Saudi GDP up 1.4%, driven by non-oil sector: GASTAT 

 Saudi GDP up 1.4%, driven by non-oil sector: GASTAT 
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Updated 01 August 2024
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Saudi GDP up 1.4%, driven by non-oil sector: GASTAT 

 Saudi GDP up 1.4%, driven by non-oil sector: GASTAT 
  • General Authority for Statistics said oil activities grew by 1.3% quarter-on-quarter from April to June
  • Government activities increased by 3.2% in the second quarter of 2024

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s seasonally adjusted real gross domestic product grew by 1.4 percent in the second quarter of 2024, compared to the previous three months, driven by non-oil activities, official data showed.  

According to the General Authority for Statistics, the Kingdom’s oil activities grew by 1.3 percent quarter-on-quarter from April to June, while non-oil operations expanded by 1.4 percent during the same period.  

Government activities increased by 3.2 percent in the second quarter of this year, compared to the previous three months, the report revealed. 

Strengthening the non-oil sector is crucial for Saudi Arabia as it embarks on an economic diversification journey to reduce its dependence on crude revenues. This transformation is essential for building a more resilient economy that can withstand global oil market fluctuations and ensure sustainable growth for the future. 

 

 

In March, Saudi Arabia’s Minister of Economy and Planning, Faisal Al-Ibrahim, said that non-oil economic activity contributed 50 percent to the Kingdom’s GDP in 2023, the highest level ever. 

The report also highlighted that the Kingdom’s GDP contracted by 0.4 percent in the second quarter compared to the same period last year, attributed to an 8.5 percent decline in oil activities. 

GASTAT, however, noted that non-oil activities expanded by 4.4 percent year-on-year in the second quarter. 

The decline in oil activities was due to Saudi Arabia’s decision to reduce crude output, aligned with an agreement by OPEC and its allies, known as OPEC+.  

To maintain market stability, the Kingdom reduced its oil output by 500,000 barrels per day in April 2023, and this cut has been extended until December 2024. 

Government activities in Saudi Arabia increased by 3.6 percent in the second quarter compared to the same period in 2023. 

Earlier this month, another report by GASTAT noted that Saudi Arabia’s Industrial Production Index increased by 0.9 percent in May compared to the previous month. 

However, the overall IPI declined by 2.9 percent in May compared to the same month last year, driven by a fall in oil activities. 

In July, the International Monetary Fund revealed that Saudi Arabia’s GDP is expected to grow by 1.7 percent in 2024 and 4.7 percent in 2025. 


Saudi Arabia’s capital markets surge with $274bn raised in 5 years, fueled by Vision 2030 growth: S&P Global

Saudi Arabia’s capital markets surge with $274bn raised in 5 years, fueled by Vision 2030 growth: S&P Global
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Saudi Arabia’s capital markets surge with $274bn raised in 5 years, fueled by Vision 2030 growth: S&P Global

Saudi Arabia’s capital markets surge with $274bn raised in 5 years, fueled by Vision 2030 growth: S&P Global
  • Saudi issuers have raised more than $130 billion through US dollar-denominated issuances
  • Market conditions remain favorable, with falling interest rates providing supportive dynamics, S&P said

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s capital markets are experiencing significant growth, with issuers raising over $130 billion in the past five years as the Kingdom accelerates financing for its Vision 2030 plan.

The Capital Market Authority’s 2024-2026 strategy aims to promote investment, attract global interest, and support economic diversification, advancing the nation’s financial sector. 

According to a report from S&P Global, Saudi issuers, including the government and private sector, have raised more than $130 billion over the past five years through US dollar-denominated issuances.

“This comes on top of the $144 billion that they raised locally in Saudi riyal during the same period, with the implementation of Saudi Vision 2030 explaining part of this flurry,” the US-based credit rating agency said.

While the government makes up about 60 percent of these issuances, Vision 2030 has also opened significant opportunities in the non-oil economy and banking system.

Despite the rise in external leverage, market conditions remain favorable, with falling interest rates providing supportive dynamics, S&P said.

“We still expect leverage to remain manageable in our base-case scenario, with private-sector debt to GDP (gross domestic product) staying below the 100 percent mark in the next 12-24 months,” the agency added.

The current market environment is favorable for issuers, with declining interest rates and supportive financial conditions providing a conducive backdrop for sustained capital raising. This trend will continue as the Kingdom pushes ahead with large-scale projects and economic diversification efforts.

Residential mortgage-backed securities market on the horizon

One of the key factors to watch over the next one-to-two years is the potential establishment of a residential mortgage-backed securities market in Saudi Arabia. 

The credit rating agency said that at the end of September, “banks were sitting on more than $175 billion of mortgages that are predominantly at fixed rates and have short-term funding sources, primarily in the form of domestic deposits.”

If interest rates continue to decline, these mortgages could become more attractive for secondary market transactions. The ability to securitize and sell them would allow banks to move assets off their balance sheets, freeing up capital for further lending and investment in Vision 2030 initiatives. 

“This assumes that the legal hurdles relating to the issuance of RMBS are resolved, or at least the risks are floored at a level that would attract local and international investors’ interest,” S&P said.

The Saudi Real Estate Refinance Co., which has an A-/Positive rating, is expected to play a key role in facilitating RMBS market development. 

Direct market issuances could emerge as another avenue for mortgage-backed securities, potentially unlocking significant financial capacity for banks.


PIF launches $4bn 2-part bond

PIF launches $4bn 2-part bond
Updated 43 min 30 sec ago
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PIF launches $4bn 2-part bond

PIF launches $4bn 2-part bond

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund has launched a $4 billion two-part bond, Arab News has been told.

The sovereign wealth fund confirmed that it had sold $2.4 billion of five-year debt instruments at 95 basis points over US Treasuries and $1.6 billion of nine-year securities at 110 basis points over the same benchmark.

The move comes just weeks after PIF closed its first Murabaha credit facility, securing $7 billion in funding, in what was a key step in the fund’s plan to raise capital over the next several years. 

PIF, widely recognised to be Saudi Arabia’s vibrant economic engine, is currently spearheading the nation’s economic diversification efforts, aligned with the goals outlined in Vision 2030. 

PIF manages $925 billion in assets, and is set to increase that to $2 trillion by 2030, a report from monitoring organization Global SWF forecast earlier in January.

Moody’s upgraded the rating of PIF in November, raising it from A1 to Aa3 with a stable outlook, reaffirming the fund’s strong financial position.

The US-based agency gives Aa3 for entities with high quality, low credit risk, and the best ability to repay short-term debts. 

According to Moody’s, the upgrade of PIF’s long-term issuer rating from A1 reflects strong credit linkage between the sovereign wealth fund and the Kingdom’s government. 

The Murabaha credit facility is supported by a syndicate of 20 international and regional financial institutions. 

In a statement at the time of its annoucement, PIF added that the closing of the Murabaha credit facility financing complements the fund’s successful sukuk issuances over the past two years, underscoring the body’s strong financial position and its best-practice approach to debt financing.

In August, PIF obtained a $15 billion revolving credit facility for general corporate purposes from a diverse global syndicate of 23 financial institutions from the US, Europe, and the Middle East as well as Asia. 

In a press statement, the wealth fund said that this credit facility is offered for an initial period of three years and is extendable for up to two additional years. 

A revolving loan is one that can be drawn, repaid and drawn again during the agreed lending period.


Qatar drafting new laws aimed at boosting foreign investment

Qatar drafting new laws aimed at boosting foreign investment
Updated 23 January 2025
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Qatar drafting new laws aimed at boosting foreign investment

Qatar drafting new laws aimed at boosting foreign investment
  • Qatar plans new bankruptcy, PPP, and commercial registration laws
  • Qatar aims for $100 billion FDI by 2030

DOHA: Qatar plans to introduce three new laws as part of a sweeping review of legislation designed to make the Gulf Arab state more attractive to foreign investors, the new minister of commerce and economy told Reuters.
Sheikh Faisal bin Thani said in an interview that Qatar plans to introduce new legislation including a bankruptcy law, a public private partnership law and a new commercial registration law.
“We’re looking at 27 laws and regulations across 17 government ministries that affect 500-plus activities,” he said, describing the legislative review.
Sheikh Faisal said he expects the new bankruptcy and public private partnership laws to be drafted before the end of March.
Qatar, one of the world’s top exporters of liquefied natural gas, has set a cumulative target of attracting $100 billion in foreign direct investment (FDI) by 2030, according to the latest version of its national development strategy published last year.
But it has a long way to go to meet that target, and FDI inflows have significantly lagged behind neighboring Saudi Arabia and the U.A.E.
Saudi Arabia, which also has a target to attract $100 billion in FDI by 2030 as part of its national investment strategy, saw FDI inflows of $26 billion in 2023, after a change to how it calculates FDI, while the Emirates, the Gulf region’s commercial and tourism hub, attracted just over $30 billion according to the UN’s trade and development agency.
In contrast, Qatar’s FDI inflows in 2023 were negative $474 million, down from $76.1 million in 2022. Negative FDI inflows indicate that disinvestment was more than new investment.
While Qatar does offer similar incentives to foreign investors as its neighbors, such as a favorable tax environment, free zone facilities and some long term residency schemes, the U.A.E. and Saudi Arabia are considered far ahead in terms of regulatory reforms and business friendly laws.
Qatar’s new laws also come as part of the Gulf Arab state’s efforts to activate its private sector and transition away from government-funded growth.
Sheikh Faisal joined the government in November after serving at Qatar’s $510 billion sovereign wealth fund, the Qatar Investment Authority, most recently as chief investment officer for Asia and Africa.


Saudi Arabia’s non-oil exports surge 19.7%: GASTAT 

Saudi Arabia’s non-oil exports surge 19.7%: GASTAT 
Updated 23 January 2025
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Saudi Arabia’s non-oil exports surge 19.7%: GASTAT 

Saudi Arabia’s non-oil exports surge 19.7%: GASTAT 

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s non-oil exports surged 19.7 percent year on year in November to reach SR26.92 billion ($7.18 billion), bolstering the Kingdom’s efforts to diversify its economy. 

According to the General Authority for Statistics, chemical products led the growth, accounting for 24 percent of total non-oil exports, followed by plastic and rubber products, which made up 21.7 percent of shipments. 

Building a robust non-oil sector is a key goal of Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 program, which seeks to transform the Kingdom’s economy and reduce its reliance on oil revenues, with  Minister of Economy and Planning Faisal Al-Ibrahim revealing in November that these activities now constitute 52 percent of the  gross domestic product. 

In its latest report, GASTAT said: “The ratio of non-oil exports (including re-exports) to imports increased to 36.6 percent in November 2024 from 34.8 percent in November 2023. This was due to a 19.7 percent increase in non-oil exports and a 13.9 percent increase in imports over that period.” 

The Kingdom’s total merchandise exports fell 4.7 percent year on year in November, weighed down by a 12 percent drop in oil exports. This decline reduced the share of oil exports in total shipments to 70.3 percent, down from 76.3 percent a year earlier, signaling progress in Saudi Arabia’s economic diversification. 

GASTAT reported that China remained Saudi Arabia’s largest trading partner in November, with exports to the Asian nation totaling SR13.53 billion. 

Other key destinations for exports included Japan with SR8.93 billion, the UAE with SR8.75 billion, and India with SR8.74 billion. 

Saudi Arabia’s imports rose 13.9 percent year on year in November, reaching SR73.65 billion. However, the merchandise trade surplus declined by 44.3 percent during the same period, falling to SR16.89 billion. 

China remained the dominant supplier of goods to the Kingdom, accounting for SR20.11 billion of imports, followed by the US at SR7.52 billion and the UAE at SR3.90 billion. 

King Abdulaziz Sea Port in Dammam emerged as the top entry point for imports, handling goods valued at SR18.19 billion, representing 24.7 percent of total inbound shipments. 


Oil Updates — prices extend losses on uncertainty over Trump tariff impact

Oil Updates — prices extend losses on uncertainty over Trump tariff impact
Updated 23 January 2025
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Oil Updates — prices extend losses on uncertainty over Trump tariff impact

Oil Updates — prices extend losses on uncertainty over Trump tariff impact

SINGAPORE: Oil prices dipped in Asian trade on Thursday, extending losses amid uncertainty over how US President Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs and energy policies would impact global economic growth and energy demand.

Brent crude futures fell 38 cents, or 0.5 percent, to $78.62 a barrel by 10:16 a.m. Saudi time in a sixth straight day of losses, while US West Texas Intermediate crude fell for a fifth day, easing 39 cents, or 0.5 percent, to $75.05.

“Oil markets have given back some recent gains due to mixed drivers,” said senior market analyst Priyanka Sachdeva at Phillip Nova. “Key factors include expectations of increased US production under President Trump’s pro-drilling policies and easing geopolitical stress in Gaza, lifting fears of further escalation in supply disruption from key producing regions.”

The broader economic implications of US tariffs could further dampen global oil demand growth, she added.

Trump has said he would add new tariffs to his sanctions threat against Russia if the country does not make a deal to end its war in Ukraine. He added these could be applied to “other participating countries” as well.

He also vowed to hit the EU with tariffs, impose 25 percent tariffs against Canada and Mexico, and said his administration was discussing a 10 percent punitive duty on China because fentanyl is being sent to the US from there.

On Monday, he also declared a national energy emergency. That is intended to provide him with the authority to reduce environmental restrictions on energy infrastructure and projects and ease permitting for new transmission and pipeline infrastructure.

There will be “more potential downward choppy movement in the oil market in the near term due to the Trump administration’s lack of clarity on trade tariffs policy and impending higher oil supplies from the US due to the...drive to make the US a major oil exporter,” said OANDA’s senior market analyst Kelvin Wong in an email.

On the US oil inventory front, crude stocks rose by 958,000 barrels in the week ended Jan. 17, according to sources citing American Petroleum Institute figures on Wednesday.
Gasoline inventories rose by 3.23 million barrels, and distillate stocks climbed by 1.88 million barrels, they said.