How Iran might retaliate for suspected Israeli strike on its Damascus embassy building

Special How Iran might retaliate for suspected Israeli strike on its Damascus embassy building
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Syrian emergency and security personnel search the rubble at the site of an Iranian embassy annex building in Damascus that was hit in an Israeli airstrike on April 1, 2024. At least 13 people were killed, including two Iranian Revolutionary Guards generals and five personnel from the force. (AFP/File)
Special How Iran might retaliate for suspected Israeli strike on its Damascus embassy building
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A top view shows the demolished Iranian Embassy’s consular annex in Damascus, Syria, after it was hit by an Israeli airstrike on April 1, 2024, killing at least 13 people, including two Iranian Revolutionary Guards generals and five personnel from the force. (AFP/File)
Special How Iran might retaliate for suspected Israeli strike on its Damascus embassy building
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People walk past portraits of slain Brig. Gen. Mohammad Reza Zahedi's and Mohammad Hadi Haji Rahimi written "Martyrs of Quds" (Jerusalem), on April 3, 2024 in Tehran, after they were killed in a strike at the consular annex of the Iranian embassy in Damascus. (AFP)
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Updated 10 April 2024
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How Iran might retaliate for suspected Israeli strike on its Damascus embassy building

How Iran might retaliate for suspected Israeli strike on its Damascus embassy building
  • Iran has ‘no choice but to respond’ to attack that killed two IRGC commanders, but the risks are considerable
  • Analysts suspect Iran will use its regional proxies to strike Israel rather than opt for direct assault

LONDON: With bated breath, the world awaits Iran’s promised retaliation for last week’s suspected Israeli airstrike on its embassy annex in the Syrian capital Damascus. Whatever form Teheran’s revenge takes, there is mounting public fear it could trigger an all-out war.

At least 16 people were reportedly killed in the April 1 attack, including two senior commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ extraterritorial Quds Force — Mohammad Reza Zahedi and his deputy Mohammad Hadi Haji Rahimi.




Iran's slain Quds Force commander Mohammad Reza Zahedi. (AFP/File)

A day after the attack, Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi promised the strike would “not go unanswered.” Five days later, Yahya Rahim Safavi, senior adviser to Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, warned that Israel’s embassies “are no longer safe.”

Israel has neither confirmed nor denied involvement in the strike, but Pentagon spokeswoman Sabrina Singh said the US has assessed that the Israelis were responsible.

Middle East experts believe Iran’s promised revenge could take many forms, potentially involving direct missile strikes via one of the IRGC’s proxy groups in the region, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon.




In this photo taken on October 18, 2023, demonstrators gather outside the Israeli embassy in Amman, Jordan, in solidarity with the Palestinians of the Gaza Strip. A high Iranian official has warned that Israel's embassies “are no longer safe” after the Israeli April 1 air strike on the consular building annex of Iran's embassy in Syria. (AFP/File)

“Retaliation seems inevitable. But what form it takes is anyone’s guess,” Ali Vaez, director of the Iran Project at the International Crisis Group, told Arab News.

An attack on an Israeli Embassy “will be on par with what Israel did in Damascus,” said Vaez, but “no one knows for sure what form the Iranian response will take.”

FASTFACTS

• Jan. 3, 2020: Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani killed in a US drone strike in Baghdad.

• Dec. 25, 2023: Seyyed Razi, who headed the IRGC’s logistics and military coordination in Syria, killed outside Damascus in suspected Israeli strike.

• Jan. 20, 2024: Senior Quds Force commander Hajj Sadegh killed when Israel struck a building in Damascus’ Mazzeh neighborhood.

• April 1, 2024: Mohammed Reza Zahedi, his deputy Mohammad Hadi Haji Rahimi, and five other IRGC officers killed in suspected Israeli strike on embassy annex in Damascus.

Israel seems to have taken pre-emptive measures. Not only has it bolstered its air defenses and called up reservists, but it also shuttered 28 of its 103 diplomatic missions around the world on Friday, according to the Jerusalem Post, and stepped up security measures around its various consulates and missions.

Stressing that the strike is “unusual,” especially during such “complex and sensitive times,” Eva J. Koulouriotis, a political analyst specializing in the Middle East, believes “Tehran has no choice but to respond.”

She told Arab News: “Tel Aviv, which chose to assassinate Gen. Zahedi and his companions in the Iranian consulate building in Damascus, was able to assassinate him outside the consulate or at the Masnaa crossing on the Syrian-Lebanese border, or even in his office in the southern suburb of Beirut.




Rubble is cleared at the site of an Iranian embassy annex building in Damascus that was demolished by an Israeli airstrike on April 1, 2024, killing at least 13 people were killed, including two Iranian Revolutionary Guards generals and five personnel from the force. (AFP/File)

“However, the choice of this place by the Israeli leadership, which is also the residence of the Iranian ambassador, is a message of escalation addressed directly to Khamenei and the IRGC.”

Koulouriotis did not discount the possibility of an attack on an Israeli Embassy.

“Last December, an explosion occurred near the Israeli Embassy in New Delhi, without causing any casualties,” she said. “Although no party claimed responsibility for the attack, there is a belief in Israel that Iran had a hand in this bombing.

“Therefore, in my opinion, Tehran will take a similar step in the future without claiming responsibility for the attack, but it will not be a direct response to the attack on the consulate in Damascus due to the sensitivity of this step.”

Notwithstanding, Koulouriotis believes “the Iranian response must be publicly adopted to achieve deterrence on the one hand and to satisfy the popular base of the Iranian regime on the other.

“Therefore, for Tehran to go towards a public and direct attack on an Israeli diplomatic mission in one of the countries of the region will mean a dangerous escalation, not with Israel alone, but with the country in which the attack took place.”




A billboard displays a portrait of slain Iran's Brig. Gen. Mohammad Reza Zahedi with a slogan reading in Hebrew, "You will be punished", at Palestine Square in Tehran. Iranian officials have warned that the latest assassination will not go unanswered. (AFP/File)

Phillip Smyth, a fellow at the Washington Institute and former researcher with the University of Maryland, believes the statement from Khamenei’s adviser Safavi about Israeli embassies was “certainly a threat,” but “the issue is if Iran or its proxies can deliver on that promise.”

He told Arab News: “Other operations, such as in India and Thailand — both involving Lebanese Hezbollah — failed. There is a lot of intelligence pressure on these types of operations, too.”

Vaez of the International Crisis Group concurs that a response would be “a very difficult needle to thread for Iran.”

He said: “Tehran doesn’t want to fall into an Israeli trap that would justify expanding the war but also can’t afford to allow Israel to target Iranian diplomatic facilities at no cost.”

Smyth, an expert on Iranian proxies, agreed that a conventional direct retaliation, such as using ballistic missiles as its military did before to target US forces and Kurdish sites in Iraq, “could open up the Islamic Republic to more direct strikes by Israel.”

In 2020, Iran responded to the unprecedented US assassination of Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani at Baghdad Airport with a direct attack on US troops, launching a barrage of ballistic missiles at the Ain Al-Assad base in Iraq.




Razi Moussavi (L), a senior adviser for Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), is shown with Quds Force commander Qasem Soleimani in this undated handout picture released by the Tasnim news agency on Dec. 25, 2023. Moussavi was killed by an Israeli strike in Syria on Dec. 25, 2023, while Soleimani was killed in a US drone strike in Iraq in 2020. (AFP)

Since the suspected Israeli attack on the Iranian Embassy annex in Damascus, the US has been on high alert, braced for Iran’s “inevitable” response that could come within the next week, a top US administration official told CNN on April 5.   

The US, Israel’s strongest ally, was quick to deny involvement or prior knowledge of the attack and warned Iran not to retaliate against American interests.

“We will not hesitate to defend our personnel and repeat our prior warnings to Iran and its proxies not to take advantage of the situation — again, an attack in which we had no involvement or advanced knowledge — to resume their attacks on US personnel,” Robert Wood, deputy US ambassador to the UN, said in a statement.

US troops in the Middle East, particularly those stationed in Iraq and Syria, have been frequent targets for Iran and its proxies.




Members of Iraq's Al-Nujaba and Kataib Hezbollah militia carry a placard depicting Iranian commander Qasem Soleimani (L) and Iraqi commander Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis as they march during a funeral in Baghdad on December 4, 2023, for five militants killed a day earlier in a US strike in northern Iraq. (AFP)

Smyth said Tehran might resort to using its “well-developed army of proxy groups spread out across the region,” which include Hezbollah in Lebanon, Kataib Hezbollah in Iraq, militias in Syria, and the Houthis in Yemen.

Hezbollah announced on Friday that it was “fully prepared” to go to war with Israel.

In a speech commemorating Jerusalem Day, the group’s chief, Hassan Nasrallah, described the April 1 strike as a “turning point” and said Iran’s retaliation was “inevitable.”




Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah delivers a televised speech during a gathering to mark annual Quds (Jerusalem) Day commemorations in Beirut's southern suburb on April 5, 2024. (AFP)

Middle East analyst Koulouriotis said the most likely first response scenario is that Iran would “give the green light to Hezbollah in Lebanon … to launch a heavy missile strike against a number of cities in northern Israel, the most important of which is Haifa.”

However, “this scenario is complicated and may lead to the opening of an expanded war against Hezbollah that will end with Iran losing the Lebanon card after Hamas in Gaza.”

Tehran might also order its multinational militias in Syria to direct a missile strike against one of Israel’s military bases in the Golan, said Koulouriotis, but this option “is also futile.”

She added: “Moscow may not agree to bring Damascus into a direct conflict with Tel Aviv, which may lead to Assad paying a heavy price, and thus Tehran will have risked the efforts of 14 years of war in Syria.”




Map showing the Golan Heights, Syrian territory that Israel seized during the 1967 Six-Day War.
An analyst said Iran might find Israeli positions in the Golan region an appropriate target as it seeks to respond to Israel's April 1 attack on Iran's consulate building annex in Damascus. (AFP)

As Tehran considers the Damascus embassy annex strike a direct attack “targeting its prestige in the region,” Koulouriotis said it might choose a direct response to Israel using ballistic missiles and suicide drones, “and the Golan region may be suitable for this response.

“Despite the complexities of this scenario linked to the Israeli reaction, which may lead to additional escalation, it saves face for the Iranian regime and sends a message to Tel Aviv that Tehran will not tolerate crossing the red lines.”

Smyth of the Washington Institute believes that while “there may be a (grander) effort to demonstrate a new weapons capability by a proxy or even Iran itself,” Tehran’s response might also take a form similar to the Houthi attacks on shipping in the Red Sea.




Houthi fighters are seen on board the British-owned Galaxy Leader ship that the Iran-backed militia seized as it passed through the Al-Mandab Strait off Yemen in November 23, 2024. (AFP/ File) 

“They’ve already demonstrated attempts to economically harm the Israelis by establishing quasi-blockades of the Red Sea by using the Houthis,” he said.

Meanwhile, communities across the Middle East can only wait with mounting concern for the seemingly inevitable Iranian response, mindful that they will likely bear the brunt of any resulting escalation.

Indeed, it is not so much a question of if, but when.

“The delay in response is mainly related to the indirect negotiations between Tehran and Washington,” said Koulouriotis. “To prevent the Iranian response from leading to an expanded war or a more dangerous escalation in the region.”
 

 


New backlash over Trump plan to move people out of Gaza

New backlash over Trump plan to move people out of Gaza
Updated 15 sec ago
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New backlash over Trump plan to move people out of Gaza

New backlash over Trump plan to move people out of Gaza
  • “We emphasize that Jordan’s national security dictates that the Palestinians must remain on their land and that the Palestinian people must not be subjected to any kind of forced displacement whatsoever,” Jordanian’s spokesman Mohammad Momani said
  • Israel has killed at least 47,317 people in Gaza, the majority civilians according to figures from the Hamas-run territory’s health ministry that the UN considers reliable

JERUSALEM: An idea floated by US President Donald Trump to move Gazans to Egypt or Jordan faced a renewed backlash Tuesday as hundreds of thousands of Gazans displaced by the Israel-Hamas war returned to their devastated neighborhoods.
A fragile ceasefire and hostage release deal took effect earlier this month, intended to end more than 15 months of war that began with Hamas’s October 7, 2023 attack on Israel.
After the ceasefire came into force, Trump touted a plan to “clean out” the Gaza Strip, reiterating the idea on Monday as he called for Palestinians to move to “safer” locations such as Egypt or Jordan.
The US president, who has repeatedly claimed credit for sealing the truce deal after months of fruitless negotiations, also said he would meet Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Washington “very soon.”
Jordan, which has a tumultuous history with Palestinian movements, on Tuesday renewed its rejection of Trump’s proposal.
“We emphasize that Jordan’s national security dictates that the Palestinians must remain on their land and that the Palestinian people must not be subjected to any kind of forced displacement whatsoever,” Jordanian government spokesman Mohammad Momani said.
Qatar, which played a leading role in the truce mediation, on Tuesday said that it often did not see “eye to eye” with its allies, including the United States.
“Our position has always been clear to the necessity of the Palestinian people receiving their rights, and that the two-state solution is the only path forward,” Qatar’s foreign ministry spokesman Majed Al-Ansari said.
Following reports that Trump had spoken with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi at the weekend, Cairo said there had been no such phone call.
“A senior official source denied what some media outlets reported about a phone call between the Egyptian and American presidents,” Egypt’s state information service said.
On Monday, Trump reportedly said the pair had spoken, saying of El-Sisi: “I wish he would take some (Palestinians).”
After Trump first floated the idea, Egypt rejected the forced displacement of Gazans, expressing its “continued support for the steadfastness of the Palestinian people on their land.”

France, another US ally, on Tuesday said any forced displacement of Gazans would be “unacceptable.”
It would also be a “destabilization factor (for) our close allies Egypt and Jordan,” a French foreign ministry spokesman said.
Moving Gaza’s 2.4 million people could be done “temporarily or could be long term,” Trump said on Saturday.
Israel’s far-right Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich said he was working with the prime minister “to prepare an operational plan to ensure that President Trump’s vision is realized.”
Smotrich, who opposed the ceasefire deal, did not provide any details on the purported plan.
For Palestinians, any attempts to force them from Gaza would evoke dark memories of what the Arab world calls the “Nakba,” or catastrophe — the mass displacement of Palestinians during Israel’s creation in 1948.
“We say to Trump and the whole world: we will not leave Palestine or Gaza, no matter what happens,” said displaced Gazan Rashad Al-Naji.
Almost all of the Gaza Strip’s inhabitants were displaced at least once by the war that has levelled much of the Palestinian territory.
The ceasefire hinges on the release during a first phase of 33 Israeli hostages held in Gaza in exchange for around 1,900 Palestinians held in Israeli jails.
On Monday, Israeli government spokesman David Mencer said eight of the hostages due for release in the first phase are dead.
Since the truce began on January 19, seven Israeli women have been freed, as have about 290 Palestinians held in Israeli prisons.
On Monday, after Hamas and Israel agreed over the release of six hostages this week, “more than 300,000 displaced” Gazans were able to return to the north, according to the Hamas government media office.
“I’m happy to be back at my home,” said Saif Al-Din Qazaat, who returned to northern Gaza but had to sleep in a tent next to the ruins of his destroyed house.
“I kept a fire burning all night near the kids to keep them warm... (they) slept peacefully despite the cold, but we don’t have enough blankets,” the 41-year-old told AFP.

Hamas’s October 7 attack on Israel resulted in the deaths of 1,210 people, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally based on official Israeli figures.
During the attack, militants took into Gaza 251 hostages. Eighty-seven remain in the territory, including dozens Israel says are dead.
Israel’s retaliatory offensive has killed at least 47,317 people in Gaza, the majority civilians, according to figures from the Hamas-run territory’s health ministry that the UN considers reliable.
“In terms of the death toll, yes, we do have confidence. But let’s not forget, the official death toll given by the Ministry of Health, is deaths accounted in morgues and in hospitals, so in official facilities,” World Health Organization spokesman Christian Lindmeier said Tuesday.
“As people go back to their houses, as they will start looking for their loved ones under the rubble, this casualty figure is expected to increase,” he added.
 

 


More than 376,000 return to north Gaza since Monday: UN

More than 376,000 return to north Gaza since Monday: UN
Updated 19 min 33 sec ago
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More than 376,000 return to north Gaza since Monday: UN

More than 376,000 return to north Gaza since Monday: UN
  • OCHA: Over 376,000 people are estimated to have returned to their places of origin in northern Gaza
  • “This is our homeland and we have to go back,” said one displaced woman, Ola Saleh

UNITED NATIONS: More than 376,000 Palestinians displaced by the war between Israel and Hamas have returned to northern Gaza, the UN’s humanitarian body OCHA said Tuesday.
“Over 376,000 people are estimated to have returned to their places of origin in northern Gaza, following the withdrawal of Israeli forces from the two main roads along the Netzarim corridor” that leads into the north, OCHA said in a humanitarian update.

Opinion

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Many Palestinians said they were happy to return, even though their homes in northern Gaza are likely damaged or destroyed. Others said the feeling was bittersweet, as nearly everyone has friends or relatives killed by Israel during the 15-month war against Hamas.
“This is our homeland and we have to go back,” said one displaced woman, Ola Saleh.
The ceasefire is aimed at ending the war and releasing dozens of hostages and hundreds of Palestinians imprisoned or detained by Israel.


Paramilitary attacks displace thousands in North Darfur

Paramilitary attacks displace thousands in North Darfur
Updated 28 January 2025
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Paramilitary attacks displace thousands in North Darfur

Paramilitary attacks displace thousands in North Darfur

PORT SUDAN: Thousands of families fled their homes in Sudan’s North Darfur state over two days, the UN’s migration agency said on Tuesday, amid intensified attacks by paramilitary forces.

“Between 25 and 27 January 2025, an estimated 3,960 households were displaced from various villages across El-Fasher locality,” the International Organization for Migration said.

The paramilitary Rapid Support Forces — at war with the army since April 2023 — have captured every state capital in the vast western region of Darfur except for North Darfur capital El-Fasher, which they have besieged since May.

In its latest attempt to capture the city, the RSF last week issued an ultimatum demanding that army forces and their allies leave the city.

The IOM said the displacement occurred due to RSF attacks, which included reported incidents of “looting and burning of personal property.”

Army and allied forces have repeatedly repelled attacks by the paramilitary forces, who local activists said launched intense artillery shelling on residential neighborhoods in the city.

On Friday, a drone attack on the city’s only functioning hospital, which local monitors blamed on the RSF, killed 70 people, drawing condemnation from the UN.

Nearly 1.7 million people are displaced in North Darfur state alone, according to the UN, with an estimated two million experiencing extreme food insecurity and 320,000 in famine.

In the area around El-Fasher, famine has already taken hold in three displacement camps — Zamzam, Abu Shouk and Al-Salam — and is expected to expand to five more areas including the city itself by May, according to a UN-backed assessment.


Protests in Libya disrupt oil loadings at 2 ports

Protests in Libya disrupt oil loadings at 2 ports
Updated 28 January 2025
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Protests in Libya disrupt oil loadings at 2 ports

Protests in Libya disrupt oil loadings at 2 ports

BENGHAZI: Local protesters blocked crude oil loadings at the Es Sider and Ras Lanuf ports in Libya on Tuesday, five engineers said, putting about 450,000 barrels per day of exports at risk.

Laer, Libya’s National Oil Corporation said operations at all oil terminals were continuing normally after communication with protesters. 

In a statement to the NOC dated Jan. 5, the protesters demanded the relocation of several oil company headquarters to the Oil Crescent region, calling for fair development of their coastal area to improve living conditions.

Ports in Libya’s hydrocarbon-rich Oil Crescent include Es Sider, Brega, Zueitina and Ras Lanuf, accounting for about half of the total exports from the country, while several oil companies are based in the capital Tripoli.

“All we want is equality,” one of the protesters Houssam El Khodor said. “The oil is produced in our regions and all we get from it is the toxic fumes.”

The disruption came as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, of which Libya is a member, is due to discuss its policy of gradually increasing oil output after US President Donald Trump’s calls for OPEC to lower oil prices.

NOC said on its official X account that its crude production had reached more than 1.4 million bpd, about 200,000 bpd short of its pre-civil war high. It was not immediately clear if the blockade had affected production so far.

A loading program showed that Es Sider was on track to export about 340,000 bpd of crude in January, with another 110,000 bpd slated to ship from Ras Lanuf.


How conflict created the conditions for Sudan’s deadly cholera crisis

How conflict created the conditions for Sudan’s deadly cholera crisis
Updated 28 January 2025
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How conflict created the conditions for Sudan’s deadly cholera crisis

How conflict created the conditions for Sudan’s deadly cholera crisis
  • War has displaced 12 million people, forcing many into overcrowded camps with poor sanitation and unsafe water
  • Sudan has reported more than 50,000 cholera cases and 1,300 deaths since August 2024, with the true toll likely far higher

LONDON: From displacement camps in Gedaref to overwhelmed hospitals in Al-Jazirah, Sudan’s ongoing cholera epidemic, exacerbated by its brutal civil war, has created a humanitarian crisis of staggering proportions.

Since the cholera outbreak was declared in August 2024, Sudan has recorded at least 50,000 cases and some 1,300 deaths. These numbers are likely an underestimate, however, due to challenges in accessing remote areas and gathering accurate data.

Mohamed Ahmed, the operational deputy head of mission for Medecins Sans Frontieres in Sudan, whose team has been working on the cholera response, described the realities on the ground, the fatigue audible in his voice.

“It’s exhausting,” he told Arab News, shortly after returning from Gedaref, where a 117 percent increase in cholera cases was recorded between October and November 2024, and where a fresh wave of displacement threatens further outbreaks.

People collect clean water provided by a charity organisation to people in Gedaref in eastern Sudan. (AFP/File)


“It’s exhausting because you have to deal with this every single day. It is exhausting to beg to reach the populations that are in need, to speak about it, to advocate for these populations that are in need.”

Cholera’s resurgence in Sudan is far from an isolated event. Historically, the country’s rainy seasons have fueled similar outbreaks, but this latest crisis has been exacerbated by unprecedented levels of displacement and a collapsing healthcare system.

The cholera epidemic currently ravaging Sudan is a grim testament to the devastating impact of protracted conflict on public health. “It is at a scale that we don’t see in many other conflict settings,” said Ahmed.

“The whole of the humanitarian response system in Sudan today is struggling. We are speaking about a magnitude of a crisis that we have not seen in other parts of the world, even including Gaza.”

Sudan has been engulfed in conflict for almost two years, severely limiting access to clean water, sanitation, and medical care. The nation’s healthcare system was fragile even before the conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces erupted in April 2023.

Cholera patients are treated at a clinic in Sudan's Red Sea State. (AFP/File)



The war has decimated medical infrastructure, leaving health workers unpaid for months and facilities devoid of essential supplies. “The healthcare facilities are near collapse,” said Ahmed. “Seventy to 80 percent of health facilities are non-functional.”

The outbreak’s epicenter includes the states of Al-Jazirah, Gedaref, and Kassala — areas already grappling with repeated waves of displacement.

“The ongoing conflict has displaced 12 million people,” said Ahmed. “In Gedaref, where I came from just now, we have 1 million internally displaced persons, straining an already broken system.”

These displaced populations often find refuge in overcrowded schools, bus stations, and abandoned government buildings, where basic sanitation is virtually non-existent.

“In one bus station in Gedaref, we had 17,000 families staying in a makeshift area that is really in a very bad state,” said Ahmed. “There’s a lack of latrines, so people are defecating outside, with a lack of safe drinking water.

“Cholera is largely spread from hand to mouth, so you come in with no food, no water to drink, and the situations they are in, staying in open buildings, crowded gathering sites that absolutely then propagate these kinds of epidemic diseases including cholera.

“And it is not only cholera that is spreading in these conditions. There are many preventable diseases. We are speaking about measles, we are speaking about other vaccine-preventable diseases.”

Christian Lindmeier, a spokesperson for the World Health Organization, highlighted the outbreak’s geographical spread.

“Fueled by heavy rains and flooding, destruction of health facilities, overcrowding and lack of access to clean water in displacement sites and within communities, this new wave of cholera quickly spread to 84 localities in 11 states, with over 51,203 cases and 1,356 deaths reported as of Jan. 13, 2025,” Lindmeier told Arab News.

“The cholera outbreak is occurring at a time when Sudan’s health system is severely weakened by the conflict that has been raging in Sudan for 21 months, causing severe access constraints and security risks where neither health workers nor patients can safely access health facilities or emergency health response can reach the people in need.”

Humanitarian organizations, including the MSF, the WHO, and the UN children’s fund UNICEF, have scrambled to respond to the crisis despite severe logistical and security challenges.

The MSF has established cholera treatment centers and oral rehydration points in hotspots such as Gedaref, which have saved the lives of countless people who would otherwise have quickly succumbed to dehydration.

A health worker wears a protective outfit at a hospital where Cholera patients are treated in Sudan's Red Sea State. (AFP/File)


Eva Hinds, a spokesperson for UNICEF based in Port Sudan, underscored the difficulties faced by aid agencies operating in this complex environment.

“The ongoing conflict makes transporting vaccines and health supplies throughout the country challenging and often tremendously time consuming as permit approvals, checkpoints and consignment inspections can delay the journeys by days or even weeks,” she told Arab News.

“Traveling across this sizable country, particularly during the rainy season, can also be taxing as roads get flooded and infrastructure gets washed away.”

Despite these obstacles, UNICEF has spearheaded vaccination campaigns, reaching 7.4 million people in eight states between August 2024 and January 2025.

However, Hinds warned: “There are limits to what assistance can achieve without meaningful peace and security for both humanitarian workers and the children they serve.”



Bureaucratic red tape and active conflict zones delay the movement of life-saving supplies and medical personnel. Ahmed recounted one particularly harrowing situation in Khartoum state, where clashes between the SAF and RSF have been particularly fierce.

“We had a really quite emotional situation with one of the sites, a hospital that we were supporting but did not have teams on the ground, and we have not been able to send in supplies,” he said.

“We had supplies in our warehouse that we wanted to send but were not able to because it is an intense conflict zone. And of course we have bureaucracies along the way. And in a single day we lost 30 patients.

“The frustrations within my team in not being able to go and not being able to respond or even responding from a distance because the security and the access doesn’t allow us to be there was really super difficult.”

INNUMBERS

• 12m People internally and externally displaced by conflict.

• 70-80% Sudanese health facilities knocked out of action.


Sudan’s health workers have not been spared amid the violence, forced to work in impossible circumstances, with health facilities regularly coming under attack.

“Since the start of the conflict on April 15, 2023, 141 attacks on health (facilities) have been verified causing 240 deaths and 216 among health workers, patients and patient caretakers,” said the WHO’s Lindmeier.

On Jan. 25, around 70 people were killed in a drone attack on the Saudi Teaching Maternal Hospital in the besieged city of Al-Fasher in Sudan’s North Darfur state.

Since the cholera outbreak was declared in August 2024, Sudan has recorded at least 50,000 cases and some 1,300 deaths. (AFP/File)



The assault has been attributed by local officials to the RSF, which is yet to acknowledge responsibility.

Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Ministry has condemned the attack, calling it “a violation of international law.”

Lindmeier called on all parties to respect the sanctity of healthcare and allow safe access to aid workers. “The WHO calls for cessation of hostilities by all parties in Sudan,” he said.

“Peace is overdue for Sudan. Without peace, lives, livelihoods, health and other social service systems will continue to be severely disrupted in the face of the rapidly deteriorating situation with transgenerational effects on the nation.

“We appeal for increased funding from the international community to enable us to support the provision of urgent lifesaving healthcare and outbreak response as we support and rebuild Sudan’s health system, which has been devastated by the conflict.”

The toll on Sudan’s displaced populations has been severe. Children, in particular, bear the brunt of the crisis, accounting for more than 70 percent of cholera cases. Older adults, especially those over 70, have the highest mortality rates.

A man disinfects a rural isolation centre where patients are being treated for cholera in Wad Al-Hilu in Kassala state in eastern Sudan. (AFP/File)



“It’s the image of all the children that we see in these treatment centers as well — malnutrition, cholera — that keeps on hanging on our minds,” said Ahmed, his voice breaking. “And every time we speak to people about this crisis, we see these images.”

The current Case Fatality Rate of 2.6 percent far exceeds the WHO’s recommended threshold of 1 percent, underscoring the dire need for intervention.

Although aid agencies are confident the outbreak can be brought under control, international support remains critical to addressing Sudan’s wider humanitarian crisis. Ahmed highlighted the need for sustained funding and access.

“We are approaching very challenging times, especially for the humanitarian community in 2025, with the magnitude of what we are seeing and as well the changes that we see in global dynamics,” he said.

“Donors must honor their promises and prioritize Sudan. We cannot turn a blind eye.”