What to know after Israel’s assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah

What to know after Israel’s assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah
People gather at the site of the assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut's southern suburbs, Lebanon Sunday, Sept. 29, 2024. (AP)
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Updated 29 September 2024
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What to know after Israel’s assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah

What to know after Israel’s assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah
  • It remains to be seen whether his death will be a trigger for an all-out war between the two sides
  • Iran is the main backer of Hezbollah and other anti-Israeli militant groups in the region

BEIRUT: Israel’s assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah is a monumental and hugely demoralizing blow to the group he led for 32 years, marking a significant inflection point for Lebanon and the region.
Hezbollah’s announcement of his death Friday triggered tears and celebrations across the Arab world, pointing to the widespread reach and influence of a divisive man who has been at the forefront of Middle Eastern politics for decades.
The 64-year-old Nasrallah headed arguably the most powerful paramilitary force in the world — also a US-designated terror organization — that is now left without a clear successor at a critical juncture. It remains to be seen whether his death will be a trigger for an all-out war between the two sides that could potentially drag in Iran and the United States.
Here are some things to know about the situation:
Is it a decapitating blow?
Nasrallah’s assassination is a severe blow to the group, not a decapitating one. But analysts say Hezbollah will need some time to absorb the shock and recover.
“Nasrallah’s killing is a significant setback for Hezbollah, not only because of the pivotal role he played in Hezbollah’s strategy but also because his elimination reveals the extent of the group’s vulnerability vis-à-vis Israel,” said Lina Khatib, an associate fellow at Chatham House, an international affairs think tank.
“This will shake the confidence of Hezbollah’s Iran-backed allies across the Arab world, from the Houthis in Yemen to the Popular Mobilization Forces in Iraq, as well as Iran itself, sparking a tectonic shift in Iran’s network of influence in the Middle East,” she added.
It is not the first time Israel has killed a Hezbollah leader. Nasrallah took over from Abbas Mousawi, who was killed by an Israeli helicopter attack in 1992.
But Hezbollah today is very different from the ragtag organization it was in the ‘90s. In recent years, he has presided over an army-like group estimated to have tens of thousands of fighters and a sophisticated arsenal capable of reaching anywhere inside Israel.
It has become the chief part of a cluster of Iranian-backed factions and governments of the self-named “Axis of Resistance.”
“Hezbollah will not back down following the killing of its leader, as it will need to convey steadfastness in the face of Israel if it’s going to retain its credibility as the strongest ‘resistance’ actor in the region,” said Khatib.
Iran’s dilemma
In his first remarks Saturday following Nasrallah’s death, Iran’s supreme leader gave no indication of how Tehran will respond.
In a vague statement, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said, “all regional resistance forces” support and stand beside Hezbollah, but he did not elaborate.
Iran is the main backer of Hezbollah and other anti-Israeli militant groups in the region, but it has largely avoided clashing directly with Israel due to domestic considerations.
Hezbollah, however, is Iran’s chief ally and proxy group, and Tehran may have to respond to retain its credibility with its partners in the axis.
“Iran is very much in a policy dilemma right now,” said Firas Maksad, of the Middle East Institute. On one hand, clearly it very much has wanted to avoid an all-out and direct confrontation, given its long-standing preference for asymmetric warfare and using proxies.
“But on the other hand, a lack of a worthy response given the magnitude of the event will only encourage Israel to push deeper past Iran’s red lines,” he said. Not responding also sends a signal of weakness to its regional proxies.
Any direct Iranian involvement risks dragging Israel’s chief ally, the US, into the war, just over a month before the US elections and at a time Iran has signaled its interest in renewing negotiations with the US over its nuclear program.
Maksad said one possible scenario is a coordinated response from the entire axis. Whether that will be coupled with a direct response from Iran itself is an open question.
Who will succeed Nasrallah?
There is no one nearly as influential and respected among the group’s remaining leadership as Nasrallah.
The man widely regarded as his heir is Hashem Safieddine, a cousin of Nasrallah who oversees the group’s political affairs. It is not known if he survived Friday’s attack, and the Hezbollah statement announcing Nasrallah’s death Friday made no mention of a successor.
The group’s Shoura Council will have to meet in the coming days or weeks to choose its new leadership. Lebanese journalist and writer Maher Abi Nader said Safieddine or Nabil Kaouk, a member of the group’s executive council, were the likely successors.
Whoever ends up replacing Nasrallah in the current atmosphere will have to contend with a deeply weakened force facing growing anger and frustration on the home front.
In just over 10 days, the Iran-backed group has been hit by a series of devastating attacks that dealt a severe blow to its military structure and exposed deep intelligence failures.
Explosives hidden in the group’s pagers and walkie-talkies killed dozens of people and wounded thousands — many of them Hezbollah members. Israel has also rained down missiles on residential areas where the group has a strong presence, killing hundreds and displacing tens of thousands of people.
Nasrallah was regarded by supporters as a charismatic and shrewd leader. Despite being a divisive figure, he is credited with pushing Israeli forces from south Lebanon in 2000 following an 18-year occupation, as well as transforming the organization from a local militia to a major political player in Lebanon and a top armed force in the region.
He held tremendous sway over the group and the country’s Shiite community.
Orna Mizrahi, a senior researcher at the Tel Aviv-based think tank Institute for National Security Studies, noted that Nasrallah was sometimes a “voice of reason” who was interested in engaging Israel in a war of attrition, holding the militant group back from using the full force of their formidable arsenal against Israel.
Filling those shoes will be a tough act, analysts say.
Growing tensions in Lebanon
Any new Hezbollah leader will also have to contend with rising resentment and frustration among a significant section of the Lebanese population. For years, critics say, Hezbollah deprived Lebanon of its sovereignty by behaving as a state within a state and making unilateral decisions involving war and peace.
Many Christians and Sunnis, as well as a portion of the Shiite community, are opposed to the war and what they regard as Nasrallah’s unilateral decision to attack Israel in support of the Gaza front on Oct. 8, a day after the Hamas attack on Israel that ignited the war in the Palestinian territory.
Tensions are extremely high in tiny Lebanon, which is already drowning under the force of an economic meltdown and multiple other crises. A humanitarian crisis has rapidly unfolded with tens of thousands of people displaced, many of them sleeping in parks and makeshift shelters. Dozens of schools designated as sheltered became full within days.
The country is bankrupt and has been without a president and functioning government for two years. In the void, sectarian tensions and frustrations within the country could spiral into armed violence.
Maha Yahya, director of the Beirut-based Carnegie Middle East Center, said Hezbollah now has to contend with all of that as it struggles to regroup.
“And it will have to be more accommodating to Lebanon’s other political parties and communities,” she said.


Israeli strikes on Gaza overnight leaves more than 50 Palestinians dead

Israeli strikes on Gaza overnight leaves more than 50 Palestinians dead
Updated 56 min 27 sec ago
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Israeli strikes on Gaza overnight leaves more than 50 Palestinians dead

Israeli strikes on Gaza overnight leaves more than 50 Palestinians dead
  • The Israeli military ordered the residents of several areas — Shujaiya, Jadida, Turkomen and eastern Zeytoun — to evacuate on Thursday
  • Israel has imposed a month-long halt on all imports of food, fuel and humanitarian aid that has left civilians facing acute shortages as supplies dwindle

DEIR AL BALAH: Overnight strikes by Israel killed at least 55 people across the Gaza Strip, hospital officials said Thursday, a day after senior government officials said Israel would seize large areas of Gaza and establish a new security corridor across the Palestinian territory.
Israel has vowed to escalate the nearly 18-month war with Hamas until the militant group returns dozens of remaining hostages, disarms and leaves the territory. Israel has imposed a month-long halt on all imports of food, fuel and humanitarian aid that has left civilians facing acute shortages as supplies dwindle.
Officials in Khan Younis, in the southern part of the strip, said the bodies of 14 people had been taken to Nasser Hospital – nine of them from the same family. The dead included five children and four women. The bodies of another 19 people, including five children aged between 1 and 7 years and a pregnant woman, were taken to the European hospital near Khan Younis, hospital officials said. In Gaza City, 21 bodies were taken to Ahli hospital, including those of seven children.
The Israeli military ordered the residents of several areas — Shujaiya, Jadida, Turkomen and eastern Zeytoun — to evacuate on Thursday, adding that the army “will work with extreme force in your area.” It said people should move to shelters west of Gaza City.
On Wednesday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced Israel was establishing a new security corridor across the Gaza Strip to pressure Hamas, suggesting it would cut off the southern city of Rafah, which Israel has ordered evacuated, from the rest of the Palestinian territory.
Netanyahu referred to the new axis as the Morag corridor, using the name of a Jewish settlement that once stood between Rafah and Khan Younis, suggesting it would run between the two southern cities. He said it would be “a second Philadelphi corridor ” referring to the Gaza side of the border with Egypt further south, which has been under Israeli control since last May.
Israel has reasserted control over the Netzarim corridor, also named for a former settlement, that cuts off the northern third of Gaza, including Gaza City, from the rest of the narrow coastal strip. Both of the existing corridors run from the Israeli border to the Mediterranean Sea.
“We are cutting up the strip, and we are increasing the pressure step by step, so that they will give us our hostages,” Netanyahu said.
The Western-backed Palestinian Authority, led by rivals of Hamas, expressed its “complete rejection” of the planned corridor. Its statement also called for Hamas to give up power in Gaza, where the militant group has faced rare protests recently.
Netanyahu’s announcement came after the defense minister, Israel Katz, said Israel would seize large areas of Gaza and add them to its so-called security zones, apparently referring to an existing buffer zone along Gaza’s entire perimeter. He called on Gaza residents to “expel Hamas and return all the hostages,” saying “this is the only way to end the war.”
Hamas has said it will only release the remaining 59 hostages — 24 of whom are believed to be alive — in exchange for the release of more Palestinian prisoners, a lasting ceasefire and an Israeli pullout. The group has rejected demands that it lay down its arms or leave the territory.
Netanyahu visits Hungary
Netanyahu arrived in Hungary early Thursday on his second foreign trip since the world’s top war crimes court issued an arrest warrant against him in November over Israel’s war in Gaza.
Based in The Hague, Netherlands, the the International Criminal Court has said there was reason to believe Netanyahu and former Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant used “starvation as a method of warfare” by restricting humanitarian aid to the Gaza Strip, and intentionally targeted civilians in Israel’s campaign against Hamas — charges that Israeli officials deny.
ICC member countries, such as Hungary, are required to arrest suspects facing a warrant if they set foot on their soil, but the court has no way to enforce that and relies on states to comply. As Netanyahu arrived in Budapest, Hungary said it will begin the procedure of withdrawing from the ICC.
Plans for Gaza
On Sunday, Netanyahu said Israel plans to maintain overall security control of Gaza after the war and implement US President Donald Trump’s proposal to resettle much of its population elsewhere through what the Israeli leader referred to as “voluntary emigration.”
Palestinians have rejected the plan, viewing it as expulsion from their homeland after Israel’s offensive left much of it uninhabitable, and human rights experts say implementing the plan would likely violate international law.
The war began when Hamas-led militants attacked southern Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, killing around 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and taking 251 hostages, most of whom have since been released in ceasefire agreements and other deals. Israel rescued eight living hostages and has recovered dozens of bodies.
Israel’s offensive has killed more than 50,000 Palestinians, according to Gaza’s Health Ministry, which doesn’t say whether those killed are civilians or combatants. Israel says it has killed around 20,000 militants, without providing evidence.
The war has left vast areas of Gaza in ruins and at its height displaced around 90 percent of the population.
Israeli strikes on Syria
Separately, Israeli strikes killed at least nine people in southwestern Syria, Syrian state media reported Thursday.
SANA said the nine were civilians, without giving details. Britain-based war monitor The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said they were local gunmen from the Daraa province, frustrated with Israeli military encroachment and attacks in recent months.
Israel has seized parts of southwestern Syria and created a buffer-zone there, which it says is to secure Israel’s safety from armed groups. But critics say the military operation has created tensions in Syria and prevents any long-term stability and reconstruction for the war-torn country.
Israel also struck five cities in Syria late Wednesday, including over a dozen strikes near a strategic air base in the city of Hama.


Germany urges return to 'serious' talks on Gaza truce

Germany urges return to 'serious' talks on Gaza truce
Updated 03 April 2025
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Germany urges return to 'serious' talks on Gaza truce

Germany urges return to 'serious' talks on Gaza truce
  • Speaking alongside Jordan’s King Abdullah II in Berlin, Scholz also called for more humanitarian aid for Gaza

Berlin: German Chancellor Olaf Scholz called Thursday for a return to “serious” negotiations to end the Gaza conflict as Israel pushed on with a renewed assault targeting Hamas in the territory.
“What is needed now is a return to the ceasefire and the release of all hostages,” Scholz said, urging a return to “serious negotiations with the aim of agreeing a post-war order for Gaza that protects Israel’s security.”
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Wednesday that the military was “dissecting” the Gaza Strip and seizing territory to pressure Hamas into freeing hostages still held in the enclave.
The war was sparked by Hamas’s October 7, 2023 attack on Israel, which resulted in the deaths of 1,218 people, according to an AFP tally based on Israeli official figures.
Israel resumed intense bombing of Gaza on March 18 before launching a new ground offensive, ending a nearly two-month ceasefire.
At least 1,066 people have been killed in Gaza since Israel resumed military operations there, according to the health ministry in the Hamas-run territory.
Speaking alongside Jordan’s King Abdullah II in Berlin, Scholz also called for more humanitarian aid for Gaza.
“No humanitarian aid has reached Gaza for a month,” he said. “This cannot and must not continue.”
He added that “a sustainable peace that stabilizes the situation in the West Bank as well as Gaza can only be achieved through a political solution.”
Abdullah II also called for a return to a ceasefire and for aid deliveries to resume into Gaza.
“Israel’s war on Gaza must stop. The ceasefire must be reinstated... and aid flow must resume,” he said.
“The humanitarian tragedy in Gaza has already reached unspeakable levels and action must be taken to immediately address it.”


UN rights chief says ‘appalled’ by reports of Khartoum executions

UN rights chief says ‘appalled’ by reports of Khartoum executions
Updated 03 April 2025
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UN rights chief says ‘appalled’ by reports of Khartoum executions

UN rights chief says ‘appalled’ by reports of Khartoum executions

GENEVA: UN rights chief Volker Turk said Thursday that he was “appalled” by reports of extrajudicial killings of civilians in Sudan’s capital Khartoum last week after its recapture by the army from the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces.
“I am utterly appalled by the credible reports of numerous incidents of summary executions of civilians in several areas of Khartoum, on apparent suspicions that they were collaborating with the Rapid Support Forces,” Turk said in a statement.


Turkiye detains 11 after protest boycott calls

Turkiye detains 11 after protest boycott calls
Updated 03 April 2025
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Turkiye detains 11 after protest boycott calls

Turkiye detains 11 after protest boycott calls
  • The leader of the main opposition CHP party called for the purchase boycott on Wednesday to put more pressure on the government

Istanbul: Turkish authorities on Thursday detained at least 11 people suspected of spreading calls for a blanket boycott of purchases to protest the jailing of Istanbul’s opposition mayor, the official Anadolu news agency reported.
Prosecutors have opened an investigation into the calls, accusing the suspects of inciting “hatred and discrimination,” Anadolu said, adding that authorities were seeking five additional suspects.
The leader of the main opposition CHP party called for the purchase boycott on Wednesday to put more pressure on the government after the March 19 arrest of Istanbul’s popular mayor Ekrem Imamoglu.
Imamoglu is the main rival to President Recip Tayyip Erdogan, and his detention set off a wave of mass protests not seen in Turkiye for more than a decade.
Nearly 2,000 people, including several hundred students and young people, have been arrested since the start of the protests.
Some cafes, restaurants and bars heeded the boycott call and remained closed Wednesday in Istanbul as well as in the capital Ankara, AFP journalists reported.
CHP leader Ozgur Ozel had already launched a call to boycott dozens of Turkish companies and groups reputed to be close to Erdogan’s government.


Israel warns Syrian leader of 'heavy price' if security interests threatened

Israel warns Syrian leader of 'heavy price' if security interests threatened
Updated 03 April 2025
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Israel warns Syrian leader of 'heavy price' if security interests threatened

Israel warns Syrian leader of 'heavy price' if security interests threatened
  • The shelling near the city of Nawa came after an Israeli incursion
  • Syria local govt says Israeli bombardment kills 9 civilians

Damascus: Syria accused Israel on Thursday of mounting a deadly destabilization campaign after a wave of strikes hit military targets, including an airport, and ground incursions left 13 people dead.
Israel said it responded to fire from gunmen during an operation in southern Syria and warned interim President Ahmed Al-Sharaa that he would face severe consequences if its security was threatened.
Israel has carried out an extensive bombing campaign against Syrian military assets since Islamist-led rebels toppled longtime strongman Bashar Assad in November. It has also carried out ground incursions into southern Syria in a bid to keep the forces of the new government back from the border.
Authorities in the southern province of Daraa said nine civilians were killed and several wounded in Israeli shelling near the city of Nawa.
The provincial government said the bombardment came amid Israel’s deepest ground incursion into southern Syria so far.
The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said the dead were local gunmen who were killed “while attempting to confront Israeli forces, following calls by the mosques in the area for jihad against the Israeli incursion.”
According to the Israeli military, its forces were conducting operations in the Tasil area, near Nawa, “seizing weapons and destroying terrorist infrastructure” when “several gunmen fired at our forces.”
They “responded by firing at them and eliminated several armed terrorists from the ground and from the air,” a spokesperson said. There were no Israeli casualties.
“The IDF (military) will not allow the existence of a military threat in Syria and will act against it,” the spokesperson added.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu demanded in February that southern Syria be completely demilitarised and said his government would not accept the presence of the forces of the new Islamist-led government near Israeli territory.
In December, Netanyahu ordered troops to enter the UN-patrolled buffer zone that separated Israeli and Syrian forces along the 1974 armistice line on the Golan Heights.

'Unjustified escalation'
On Wednesday, Israel hit targets across Syria including in the Damascus area.
The Syrian foreign ministry said the strikes resulted in the “near-total destruction” of a military airport in the central province of Hama and wounded dozens of civilians and soldiers.
“This unjustified escalation is a deliberate attempt to destabilize Syria and exacerbate the suffering of its people,” it said in a statement on Telegram.
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz hit back with a warning to Sharaa in which he pointedly referred to the president by the nom de guerre he used as an Islamist rebel commander.
“I warn Syrian leader Jolani: If you allow hostile forces to enter Syria and threaten Israeli security interests, you will pay a heavy price,” he said.
“The air force’s activity yesterday near the airports in T4, Hama and the Damascus area sends a clear message and serves as a warning for the future,” he added..
The Israeli military said its forces “struck military capabilities that remained at the Syrian bases of Hama and T4, along with additional remaining military infrastructure sites in the area of Damascus.”
Israel has said it wants to prevent advanced weapons from falling into the hands of the new authorities, whom it considers jihadists.
Sharaa fought for Al-Qaeda in Iraq after the US-led invasion of 2003 and later set up a Syrian branch of the jihadist network before breaking off all ties.
The Syrian ministry said the Israeli strikes came as the country was trying to rebuild after 14 years of war, calling it a strategy to “normalize violence within the country.”
During a visit to Jerusalem last month, EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said that Israeli strikes on Syria were “unnecessary” and risked worsening the situation.