’s failure to commit to full withdrawal contradicts promises made to Lebanon, Aoun says
  • Aoun told Spanish Defense Minister Margarita Robles that Israel’s failure to commit to the withdrawal contradicts the promises made to Lebanon during the negotiations preceding the agreement
  • President praised the role of the Spanish battalion operating within the UNIFIL in southern Lebanon and the exceptional efforts of UNIFIL commander Maj. Gen. Aroldo Lazaro

BEIRUT: Lebanese President Joseph Aoun on Tuesday reaffirmed Lebanon’s adherence to “the completion of Israel's withdrawal from the remaining occupied territories in the south within the 60-day deadline stipulated in the agreement reached on Nov. 27, 2024, which expires in four days.”

Aoun told Spanish Defense Minister Margarita Robles, during their meeting at the Presidential Palace, that “Israel’s failure to commit to the withdrawal contradicts the promises made to Lebanon during the negotiations preceding the agreement.”

This, he said, “perpetuates tension in the border villages, prevents establishing stability, delays the return of residents to their towns, and obstructs the reconstruction of what the Israeli enemy destroyed during its aggression against Lebanon.”

Aoun said he had sent several messages to force Israel to withdraw, receiving support from the international community, “which is expected to exert pressure in this regard.”

The president praised the role of “the Spanish battalion operating within the UNIFIL in southern Lebanon and the exceptional efforts of UNIFIL commander Maj. Gen. Aroldo Lazaro, as well as the complete coordination with army units deployed in the international operations area.”

The Spanish minister underlined her country’s “support for the role Aoun is playing in Lebanon’s recovery after the difficult circumstances it has faced.”

She said: “Spain will stand by Lebanon and its people and will continue its work within the international forces,” emphasizing “the necessity of achieving the Israeli withdrawal on time to preserve stability in the south and the progress made so far.”

Robles also highlighted “Spain's collaboration with the EU to assist Lebanon in all fields.”

Meanwhile, Aoun emphasized the importance of rejecting sectarianism.

During a meeting with Sheikh Ali Qaddour, head of the Alawite Islamic Council, who came to congratulate the president, Aoun said: “Lebanon comprises various sects, and this constitutes its wealth. Each sect has its own elites, and it is essential for all groups to have representation in the government, parliament, and public administrations, similar to the representation found within the army.”

Aoun said he hoped to “form a government as soon as possible so that we can create political, economic and security stability so that citizens can live in dignity and not just in luxury.”

Aoun said: “We are at a crossroads; we can either take advantage of the current situation and rise above the trivialities of sectarian, confessional, and political matters, or we may find ourselves in a different place where the fault lies not with others, but with us for failing to fulfill our responsibilities.”

Nawaf Salam, the designated prime minister, is expected to visit Aoun to present the draft list of proposed names for the government.

Salam insists the Cabinet should consist of non-partisan and non-parliamentary figures, comprising 24 ministers.

Aoun is seeking the formation of the government before the deadline for the Israeli withdrawal, so that the new government can address the expected challenges.

Israeli forces carried out more demolition operations in the border area and bulldozed roads linking the inner neighborhoods in the town of Maroun Al-Ras.

Israeli media reported that preparations are ongoing along the border with Lebanon for the establishment of new positions for the Israeli army.

Construction teams are working to set up these new sites, which will primarily be situated between the settlements and the border fence.


After Gaza row, Berlin festival to screen Israeli hostage film

After Gaza row, Berlin festival to screen Israeli hostage film
Updated 25 min 33 sec ago
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After Gaza row, Berlin festival to screen Israeli hostage film

After Gaza row, Berlin festival to screen Israeli hostage film
  • The Berlin awards ceremony last year saw several filmmakers criticize Israel’s military campaign in Gaza
  • Palestinian filmmaker Basel Adra said the local population was being “massacred” by Israel, to applause from the audience

BERLIN: The Berlin Film Festival is set to screen a documentary about an Israeli actor taken hostage by Hamas, organizers said Tuesday, as it looks to move on from a row about alleged anti-Semitism at last year’s edition.
The documentary called “A Letter to David” by Israeli director Tom Shoval recalls his friendship and work with David Cunio who was abducted from his home in a Kibbutz on October 7, 2023.aThe film is a “tender and deeply personal lament” from Shoval, programming co-director Michael Stutz told reporters at a press conference ahead of the February 13-23 festival.
Cunio’s fate remains unknown, with hopes raised by a recent ceasefire agreement that will see Hamas return its captives and Israel release Palestinian prisoners from jails.
The Berlin awards ceremony last year saw several filmmakers criticize Israel’s military campaign in Gaza, which has now killed around 47,000 people and wounded 110,000, according to the Hamas-run health ministry in Gaza.
US filmmaker Ben Russell, wearing a Palestinian scarf, accused Israel of committing “genocide” with its bombardment of the densely populated territory.
Palestinian filmmaker Basel Adra said the local population was being “massacred” by Israel, to applause from the audience.
A spokeswoman for the German government, a staunch ally of Israel, said it was “unacceptable” that the Hamas attack on Israel which triggered the war had not been mentioned at the ceremony.
Berlin’s mayor Kai Wegner called the remarks “unacceptable” and said that there was “no place for anti-Semitism in Berlin.”
Wegner also said that he expected new festival director Tricia Tuttle to “ensure such incidents do not happen again.”
Tuttle said last month that the furor had put some film directors off the festival because of free speech concerns.
“Lots of filmmakers from Arab countries have approached us as well over the last weeks, just to make sure the festival is a space for open dialogue and discourse,” she added on Tuesday.
“Where we can, we like to have individual conversations, and we’d encourage filmmakers to come to us to talk to us about this.”
South Korean director Bong Joon-ho, famed for his 2019 prize-winner “Parasite,” is set to present his new film “Mickey 17” out of competition in Berlin.
The festival has also announced that it will give a lifetime achievement award to British actor Tilda Swinton, who has collaborated with Bong in the past.
Tuttle unveiled the full line up of films for its main competition, which includes work from American director Richard Linklater, South Korea’s Hong Sangsoo, Mexico’s Michel Franco and Radu Jude from Romania.
Linklater is returning for the first time since 2014 when he won a director’s silver bear, the second-highest award, for his epic “Boyhood” that was filmed over more than decade.


UAE’s president receives Afghanistan’s minister of interior in Abu Dhabi

UAE’s president receives Afghanistan’s minister of interior in Abu Dhabi
Updated 41 min 40 sec ago
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UAE’s president receives Afghanistan’s minister of interior in Abu Dhabi

UAE’s president receives Afghanistan’s minister of interior in Abu Dhabi
  • Sirajuddin Haqqani commends UAE’s humanitarian assistance to Afghan people

LONDON: President of the UAE Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al-Nahyan received Afghanistan’s Minister of Interior Sirajuddin Haqqani on Tuesday at Qasr Al-Shati in Abu Dhabi.

The parties discussed recent news in Afghanistan and ways to enhance bilateral cooperation, particularly in development.

They looked at efforts to support Afghanistan’s stability and promote prosperity for its people.

Haqqani praised the level of cooperation between Abu Dhabi and Kabul and commended the UAE’s humanitarian assistance to the Afghan people, the Emirates News Agency reported.


Yemen’s Houthis say to limit attacks to Israel-linked ships during truce

Yemen’s Houthis say to limit attacks to Israel-linked ships during truce
Updated 21 January 2025
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Yemen’s Houthis say to limit attacks to Israel-linked ships during truce

Yemen’s Houthis say to limit attacks to Israel-linked ships during truce
  • “We have informed international shipping companies that our military operations will focus solely on vessels linked to” Israel during the truce, said a Houthi official
  • Their campaign has severely disrupted trade routes

SANAA: Yemen’s Houthi militants said Tuesday they would limit their Red Sea attacks to vessels linked to Israel during the ceasefire in the Gaza war.
The Houthis have been attacking shipping in the vital waterway in what they say is solidarity with the Palestinians since November 2023, weeks after Hamas carried out the deadliest attack in Israeli history.
“We have informed international shipping companies that our military operations will focus solely on vessels linked to” Israel during the truce, a Houthi official told AFP on condition of anonymity.
Part of Iran’s “axis of resistance,” the Houthis have also repeatedly launched missile and drone attacks on Israel since the war in Gaza began with Hamas’s October 7 attack.
Among the vessels targeted in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden were ones the militants believed were linked to Israel, the United States and the United Kingdom.
Their campaign has severely disrupted trade routes, prompting the United States and its allies to conduct strikes against Houthi targets in Yemen.
The Houthi official also said his movement would halt its attacks against Israeli-linked vessels once every phase of the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas was implemented.
The Israel-Hamas deal, announced last week by mediators Qatar and the United States, should see 33 Israeli hostages freed in exchange for around 1,900 Palestinian prisoners in an initial 42-day phase.
A second, unfinalized phase of the agreement should see negotiations for a permanent end to the war.
The third and final phase would deal with the reconstruction of Gaza and the return of the remains of hostages who died in captivity.
On Sunday, the Houthis claimed an attack on an American aircraft carrier and warned of “consequences” for any retaliation during the ceasefire.
The US military, however, dismissed the attack claims as being part of a Houthi “disinformation campaign.”


Israeli army chief of staff submits resignation over Hamas’ Oct 7 attack

Israeli army chief of staff submits resignation over Hamas’ Oct 7 attack
Updated 21 January 2025
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Israeli army chief of staff submits resignation over Hamas’ Oct 7 attack

Israeli army chief of staff submits resignation over Hamas’ Oct 7 attack
  • Halevi, in a letter to Israel’s defense minister, had widely been expected to step down

JERUSALEM: Israel’s army chief Herzi Halevi said on Tuesday he would resign on March 6, taking responsibility for the massive security lapse on Oct. 7, 2023 when Palestinian Hamas gunmen from Gaza carried out a cross-border attack on Israel.
Halevi, in a letter to Israel’s defense minister, had widely been expected to step down. He said he would complete the Israel Defense Forces’ inquiries into Oct. 7 and strengthen the IDF’s readiness for security challenges.
“I will transfer command of the IDF in a high-quality and thorough manner to my successor,” wrote Halevi, Chief of the General Staff of Israel’s armed forces.